What's the DNR's final Deer count report going to be?

[leech~~]

What are your bets for this years final DNR Deer hunt total? 4th 3rd 2nd largest take ever!!! 

[picksbigwagon]

judging by the lack of "concerns" raised so far, I will say it is top 5 for sure.  I still have 10 days to go until my deer hunt in Iowa.  We were done there on the weekend of the 13th and saw great sign, a couple of bucks (the big one is still running around down there) and a couple of world class does.  anticipation is high for our group of 8

[leechlake]

23rd best ever.

[mntatonka]

it'll be exactly where they expect it to be, just like it is every year.  When you control the data, it can say whatever you want.

[Getanet]

151,387

 

 

[O.T.C.]

151,388 get a net, I'll 1 up you like on The Price is Right. Talking to a lot of hunters and farmers over the past 3 months and we all have 1 main concern........what happened to the mild winter and fawn production, we are seeing very very few fawns and many lone type does. We know it's bobcats, black bears, coyotes, wolves, but that's our greatest concern because our deer numbers are lower this year then last without the fawn crop, now the wolves are running down some pregnant does etc. and that can't bode well for next fall and if we get a brutal stretch of winter spring it'll be the same if not worse next fall.We can do something about the coyotes but the other 3 predators idk and have any of you heard that fisher's are tough on fawns ?

[SmellEsox]

It would be awesome if the DNR could put out daily harvest info.  Iowa's page gives instantaneous updates on deer harvest for each county.  We are still in the information age aren't we?

[ANYFISH2]

Yeah but we still somehow have to.wait till spring?

My guess is around 160,000.  Because of the 14% increase in buck harvest.

[smsmith]

160Kish would be my guess as well.  I also see plenty of stuff from the DNR indicating we'll have a much less conservative season structure next year.  I predict quite a few more HC and Managed units for next year, and harvest around 180K...exactly what Landwehr said our total kill should be "from now on"

[Todd Caswell]

151,388 get a net, I'll 1 up you like on The Price is Right. Talking to a lot of hunters and farmers over the past 3 months and we all have 1 main concern........what happened to the mild winter and fawn production, we are seeing very very few fawns and many lone type does. We know it's bobcats, black bears, coyotes, wolves, but that's our greatest concern because our deer numbers are lower this year then last without the fawn crop, now the wolves are running down some pregnant does etc. and that can't bode well for next fall and if we get a brutal stretch of winter spring it'll be the same if not worse next fall.We can do something about the coyotes but the other 3 predators idk and have any of you heard that fisher's are tough on fawns ?

Sounds like you should become a full time trapper and help out the deer population, I have never heard of fishers being overly tough on the fawn population but there slightly smaller cousin the "weasel" can raise hell with a chicken coop FYI

[Paradice]

it'll be exactly where they expect it to be, just like it is every year.  When you control the data, it can say whatever you want.

Bingo.  Template in the drawer man. 

The Department of Natural Resources released the final harvest numbers for 2015.  The total harvest was (up%/down%) from last year.  "We knew hunters would have (more/less) success compared to last year due the harvest structure we implemented this year."  Hunters in zone one harvested (more/fewer) deer than last year.  This is not surprising as conditions (have/have not) improved since last season. 

What I'm afraid to look at is the number of fawns taken this year.  They were the boost in numbers.  The fawns sure took a beating in our area. 

[Getanet]

Bingo.  Template in the drawer man. 

Are you concerned that they are manipulating the numbers, or you just don't like how it's presented?

[leech~~]

Their reports remind me of a weather forecast. "It will be partly cloudy in the morning and parlty cloudy in the afternoon.

Cover all bases!

[Paradice]

Are you concerned that they are manipulating the numbers, or you just don't like how it's presented?

I've got no concern that they're fudging the numbers.  I don't think they have a clue what the actual numbers are.  How do you assess how many deer aren't registered?  How do you assess the number of deer killed and not recovered?  How do unregistered deer dynamics change in a year when a zone is one tag only vs managed?  I think fawns are going to make up an alarming portion of the harvest because that's where the numbers are.  When a meat guy walks up on a fawn that only has 20lbs of meat on it, is it "worth" tagging? 

For everyone else reading this, don't bother jumping all over me as if this is an indictment of you specifically or all hunters in general.  I'm only speaking for the people I've encounted over time.  Sadly too many however. 

[ClownColor]

I've got no concern that they're fudging the numbers.  I don't think they have a clue what the actual numbers are.  How do you assess how many deer aren't registered?  How do you assess the number of deer killed and not recovered?  How do unregistered deer dynamics change in a year when a zone is one tag only vs managed? 

Wait what? Maybe all hunters should wear body cams like they want cops too...then the DNR can get a "100%" accurate count!

[certified jumbo]

Oh my! How can this get any better!

 

How does any state, province or country know for sure how many deer are registered,  retrieved or wounded.

 

 

[leechlake]

At some point the DNR takes the number of registered deer and puts it in a statistical model and  uses that data number to make some decisions.   For example, if they know 160k were registered they know 10% weren't registered so they assume 176K were harvested.  They assume 3% were wounded and died so they add the 3% more to the 176k.  

The problem is that they have to make educated guesses and with our DNR, if we are to believe them, they start the season with an assumed deer herd that is inaccurate to begin with.  Garbage in garbage out.

Bottom line, to me, is what I observe in my area.  How many deer do I start seeing in September bow hunting, when I'm driving around, and eventually during the rifle season.  At the end of the day that's all that matters to all of us.  Yes, the DNR has to try to manage but by doing what you believe is right for the deer herd in your hunting area may have more effect than a DNR educated guess.  Easiest is to shoot what is best for your deer herd, providing habitat (if possible) also helps your herd in your area.  Maybe reducing your party size would also be a good thing.  Less hunters usually means less deer killed.

[ANYFISH2]

Paradice, all of this conversation is good, with conversation comes solutions.

Leechlake, I couldn't agree more with the fact that our population estimates are wrong going in to the seasons, especially in the past recent years.  Garbage In garbage out.

Let's hope this will change with updated modeling and more recent population studies.

The problem is most, especially the less involved hunters, rely on our DNR's lead when it comes what we can shoot. They see they can shoot 2 or more, and they believe the population can support it.  Really I can't fault them, that kinda how it should be. Be it nearly impossible to have a 100% accurate estimate  year to year.

We have to remember that there are few us that make a concerted effort to be in tune to the finer workings of the deer we persue.  Most are just there to enjoy their 5 days (dnr estimate of time afield) a year.

Let's all keep working to improve what we can. We can disagree on some points, I would venture to guess we all have the same goal in mind and agree most everything else.  I love the passion for our deer I read on hear.  

[hockeybc69]

Harvest is up 14% over last year at this time.

That equates to a whopping .75 deer per sq mile more than last year statewide.

Bust open the bubbly. Its time to celebrate..... 

[Jameson]

Land area: 79,610.08 sq. mi. Water area: 7,328.79 sq. mi. Total area: 86,938.87

 

79,610.08 x .75 = 59,707.56

 

Last year we had a harvest about 142,000 (right?).  So the we are on pace to harvest about 200,000 deer this year?  Something seems off in the figuring.

 

If we have about 20,000 more deer killed this year it would equal about .25 deer per square mile more than last year.

[smsmith]

 

Bottom line, to me, is what I observe in my area.  How many deer do I start seeing in September bow hunting, when I'm driving around, and eventually during the rifle season.  At the end of the day that's all that matters to all of us.  Yes, the DNR has to try to manage but by doing what you believe is right for the deer herd in your hunting area may have more effect than a DNR educated guess.  Easiest is to shoot what is best for your deer herd, providing habitat (if possible) also helps your herd in your area.  Maybe reducing your party size would also be a good thing.  Less hunters usually means less deer killed.

I agree with you completely.  The problem is a great majority of deer hunters have zero idea what the deer herd looks like in their areas from year to year.  All they know is the DNR sold them a license and/or a bonus tag, therefore its "ok" to fill them.

[O.T.C.]

Hear ya Todd but I think there's basically only 1 of the 4 predators that a guy can trap. Black Bears ? Wolves ? Bobcats aren't that numerous so you're saying nail the coyote, well we will but they flood back in as fast as we shoot them out. Got 59 2 years ago and the gang said I think there's more here now then after we killed # 59. We need mange really bad. Rifle season really disturbs the coyotes for awhile but they'll be back in May sniffing out fawns with the bears and wolves. I do notice a huge difference here vs my dads with fawns, many are hiding right by my dads house 50 yards away as we have no dogs, those survive, in my area here most have dogs and most don't have hideable cover so close to their home where a doe would feel safe leaving her fawns so they're out there with the yotes heavy.

PS. They'll be back sooner then May lol, they're out there just slippery now because they know with their 6th sense trouble has been out and about. December 25th full moon, will do my (our) best.

[reinhard1]

As of the third weekend of Firearms season there were 128,174 deer registered.  The final numbers will be out in January after muzzy and bow are over.  "officially" it will be the deer numbers that were registered.  I would say the "official" number will be under 140,000 this year.  No way to figure out the actual numbers of deer that were not registered.  good luck.

[O.T.C.]

My gut feeling a little is also opening day was huge weather wise and likely helped put a lot of deer down compared to the winds the year before, once opener was done there was very little shooting a bunch of us heard the rest of the way, which is generally a normal thing but fairly ok opener weather for a change kinda helped boost the kill.

[SmellEsox]

My gut feeling a little is also opening day was huge weather wise and likely helped put a lot of deer down compared to the winds the year before, once opener was done there was very little shooting a bunch of us heard the rest of the way, which is generally a normal thing but fairly ok opener weather for a change kinda helped boost the kill.

Spot on!  They are often quick to blame bad weather, standing corn, el nino, or the price of tea in China, etc. for bad harvests but slow to give perfect weather conditions credit for higher harvests.