Strong 2016 El Niño Predicted - Warm Winter For Midwest

[JIvers]

Supposedly there is now no doubt of a strong El Niño for the upcoming winter: http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/strong-el-nino-noaa-update-october2015

I've heard these sort of predictions before, only to see them be flat-out wrong. (Wasn't the winter of 2013-14 supposed to be warmer than average?) Putting my skepticism aside, assuming this year's predictions are right El Niños typically bring warm, dry winters to the upper Midwest. Not to ignore the other potential effects of El Niño, such as flooding in the west, but for the purposes of this forum a strong El Niño would mean poor ice-fishing.

The last big El Niño occurred in 1997-1998. I was living in Winona then, and I don't even remember what sort of ice conditions we had that winter. We have had a warm October so far, and if that pattern continues I may be putting a lot of miles on my vehicles this upcoming winter looking for good ice. I may also have my boat on the Mississippi well in to December or January, something I haven't done in a few years now. Just have to wait and see what actually happens, I guess.

 

 

 

[tacklejunkie]

I remember grouse hunting that year of the last big El Niño. It was about a week before Xmas and we were hunting just wearing sweatshirts. So, if this one us like that one, were in for a short, dry, mild winter

[Mike Stark]

Farmer's Almanac says something a little different.  Only time will tell!

Farmer's Almanac's 2016 Winter Weather Forecast

 

 

[RebelSS]

And the OLD Farmer's Almanac is even different. Too many Farmers Almanacs around.

 

 

Just wait 'til El Nino collides with that Polar Vortex, then the weather sensationalizers will have to come up with a whole new weather bling phrase. 

Edited October 12, 2015 by RebelSS

[leech~~]

All I see on either map is cold and snowy. Looks like I'm still ice fishing and snowmobiling!

[redneckdan]

Maybe we will only get 48" instead of +60" up here this winter...

[JIvers]

I can't be sure, but it might have been the fall of 1997--the last strong El Niño--when I was shotgun-hunting second season in Zone 3, and wearing a red t-shirt with a blaze orange baseball hat and orange plastic safety vest when I went on stand in the afternoon. It was about seventy degrees and sunny. That would have been the week of Thanksgiving. Aside from the bugs it was nice for sitting, but bad for seeing deer.

[Mike Stark]

NOAA came out with there winter predictions today.  Looks like they are calling for a stong El Nino as well.  

NOAA Winter Outlook

[JBMasterAngler]

Hmmm, better setup my march vacation a week or 2 earlier 

[nofishfisherman]

I can virtually guarantee that it will be a mild winter.  I just bought a new Toro Snowblower so now I know we won't be getting a lot of snow.  

I'm sure we'll still get enough cold to give me 6" of good ice to walk on, that's all I need.  Its even better if we don't get a lot of snow to make pulling the ice house harder. I don't mind walking and there are a lot of people who won't go out until they can drive so I won't have to deal with as many crowds.

Also another mild winter would be really good for the deer herd. Last winter was pretty mild in terms of snow so a 2nd one in a row would really help the herd rebound.

 

[ssom08]

It's probably going to be a late ice year for us southern MN guys..back up to above normal temperatures the rest of the week with no cold on any of the weather models.

[Mike89]

I'm looking into a snowblower too!  not sure if I should now!

[knoppers]

I was thinking of getting a new snowmobile this year, maybe I will wait another year. I guarantee if I bought a new sled, we will not get any snow this winter.

[Boar]

I bought two sleds 3 years ago and couldnt ride them for the first seaon and had them out 3 times the second season, this my fault. I need to sell my sleds. I just bought a 4 wheeler, so now im sure i wont be ice fishing with it.

[JIvers]

I did my best to counter-act the snowblower/snowmobile purchase jinxes by getting both my outboards running well at the same time just this past week.

Having my open-water stuff all ready for a warm winter of fishing below the lock and dams on the Mississippi should bring at least a little cold weather.

 

[Hoey]

Tough it out this year w/o a blower and pick one up later in the winter/early spring when you can save a couple of honey-bees.

[Boar]

 been thinking alot since this topic cam up, we alway get on ice.regarless. i cant think of a year where it was later than mid jan for big houses, which means, portable and wheeeler, well befor that. so its really nuthing to worry about, we were prety spoiled last year, nature balances things out, think of all the  breaks the fish willmget if there isnt the mass of perms out prior to the first of the year. good forfish populatins. not say perms genocide fish populations, but the numbers of people on the lake wont be as high. a slow ice formation can be a good thing,  lots of snow can be too.

[WARHMR]

Usually, we can tell by how much fat is on the deer we shoot. 

As far as the fat content, there was tons of fat! May be a harsh winter.

[Mike Stark]

Well it looks like El Nino is here...

[JIvers]

Well it looks like El Nino is here...

Except for the part about "drier than normal winters" in the Upper Midwest.

We most definitely have the warmer than normal temps, but at least in east central Iowa we have had a whole lot of rain, more than normal for this time of year.

So, not only are we not going to have ice to fish on the lakes and ponds here any time soon, but the rivers are running high and dirty. Best of both worlds.

[JIvers]

I went out to my garden yesterday morning here in east-central Iowa and picked some fresh lettuce. I last picked lettuce in mid-November, but in the month since it has grown enough to get another small batch.

Today I went to the mall in Coralville and optimistically picked up some ice-fishing stuff. I was wearing sandals and shorts, and was quite comfortable doing stuff outside in between rains showers.

[JIvers]

With my ice fishing season done, I figured I would come back to this thread.

Typically, I first make it out on the ice in the first week of December, either in southeast Iowa or southeast Minnesota; this year, thanks to The Child, I made my first ice trip on New Year's Eve. That was to Clear Lake in north central Iowa.

I usually make my last ice trip here around March 7 or 8. This year, I was done ice fishing in east central Iowa on February 21.

My last trip of the season, usually in southeast Minnesota, is normally in the second half of March. I just made my last trip on the ice for this season on March 5, also to Clear Lake, Iowa.

No more El Niños for a few years, please.

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