Expected worst Deer harvest in 20 years!

[jay83196]

Fancy....wow!

Bottom line you guys can argue it all day it won't happen...anybody thinking they will close the firearms season is kidding themselves! It's a different world from the 70's and way too much money involved. Its already Bucks only or lottery (with veey few tags given) in a large part of the state, maybe go to statewide buck only but never closed. Majority of guys will still hunt no matter how bad hunting is we do it for the enjoyment to get away and spend time with buddies/families its not always about getting a deer (but that would be nice!).

[B. Amish]

easy winter and the population could basically double.

nasty winter and the population could shrink.

[hockeybc69]

I cant find it but I know I have seen that deer hunting is a 4 billion industry to the state... or it could have been hunting in general. Either way, deer hunting is the vast majority of whatever the number is.

Never happen. So we should focus on what we CAN do to ensure long term quality deer hunting.

[hockeybc69]

Quote:

easy winter and the population could basically double.

So we are at about a million deer this year prehunt.... if we have an easy winter you are saying we go to about 2 million deer?

You might want to check the math on that prediction. I think you have a few holes you might want to patch up in the formula.

[Getanet]

I should clarify my point. I don't believe the DNR should close the season, but I think if this year's harvest comes in as low as it's trending, and if this winter is about as brutal as last year, I believe it is something the DNR will at least to put on the table for discussion...

They were predicting a harvest of about 120K this year. So far, we've only registered 67,000 for archery and firearms. In a typical year about 70% of the total harvest is opening weekend of the firearms season, so we have a long way to go to get there. By my calculations we'll be lucky to break 90K.

[B. Amish]

So we are at about a million deer this year prehunt.... if we have an easy winter you are saying we go to about 2 million deer?

You might want to check the math on that prediction. I think you have a few holes you might want to patch up in the formula.

million deer?

prehunt vs after hunt.

think some more.

[FshBloodRiverMud]

The area i am hunting this year once again; has tons of deer. No need to close the season there. It would be nice if it would finally go from a lottery zone to at least a hunters choice zone. SW MN. There's no way the bucks can breed all the does in that area. You see 10 does to every buck. It's crazy lopsided.

[Todd Caswell]

I wonder how many of the people complaining of low deer numbers took advantage of bonus and intensive harvest permits in the past?my guess would be nearly everyone..

I remember when deer numbers were too high and on a trip from Brainerd to Blackduck we counted 21 road kills, not sure that's were we want our numbers at either.

[Todd Caswell]

The area i am hunting this year once again; has tons of deer. No need to close the season there. It would be nice if it would finally go from a lottery zone to at least a hunters choice zone. SW MN. There's no way the bucks can breed all the does in that area. You see 10 does to every buck. It's crazy lopsided.

In those areas wouldn't it make sense to do what most states d and make it a Buck Lottery? Boy that would cause a stir with all the horn hunters.

[96trigger]

Quote:

The area i am hunting this year once again; has tons of deer. No need to close the season there. It would be nice if it would finally go from a lottery zone to at least a hunters choice zone. SW MN. There's no way the bucks can breed all the does in that area. You see 10 does to every buck. It's crazy lopsided.

The biggest problem I am having with deer management is that you will probably go from lottery to intensive harvest. I have always had a problem with intensive harvest. I think it drops the population too fast, then a bad winter or 2 and the population crashes. I know that the data doesn't support many people taking 5 deer, but once you can take 5 deer, your whole mindset of deer hunting changes. Just like a lot of people are finding out now with only getting one deer tag throughout most of the state. The experience is different when you have one tag and its "the tag" compared to having 5 tags in your pocket. I would also argue that how hunters see deer is different as well. 5 tags makes deer seem like varmints, a nuisance animal, why even register them. One tag makes you feel lucky to even see a deer. I dont' think anyone in the state should EVER be able to harvest more than 3 deer in a season. The 5 deer intensive harvest is causes too big a shift in the population, especially on consecutive years, and in conjunction with harsh winters. More gradual drops or increases in population would work much better, also decreasing the effect mother nature might play. I think right now the DNR is too extreme on both sides. Not quiet enough and it's all lottery, a few too many and it's intensive harvest.

[hockeybc69]

Quote:

million deer?

prehunt vs after hunt.

think some more.

prehunt... about a million according to the DNR.... we will come in at a kill of 100k this year.... so still about a million will be alive after the season ends....

Whats about a million??? Your guess is as good as mine, but double whatever it is, and you are saying it could be 2 million next year. Thats some good recruitment.

[hockeybc69]

Quote:

I wonder how many of the people complaining of low deer numbers took advantage of bonus and intensive harvest permits in the past?my guess would be nearly everyone..

No doubt. How many people of the deer hunting population follow forums, read DNR reports, spend lots of time in the woods.... etc.... Sadly, the vast majority are weekend warriors I am afraid... how are those people going to make any informed decisions? They are told here is what you can shoot and they do it.

Ask 100 people what the DNR prehunt population estimates are for the previous 10 years, what the population goals are for each area, what the overall harvest totals were over that same period of time, etc....

Very few know it, and how many would even know where to go find the info? Not very many.

People trust what they are given. And here we are now.

[smsmith]

prehunt... about a million according to the DNR.... we will come in at a kill of 100k this year.... so still about a million will be alive after the season ends....

Whats about a million??? Your guess is as good as mine, but double whatever it is, and you are saying it could be 2 million next year. Thats some good recruitment.

I think to the DNR "about a million" means anywhere from 500k to 2 million

[B. Amish]

think of it this way.

10 deer.

5 are does and average twins = 15

3 are fawns and have 1 between them = 4

2 are bucks = 2

10 deer turn into 21 with max recruitment (easy winter). i don't care what the state population is or anybody says it is.

[smsmith]

think of it this way.

10 deer.

5 are does and average twins = 15

3 are fawns and have 1 between them = 4

2 are bucks = 2

10 deer turn into 21 with max recruitment (easy winter). i don't care what the state population is or anybody says it is.

Twin fawns around here have been rare the last few years. Last I checked the recruitment rate the DNR states is 1.9, that's not going into season...that's at fawn drop. Consider fawn mortality before season starts and you're a lot closer to 1 than 2. I have not had any doe fawns drop fawns the following year the last several years either, so throw that number out.

Your 21 becomes a lot closer to my 15

[96trigger]

Quote:

No doubt. How many people of the deer hunting population follow forums, read DNR reports, spend lots of time in the woods.... etc.... Sadly, the vast majority are weekend warriors I am afraid... how are those people going to make any informed decisions? They are told here is what you can shoot and they do it.

We pay people to do this. I think that is what most are upset about. People that own land and are familiar with their deer herd can make informed decisions. Unfortunately, that is a small percentage of hunters. That means the rest rely on the DNR to give accurate information.

[BuckSutherland]

think of it this way.

10 deer.

5 are does and average twins = 15

3 are fawns and have 1 between them = 4

2 are bucks = 2

10 deer turn into 21 with max recruitment (easy winter). i don't care what the state population is or anybody says it is.

You do know your original number is 19 correct?? Then you have to figure.

3 will be eaten by wolves

1 will be killed by a bear

1 will die from natural causes

1 will be hit by a car

1 will be poached

So I think 10 maybe turns into 12 next year.

[creepworm]

I wonder how many of the people complaining of low deer numbers took advantage of bonus and intensive harvest permits in the past?my guess would be nearly everyone..

It would also be interesting to see how many people complaining of low deer numbers were in the Fill the freezer with does and let the little bucks walk crowd.

Two of the most vocal members of this site when it comes to deer population were in this crowd not even 10 months ago. Interesting how fast a person can change their cause, isn't it?

[B. Amish]

You do know your original number is 19 correct?? Then you have to figure.

3 will be eaten by wolves

1 will be killed by a bear

1 will die from natural causes

1 will be hit by a car

1 will be poached

So I think 10 maybe turns into 12 next year.

i don't have wolves so i don't factor them. no bear either.

5 + 3 + 2 = 10.

[B. Amish]

Twin fawns around here have been rare the last few years. Last I checked the recruitment rate the DNR states is 1.9, that's not going into season...that's at fawn drop. Consider fawn mortality before season starts and you're a lot closer to 1 than 2. I have not had any doe fawns drop fawns the following year the last several years either, so throw that number out.

Your 21 becomes a lot closer to my 15

and the last couple winters weren't easy, were they?

and the dnr number i'm sure is an average.

i'm talking easy winter, which would probably be above average, right?

that's why i said a tough winter could cause population to actually drop instead of increase at all.

[Todd Caswell]

Also wonder how many people still have meat in the freezer from YEARS past, had a very avid deer hunter try to pawn some veni from 2010 on me a couple weeks ago, in the next breath he told me it looked to be a very disappointing season for there group for putting fresh meat in the freezer, very little sign and no doe permits.

[BobT]

We pay people to do this. I think that is what most are upset about. People that own land and are familiar with their deer herd can make informed decisions. Unfortunately, that is a small percentage of hunters. That means the rest rely on the DNR to give accurate information.

Maybe however, those same people are most likely making that decision based on a 20 acre plot and not the entire hunting area.

The herd in one small area could be very robust due to various factors including feeding and baiting that goes on while just a short distance down the road the population may be depleted.

[smsmith]

It would also be interesting to see how many people complaining of low deer numbers were in the Fill the freezer with does and let the little bucks walk crowd.

Two of the most vocal members of this site when it comes to deer population were in this crowd not even 10 months ago. Interesting how fast a person can change their cause, isn't it?

If by any chance you're referring to me...I haven't shot a doe in MN or WI for at least 6 years. In fact...I haven't shot a deer in MN...EVER.

I will admit that I was a strong QDM advocate for several decades. I still practice those principles, but I have a real problem with the "A" part of QDMA. In areas where shooting a doe doesn't negatively impact the herd overall, I still believe taking a doe is a better practice than shooting a yearling buck. The problem is, in much of MN the herd has been decimated. I don't believe the folks at QDMA ever thought it was possible to actually reduce a deer herd by more than half in a decade through shooting does. QDM teaches an "adequate" harvest of does. We've gone well past that point in much of MN.

[96trigger]

Quote:

Maybe however, those same people are most likely making that decision based on a 20 acre plot and not the entire hunting area.

The herd in one small area could be very robust due to various factors including feeding and baiting that goes on while just a short distance down the road the population may be depleted.

I agree, which is why we pay the DNR to let us know what the populations as whole is. My 20 acres could be loaded with deer, so 5 deer looks great and manageable, 2 miles down the road there are none. The present way of keeping track of deer numbers is not working.

[smsmith]

Also wonder how many people still have meat in the freezer from YEARS past, had a very avid deer hunter try to pawn some veni from 2010 on me a couple weeks ago, in the next breath he told me it looked to be a very disappointing season for there group for putting fresh meat in the freezer, very little sign and no doe permits.

That captures a big part of the problem in a few short sentences. Why so many hunters feel it necessary to "fill the freezer" when they don't even enjoy venison that much is beyond me.