The Weather

[The Grebe]

Does anyone have any idea where to get an accurate weather forecast?

I've worked outside for years, summer and winter and as the years progress, I've hoped for better forecasting, but as the technology gets better, it seems our forecasts get worse and worse?

Last week we were held hostage for 2 or 3 days with the threat of this big snow storm moving into the metro....in the north metro we got maybe 3 flakes!

"1 inch when you wake up in the morning, look for a slippery comute. 3 additional inches during the day and as much as 10 inches further south!"

Did anyone see any of this? I know they got some snow further south, but did anyone in the state of Minnesota see 10 inches of the white stuff?

This week we are being held hostage again, they have some type of snow predicted just about everyday, including today and the sun is shining big as you please?

Each channel on the tv, local and cable, have something else to say and the computer is different yet...how the he11 is someone supposed to make plans, with these varied reports?

One would think that aviators would have to have something a little more accurate then what we get?

Am I missing something here with these weather reports? Anyone out there have any better leads?

[outdoorsman1972]

I think the weather people should be docked pay for inaccurate reports. If anyone else failed to their job well they would be not be with that employer very long. I think the weather person has the most secure there is. Where else can you make mistakes on a daily basis and still keep your job.

[rosspj59]

Grebe, I wish I knew of one that was even close to reliable. Last fall before going to mille lacs we always checked the wind reports. Of course they were usually wrong. I hate getting up extra early for week on the forecast of inches of snow and nothing happens. It seems weather patterns are constantly changing overnight. Maybe weather has become more unpredictable due to jet stream irregularities and other recent environmental factors that being debated currently. Grin and bear it, I guess.

[The_Duckslayer]

I have always and will always maintain that the only thing that the weatherman can tell you for sure is what the high temp was that day. Have a good one and N Joy the Hunt././Jimbo

[Bobby Bass]

I work outside 6 months of the year and the only thing I pay any attention to is the local radar to see if there is any rain, other then that there is not a thing I can do about the weather. A 100 years ago even less then that really you looked at the sky and went about your business. A return to a more simple time I don't even look at the temp any more, I put the dogs out if they pee on the deck it's cold, if they pee off the deck it's ok and if they run across the yard it's darn right nice outside

[LaVoi]

If forecasters could consistently be right about just one thing-the wind-then I would be happy. The thing that really gets to me is if a wind under 10mph is predicted, you get set up on the lake and then you are facing 20mph winds. That is what gets me disgruntled, especially while fishing out of a portable.

[Ihateriversnags]

If you're looking for a good weather radar especially come spring and summer time when watching severe weather you should check out wunderground. (attach all the appropriate web phrase before and after) They have a great weather radar.

[WxGuy]

The forecast for Rochester was 6" and we got a little more. Caledonia got 9" of snow.

[The Grebe]

That dude should get a raise! It should be that way all over, but I think the weather people are trying to go to far in every direction and it seems that they are wrong more then they are right?

[Skeets]

Think about this, the weather forecasters are just "guessing" to the best of their judgement.

They can see the fronts come thru, and depending on the track of the storm, they can be accurate or inaccurate.

I really think they do the best job they can do, the only way to be more accurate is to fast foreward time, and then rewind.

If this could be done, I should of done that for the powerball picks this past weekend!

[Dan Thiem]

Just get a weather rock. They never lie. Always extremely accurate!

[Captain B.R.K]

Weather Rock Is that like your decoder ring

You are telling me the weathermen on TV: our very own Rob Koch, Paul Douglas and Dave Dahl are wrong somedays?!? You gotta be kidding me, right

They told me we were NOT suppose to get any snow tonight and here I stand looking out my window with a pretty good dusting on the cars in the parking lot!

And you are telling me they can be wrong sometimes

You do have to give them some credit though...they are trying to read the atmosphere, winds, trends, etc. with molding out a decent weather report for us. So you know they are trying but I think sometimes technology gets the best of em'. I love it when Paul Douglas says (every night) "check the computer."

As much as it makes us mad or disgruntled, it still is fun to see them get it right somedays and then just bambozzle us with a off the wall report!

[Cyberfish]

Yeah the weather rock!

Just set it outside then in an hour check it.

If it feels cold, then its cold out

If it feels warm, it is sunny

If it is wet, it is rainy

If it is white, it is snowing

if it moves a foot, its windy

If its gone, TORNADO!

[Captain B.R.K]

but what if that rock was a grain of salt Then when it dissolved, would we say "the sky is falling"

[The Grebe]

Ch. 9 news tonight...."A batch of snow is moving in...Stay tuned for the forecast at 9 to see how much we are going to get?!"

Well, "We" aren't getting anything! What that forecast turned out to be, is a dusting up north and some snow in and around the New Richmond Wisc. area!

Now that is what I call accurate, right to the minute weather forecasting......for the people up north somewhere and those in New Richmond! How does that help the rest of us?

Weather forecasting is not a new science, Doppler Radar and tons of high tech equipment, should allow them to make more then a "Guess" at what we are going to get?

I can make my own "Guess", by watching what the cat does and how bad my wifes knee aches! Cheez!

I know I'm tired of it, but since it is the only game in town and there is nothing I can do about it except occassionally voice my displeasure, I guess, having done that, I'll just grin, bear it and shut up!

[jacheesehead]

My favorite forcast, I think it was George Carlin, went like this..... "clear and cloudy with a slow dry drizzle, impending darkness tonight with increasing light in the morning". As a fisherman, watching the map for Highs and Lows coming in is about the best value to get from the forcast. I agree, if I made that many mistakes in my job I'd be gone....but when it comes to weather, that's the nature of the beast....unpredictable! If you don't like the weather, hang around five minutes, it'll change.

[BLACKJACK]

I agree with you cheesehead, its the nature of the beast, the weather is unpredictable. Within hours, they can predict pretty good, but if you're 4-5 days out, forget it. My pet peeve is that the talking weather heads are mostly concerned about the Twin Cities, forget about outstate.

The best HSOforum that I've found is the national weather service (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/) You can get the localized forcast for your part of the state and you can find the hourly forecasts. I use that for bowhunting in the fall - I even get up early on a morning hunt and double check the wind before I go out to see if its going to shift. If you check the verbage on this site and compare it to weatherunderground or weather.com, they all get their info from the Nat. Weather Service site.

[Dotch]

As one whose livelihood depends on the weather, (am out in it everyday) I use many sources of info, including my own experience that sometimes includes all kinds of little intangibles, even things like animal & insect behavior. Accuweather, Weather Underground, NOAA weather radio, DTN, etc. are some of the sources I use. NOAA of course is all NWS info but the others offer the same NWS inof for your area. Accuweather and Weather Underground will tend to forecast out furrther, a couple weeks but that info is only useful to get general trends, not specific precip amounts. It's nice to at least have an idea when to cut hay, haul manure, when to spray, when to scout fields, or know when in the overall scheme of things to mow the lawn for that matter so it gets done. The sources don't always agree but coupled with radar loops, satellite loops, surface analysis maps, etc., one can get a pretty good handle on the potential for precip or major temperature change anyway. To pinpoint precip to an area is difficult so have to hedge your bets. As Wx Guy pointed out, SE MN where my mom lives received close to the amount of snow forecast whereas we merely got sideswiped. The forecast here was for 3" - 9" and we got close to 3". Watching the radar to the west as the storm approached, became evident that was the track it was going to take coming out of NE. That cold front really packed some punch! It also froze many of the kudzu patches harboring Asian soybean rust in parts of FL.

I agree, the worst forecasts for outstate MN IMO tend to be those on Twin Cities TV or radio unless we're in the weather doldrums as we were back in January. At least Belinda is nice to look at and she comes across as a genuinely nice person...

[Keith_MN]

I would have to say that the one weather pet-peeve that I have is the WIND. Why is it so difficult to forecast the wind?

Nothing worse than going up to Mille Lacs expecting light breezes and running into 20+ mph winds and 2 foot rollers.

The wind forecast in my local paper is laughable. Today they might forecast light breezes for tomorrow (4 - 8 mph) and then tomorrows paper will predict 16 - 20+ mph winds for the day. How is that possible?

I tend to rely on weatherunderground (Contact US Regarding This Word) for my weather. It's not perfect, but it doesn't often mislead me either.

[V-12 Merlin]

As a pilot that's not rated for flying on instruments ("VFR-only"), I can truly understand everyone's frustration with weather forecasts. I've scheduled flights on a forecast for good weather, and it has been bad. If they say it's going to be bad, and I cancel the flight, then sometimes it clears up and I look like a chicken.

On the other hand, I've always seen forecasts more than a day or two out as a total guess. Even a forecast for later today is partly a guess. Heck, even when I look up and try to figure out what the weather will do in the next hour or two, it's just a guess.

We have DTN weather at the airport, and the radar can be helpful, but there's only one constant when it comes to weather - change. What I've noticed, however, is that there are certain times of the year when the weather is fairly predictable, and other times when it's totally unpredictable. This year has been kind of weird, but generally it seems like we go through a period where the weather doesn't change much from day to day, punctuated by weather that changes by the minute.

As a pilot, I sometimes curse at the weather - and the forecasts - but have learned that the key to survival is to recognize that there's no fooling with Mother Nature, she does what she wants, and my only choice is to be ready for anything.

[juggs]

I've given up trusting the weatherman. I've come to the conclusion it must be a tough job because there are too many intelligent weather people who are wrong so often. The weather is way over rated anyway. We live in MN and do pretty much what we want outdoors under less than ideal conditions. The weather doesn't stop us from much. What really bugs me is all the time they spend on the news telling us what's going to happen in the next 36 hours. Tell me what the temp is supposed to be, how much wind and what the sky will be like. Forty-five seconds then give me more sports.

[Cyberfish]

How bout

Red sky at nite, fishermens delight

Red sky in morning, fishermen take warning!

[marine_man]

Cyberfish -

That's the only weather forecast I trust... and that has almost never let me down...

marine_man

[CrappieJohn]

I trust the weatherman before I trust fishermen. I don't pay much heed to what the weather offers and fish unless the winds blow me off the lake, river or wherever I plan to fish.

Fishermen, on the other hand, will lie thru their teeth to keep me from going to where the fish are really at.

So enough already with dunning the poor weather dudes out there. And let me get back to my lying....I see someone getting close to the honey hole.

[icetroller]

Live in Fargo. National weather service predicted couple inches in Fargo today with heavier snow North. That happened. Then at about 11:30am they announced a winter storm warning with high winds and 6 to 12 more inches of snow between 11:30am till 9:00 pm tonight. Well by 3:00 pm this afternoon the sun was shineing and pretty light winds and obviously no more snow. How can they be that wrong !! I mean that wasn't even close. It started clearing up shortly after they announced the storm warning, and weather got nicer the rest of the day. That is really missing big time..