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Luckiest Team?

LMITOUT

By LMITOUT
in Football

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LMITOUT Grand Master

LMITOUT

Posted
Posted

Two years ago the Brett Favre-led Packers topped this list as the luckiest team. At the time, my Packer-fan brother-in-law astutely observed that my model was not measuring luck. Rather, it was measuring "Favre-ness." Then last year, the Favre-led Jets topped this list going into the final games of the season, while the Favre-less Packers became the unluckiest team.

Guess which team tops the list this season. The Favre-led Minnesota Vikings are the luckiest so far in 2009, with 2.7 more wins than we'd expect given their general on-field performance. This is not a knock against Favre. In fact, my Win Probability Added (WPA) analysis put him at the top of the MVP list as the player who has contributed most to his team's success. Maybe my brother-in-law is right.

Then again, maybe it has more to do with missed last-second field goals, a weak schedule, and some good old-fashioned luck. In terms of efficiency (yards per play), the Vikings don't look that great on paper. On offense they are 9th in pass efficiency, 18th in run efficiency, 14th in fumble rate, and 1st in interception rate. On defense they are 13th against the pass, 10th against the run, and 26th in interception rate. Overall, they are 13th in the league in penalty yards per play. Yet the gods of football are smiling on the Metrodome, blessing the Vikes with the third best record in the NFL at 10-2.

Luck13.jpg

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Rick Grand Master

Rick

Posted
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Who cares,

woulda coulda shoulda o my....

we're 10-2 anyway you choose to crunch the numbers laugh

The Pack could be tied with us if they'd won one of those games against us. But they didn't. Oh well guess we should just talk it up to luck. grin

We all know who the better team is LMIT and....

we all know Favre says this is the BEST team he's ever been LUCKY enough to be on. laugh

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harvey lee Grand Master

harvey lee

Posted
Posted

Who cares,

woulda coulda shoulda o my....

we're 10-2 anyway you choose to crunch the numbers laugh

The Pack could be tied with us if they'd won one of those games against us. But they didn't. Oh well guess we should just talk it up to luck. grin

We all know who the better team is LMIT and....

we all know Favre says this is the BEST team he's ever been LUCKY enough to be on. laugh

If the Queens don't start to play better, the Pack will tie them for the Divison.

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croixflats Grand Master

croixflats

Posted
Posted

Thinking back when the pack started to turn around I was thinking it may be possible to see them again, did not want to admit it, but after analyzing teams that figured out our defense it has come to a real possibility when you consider the newly extended contract of an inept head coach who is so predictable and finalizes each and every game plan that is to be played and apposing teams can figure out what the offense will do its a no brainer . Way to go Ziggy. The thing is when the two teams meat the favor goes to the Vikes but not to extended play for the Vikes. My opinion, beet it down but thats the way I see it being a realist. Hopefully I am wrong,

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zepman Grand Master

zepman

Posted
Posted

Packers can tie us up record wise Harvey but it won't do them anygood since we have the tie breaker over them...it would take a miracle for this to happen now.

The Pack is on a nice run right now though...let's hope the Bears break their stride a little today.

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james_walleye Grand Master

james_walleye

Posted
Posted

Originally Posted By: Rick
Who cares,

woulda coulda shoulda o my....

we're 10-2 anyway you choose to crunch the numbers laugh

The Pack could be tied with us if they'd won one of those games against us. But they didn't. Oh well guess we should just talk it up to luck. grin

We all know who the better team is LMIT and....

we all know Favre says this is the BEST team he's ever been LUCKY enough to be on. laugh

If the Queens don't start to play better, the Pack will tie them for the Divison.

They played exactly 1 bad game, not 3 in a row. If they cr@p the bed today, maybe you have a case.

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james_walleye Grand Master

james_walleye

Posted
Posted

Two years ago the Brett Favre-led Packers topped this list as the luckiest team. At the time, my Packer-fan brother-in-law astutely observed that my model was not measuring luck. Rather, it was measuring "Favre-ness." Then last year, the Favre-led Jets topped this list going into the final games of the season, while the Favre-less Packers became the unluckiest team.

Guess which team tops the list this season. The Favre-led Minnesota Vikings are the luckiest so far in 2009, with 2.7 more wins than we'd expect given their general on-field performance. This is not a knock against Favre. In fact, my Win Probability Added (WPA) analysis put him at the top of the MVP list as the player who has contributed most to his team's success. Maybe my brother-in-law is right.

Then again, maybe it has more to do with missed last-second field goals, a weak schedule, and some good old-fashioned luck. In terms of efficiency (yards per play), the Vikings don't look that great on paper. On offense they are 9th in pass efficiency, 18th in run efficiency, 14th in fumble rate, and 1st in interception rate. On defense they are 13th against the pass, 10th against the run, and 26th in interception rate. Overall, they are 13th in the league in penalty yards per play. Yet the gods of football are smiling on the Metrodome, blessing the Vikes with the third best record in the NFL at 10-2.

Luck13.jpg

Indy is .1 behind us and the second luckiest team in the league. I always knew they were really not that good....LOL. Oh and followed by Cinnci and NO, the best 4 records in the NFL lead the list. I guess they all got their records by being lucky and not good LOL.

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