Moon/Rut predictions

[Cooter]

Hope I didn't miss this topic elsewhere......but according to those who predict the rut off moon phase what are we supposed to see this year? Pre-rut, chase, lock down, etc. I need to plan my vacation - which I have some of this year finally! I tend to stick with the first week of Nov as my ideal time to hunt, but doesn't hurt to factor in the moon theory.

[mntatonka]

Charles Alsheimer's data shows that the seeking phase should begin 3-4 days before the second moon after the autumnal equinox. The second full moon is Nov 10. So the seeking phase should generally start opening weekend of firearms season.

Next year will be a bit earlier, right before Halloween.

[Musky Buck]

I will go way out on a limb and in my area the rut will take place between 7:00pm and 6:00am. Daylight rutting behavior has been pretty much non-existant the past 5 years or so in my area. SOme of it due to warmth potentially and most of it due to insane pressure from us hunters.

[Archerysniper]

I normally start to see the chasing starting around the 23rd of Oct the does are not ready but they are getting pushed around hard. Hopefully this cold weather stays I have a good feeling for next weekend. I have also take my 2 biggest bow kills on the 23rd,one pushing does down the ridge and the other on a drag line on the edge of a bedding are with golden estrus.

[JIvers]

The rut will peak the first week in November like it does every year. The rut happens because of the decreasing amount of daylight, which increases hormone production in deer. Moon phases, temperatures, etc. have no bearing on when pre-rut and the peak of the rut happen.

What moon phases, daily weather, crop harvest, hunting pressure, and other factors do affect is how deer behave during the rut. For instance, warm weather and a full moon with clear skies during the rut allows deer to be more active at night. Hunting pressure during the day makes deer move around more at night as well.

Two years ago, IIRC, we had a lot of corn in the field during the start of first shotgun season in SE Minnesota. We also had a full moon and warm nights the first part of the week. That made for less-than-ideal hunting, to say the least. The deer were still in rut like they always are the first week of November, but they were in the corn and moving at night.

My advice is take your vacation the first week of November with no hesitation, since the harvest is progressing well this year.

[smnduck]

+1

[mntatonka]

I suggest you take a look at Charles Alsheimer's research. Considering deer have glands near their eyes that are triggered by not only changing light conditions, but the amount of moonlight, the rut is directly correlated to the second full moon after the autumnal equinox. Granted, there's a small cushion of time depending on the temperature, but that's about it.

2010 for example, the majority of deer didn't really start pushing until mid-November, and that fit in with what I saw in my area. There haven't been more than a couple of years where Alsheimer's data wasn't spot on in my area, and those years were the really warm years we had not that long ago

[JIvers]

I suggest you take a look at Charles Alsheimer's research. Considering deer have glands near their eyes that are triggered by not only changing light conditions, but the amount of moonlight, the rut is directly correlated to the second full moon after the autumnal equinox. Granted, there's a small cushion of time depending on the temperature, but that's about it.

2010 for example, the majority of deer didn't really start pushing until mid-November, and that fit in with what I saw in my area. There haven't been more than a couple of years where Alsheimer's data wasn't spot on in my area, and those years were the really warm years we had not that long ago

Alsheimer's study (an outlier against what every other study I'm aware of has found, in addition to what I've seen myself) seems to confuse factors that affect behavior during the rut with the timing of the rut itself. Warm weather does not push the rut back, just like cold spells do not push it forward--warm weather just makes deer less active during the day.

Keep in mind that the "peak" of the rut is really the first rut of the fall--two more ruts come at the beginning of December, and the beginning of January. Female fawns born in the spring usually do not come in to heat for the first rut, or the "peak", and some adult does are missed as well.

There is less activity during the second and third ruts, but rutting behavior does not end in mid-November. A few years ago I shot a buck that was hot on a doe opening weekend of second season, which would have been around November 17-21. There was plenty of rutting activity two weeks before when I was out checking on things.

[Bear55]

I have paid attention to Alsheimer's stuff for over a decade now, I think he is onto something but it is not a peak of the rut prediction. When I look at my notes many years he was just dead wrong. The peak of the rut (or chase phase as in the best time to hunt) in our area happens the same week every single year.

What I think Alsheimer is into is a small peak in rut activity that the moon could trigger in some doe's. We have to remember the doe's are coming into heat all fall from late Oct on so because you see a got doe does not mean the rut is in full swing. I do think the moon might be able to trigger some does into heat at the same time and cause a flurry of activity that might otherwise be a more spread out without the moon. Just a theory based on what I have seen and compared it to the whole Moon/rut activity.

[surewood]

I agree with eyehunter. They start chasing about the same time every year here. And it always seems to peak around November 8th to about the 15th from what I've saw. I still see deer during the full moon, but less activity during daylight. Can't go wrong with the first week of November. I go on vacation October 22nd to November 14th.

[JIvers]

Yes, I do agree that moonlight could have some affect on the timing of the rut, so Alsheimer is not necessarily wrong.

But I have seen and read nothing else to suggest moonlight plays a dramatic role in the timing of the rut--everything points to diminishing daylight and the resulting spike in hormone levels being the dominant factor in the timing of the rut.

[Bear55]

I go on vacation October 22nd to November 14th.

I am straight up jealous surewood, I take a couple days off to bowhunt and a full week rifle season but Oct 22 to Nov 14 would be like a dream come true.

[LOTWSvirgin]

Just got to keep hunting till it happens I got oct 12-nov-7th for it to happen

[surewood]

I have very good vacation benefits. I was off the first two weeks of October just got back to work. Now if the wind stops I can get after it. The insanity starts. Hoping the 150" 160" Buck I have pics of starts moving.

[B. Amish]

moonlight and moon phases affects more in nature than people realize.

moon cycle: 28 days

women's menstrual cycle: 28 days

ask any grade school teacher how the kids act when there is a full moon.

no doubt in my mind that the moon has a bearing and influence on the rut.

but, if you're hunting mn, there is no reason not to bowhunt the week before rifle opener. it's gonna be your best bet 95% of the time.

hard to gauge the rut sometimes when the orange army hits the woods. deer change their behavior in response to all the human activity. so, it's hard to know what they would or should be doing if the orange army wasn't a factor.

all kinds of factors affect how a single hunter percieves the rut. two guys huting the same section could have two totally different perceptions of the rutting activity.