What Kinds Of Things Can Happen...

[Rick]

What kinds of things can happen globally or more local that would turn society or your community on it's head and what can be done to mitigate it?

[delcecchi]

Obvious ones.... EMP attack.  Power grid computers get hacked and the grid goes down.   Financial system crashes in some way that can't be immediately patched, like what 2008 almost turned into.  Banks all shut down, etc

[nofishfisherman]

Most of the things I can think of would be somewhat localized.  EMP, power failure, storm/weather could all be sizable but still nothing that would likely impact the nation as a whole so while life could get interesting for awhile in the impacted area there would be available assistance from outside sources to help get control of the situation and prevent a complete brake down of society.  Prevention would mostly be related to ensuring the power grid is maintained with fail safes built in to prevent wide scale issues.  Hard to guard against weather and storms beyond being smarter about where we choose to live and continually improving our building practices to better withstand whatever mother nature can dish out.  On an individual level having a supply of some basic emergency supplies would probably be enough to keep you alive long enough.

 

Something that would be more frightening would be something like a disease that ends up being easily transmittable with a high mortality rate.  There would potentially be little we could do to stop the spread once it got beyond a certain point.  Depending how far it spread and how long it lasts it could have potentially catastrophic implications.  

 

 

 

[pushbutton]

"Quick" game changers will be what has always pretty much been......super volcano type thing, big rock from space, gamma radiation burst from somewhere,  some type of airborne containment, magnetic shenanigans. Odds are pretty slim in our lifetime, but all will happen again. 

[delcecchi]

On 8/22/2019 at 12:57 AM, pushbutton said:

"Quick" game changers will be what has always pretty much been......super volcano type thing, big rock from space, gamma radiation burst from somewhere,  some type of airborne containment, magnetic shenanigans. Odds are pretty slim in our lifetime, but all will happen again. 

Big rock in the CONUS, agreed.  EMP would take out the whole country, coming from a nuclear detonation in space.   Basically destroy the power grid and the telecom grid, unless those folks have taken precautions they haven't advertised.    

Major earthquake like New Madrid.   Yellowstone Caldera supervolcano...  Mount Ranier erupts (local but with national effects as yet undefined.).   Major Tsunami on either coast.   

 

Major disease epidemic like 1918 spanish flu only worse.   Natural mutation or human intervention.   Ebola, whatever.  Virus so antibiotics don't help.    

 

Nearby supernova.   Super large solar flare.   Change in ocean currents causing major transition in climate (that has got europe scared bad.  look at how far north most of Europe is.   It is as warm as it is due to a warm current that starts out as the gulf stream.     If anything were to happen to that.....   

 

Here is a real interesting map, with europe superimposed over north america.  Paris ends up on Canadian border.  Berlin is north of Winnipeg.     It would be quite a lifestyle change, eh?  

 

 

[Duffman]

Catastrophe or not, access to fresh water will always be a concern for us humans.

We're lucky here in MN, there are pretty much sources nearby for most of of our population.

I've got 4 different purifiers for shiat hitting the fan scenarios.

They are in my bug out bags.

 

Parts of this country would be truly farked if access to plentiful water ceased.

It's already happening in parts, at a slow pace though.

It will be one of the biggest issues facing our species in the next 100 years.

[Wanderer]

On 8/20/2019 at 9:26 PM, Rick said:

What kinds of things can happen globally or more local that would turn society or your community on it's head and what can be done to mitigate it?

 

I play this game all the time time at work.  Interesting topic to be posted here.  

 

We refresh our Hazard Vulnerability Analysis (HVA) on an annual basis and run Emergency Preparedness drills based on our highest scoring items.  We use the Kaiser Permanente model.  The struggle with HVA’s is getting a group to agree on the scoring of each item.  Based on the past year’s experience, people’s perspectives change.  But thats actually the point of doing an annual review.

 

Since I like to keep work and play separate, I’ll just leave those comments without citing examples.  Look up the model to get some more ideas if you like.  It can be a looong conversation!

 

Water is usually near the top of the list so Duff is right on track 

Edited August 25, 2019 by Wanderer

[Mike89]

very interesting and thanks for the thoughts too!

[Rick]

Let's not forget a crop failure scenario.  Looks like the world food supply is going to be down a lot for 2019. 

[delcecchi]

17 minutes ago, Rick said:

Let's not forget a crop failure scenario.  Looks like the world food supply is going to be down a lot for 2019. 

Just listening to a podcast talking about the oranges in Florida.   Basically going away from an unstoppable disease.   Irish potato famine due to a fungus that destroyed the whole crop, and that was all they had to eat, thanks to their English conquerors.    

[Big Dave2]

I think the only types of catastrophic incidents we would ever realistically expect to see here in our neck of the woods would be winter storm related or some other way of interrupting the power and water supply.

Edited January 27, 2020 by Big Dave2

[Wanderer]

Coronavirus.

 

It’s not just a catchy name for a hangover. 

[Big Dave2]

19 hours ago, Wanderer said:

Coronavirus.

 

It’s not just a catchy name for a hangover. 

 

OK. So what types of things should we do to prepare for such an outbreak? 

 

Maybe have enough supplies on hand so you and your family wouldn't have to leave the house for a month?

[Rick]

3 hours ago, Big Dave2 said:

 

OK. So what types of things should we do to prepare for such an outbreak? 

 

Maybe have enough supplies on hand so you and your family wouldn't have to leave the house for a month?

That's a good start. Get a few N95 respirator masks, rubber gloves and wrap around safety glasses. Elderberry syrup and cabbage are good to resist the virus or at least minimize the effects.. Cabbage will last 3 months in your fridge. 

 

Wash your hands anytime you go out of a quarantine zone with soapy hands in hot water for at least 20 seconds.

 

If someone does get sick, keep them in a bedroom, keep them hydrated and nourished.  Don't let them wander the house spreading germs. Wash hands thoroughly after leaving any area sixk person frequents. Disinfect bathroom after every use and disinfect bedroom after illness runs it's course.

 

Sounds like when a person coughs they spray the germs. You touch it then transfer it to your face or other areas where it gets inside you and it's off to the races. Similar to flu. Those that die usually do so because of resulting pneumonia. 

 

The difference between this and flu is the fact that many of us have immunity to the flu. Not so with coronovirus. 10s of thousands die in the US each year from the flu...so multiply that because of lack of immunity.

[Big Dave2]

21 minutes ago, Rick said:

That's a good start. Get a few N95 respirator masks, rubber gloves and wrap around safety glasses. Elderberry syrup and cabbage are good to resist the virus or at least minimize the effects.. Cabbage will last 3 months in your fridge. 

 

Wash your hands anytime you go out of a quarantine zone with soapy hands in hot water for at least 20 seconds.

 

If someone does get sick, keep them in a bedroom, keep them hydrated and nourished.  Don't let them wander the house spreading germs. Wash hands thoroughly after leaving any area sixk person frequents. Disinfect bathroom after every use and disinfect bedroom after illness runs it's course.

 

Sounds like when a person coughs they spray the germs. You touch it then transfer it to your face or other areas where it gets inside you and it's off to the races. Similar to flu. Those that die usually do so because of resulting pneumonia. 

 

The difference between this and flu is the fact that many of us have immunity to the flu. Not so with coronovirus. 10s of thousands die in the US each year from the flu...so multiply that because of lack of immunity.

 

Well, yeah......but I'll probably just do nothing and let the coronavirus pass right on by like all of the other pandemics that haven't effected me or my family one bit.

[Rick]

8 minutes ago, Big Dave2 said:

 

Well, yeah......but I'll probably just do nothing and let the coronavirus pass right on by like all of the other pandemics that haven't effected me or my family one bit.

I hope you're right. It is looking less likely by the day though.

[Big Dave2]

2 minutes ago, Rick said:

I hope you're right. It is looking less likely by the day though.

 Less likely for what?

 

[Wanderer]

6 confirmed cases in the US as of this morning. 110 people “under investigation”.   The CDC is checking airline records for travelers to the hot zone and have additional screening set up at 20 airports.

 

Risk in the US is still considered LOW for the general population but of course that could change if we do nothing.

 

I’m not saying the sky is falling but those that need to pay attention to things like this are on high alert.

[Rick]

51 minutes ago, Wanderer said:

6 confirmed cases in the US as of this morning. 110 people “under investigation”.   The CDC is checking airline records for travelers to the hot zone and have additional screening set up at 20 airports.

 

Risk in the US is still considered LOW for the general population but of course that could change if we do nothing.

 

I’m not saying the sky is falling but those that need to pay attention to things like this are on high alert.

Exactly right. Especially folks over 60. Don't wait until the last minute to TRY to get the basics. Mortality rate is much higher in that age group.

[Rick]

5 hours ago, Big Dave2 said:

 Less likely for what?

It's sounding more like a Global risk by the day. So less likely your assesment is right...although I do hope you are.

 

The World Health Organization (WHO) said Monday the global risk from the deadly coronavirus was “high,” admitting it made a mistake in previous reports that rated the risk of the virus as “moderate.” 

 

The United Nations health body said in a situation report published Sunday that the risk was “very high in China, high at the regional level and high at the global level,” and explained in a footnote there had been an error in reports published Thursday, Friday and Saturday which incorrectly said the global risk was “moderate.” 

 

Some health experts estimate up to 100,000 people could be infected.

 

Chinese health officials are warning that the deadly coronavirus could be much more contagious than initially thought, as infected patients can spread the flu-like illness before showing any symptoms. 

 

China’s National Health Commissioner Minister Ma Xiaowei announced during a press conference Sunday the virus is infectious during its incubation period of one to 14 days, and its ability to spread is increasing. 

 

The official said authorities have limited knowledge on the new virus and are unclear on the risks posed by the mutations of the virus. 

 

A longtime adviser to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. William Schaffner, told CNN the new development means “the infection is much more contagious than we originally thought.” 

 

Schaffner called it a game changer and warned current preventative methods won’t be enough to fight off the outbreak since tracking down the contacts a patient had before experience symptoms complicates the situation. 

[leech~~]

3 hours ago, Wanderer said:

I’m not saying the sky is falling but those that need to pay attention to things like this are on high alert.

 

I think what the DNR does works pretty good. Start shooting everyone in a 5 mile radius of any one found with it!

[pushbutton]

We will soon see. China just let the outside world in, and we should soon start seeing non Chinese state sponsored reports. So far it looks like the deaths are from the already sick and old, which usually works it self out as not a global destroying menace. 

[Big Dave2]

10 hours ago, Rick said:

It's sounding more like a Global risk by the day. So less likely your assesment is right...although I do hope you are.

 

The World Health Organization (WHO) said Monday the global risk from the deadly coronavirus was “high,” admitting it made a mistake in previous reports that rated the risk of the virus as “moderate.” 

 

I'm not saying it isn't a risk but I'm not too worried about it. The Risk in China is high, the risk where I live is very low.

 

10 hours ago, Rick said:

 

Some health experts estimate up to 100,000 people could be infected.

 

Probably 95,000 will be Chinese.

I'm pretty sure I have more to fear from regular influenza or Leech's rapture.