Bear Lottery 2013

[LindellProStaf]

I keep looking for when we can apply for this years Bear permits and all I find is "will be available late March" It can't get much later March than this..... Anyone else know anything about it?

[SandPoint]

http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/hunting/bear/index.html

Here you go. They definitely cut the permits.

[LindellProStaf]

Hi Sand point. I checked this site again and can't find the bear application part. I go to licenses then to the chart for bear application and hit go. It is not one of the options when I go further. Am I doing something wrong?

[LindellProStaf]

I just talked to the DNR license dept. They looked it up for me and they will be available April 1. That is why it doesn't come up online.

[SandPoint]

hmmm, I seen it on there so I just assumed the application link was working.

[jerkbait]

I noticed this year there is a fee to apply. They really did drop the number of permits this year.

[Scoot]

I'll apply to unit 44 this year. I've got three points. I see there are 450 tags there this year- anyone know how many tags there were there in the past? What's the best guess at my chance to draw?

Thanks!

Scott

[SandPoint]

Not too long ago there was close to 9000 in the quota areas. With 3 preference I would say you will get drawn. When there were more permits I have been drawn two years in a row with only one point and worst case every other year with one point. I think you will get one.

[Archerysniper]

I'll apply to unit 44 this year. I've got three points. I see there are 450 tags there this year- anyone know how many tags there were there in the past? What's the best guess at my chance to draw?

Thanks!

Scott

Scoot I'm not much help for that area but I do know you like to dig through the maps and any other info you can get. So here is a link that will show you some of the bear hunting stats from previous years.

Bear hunt info

[Scoot]

Excellent- thanks to both of you! Sniper, you're spot on with that description of me- I love to research, dig, and snoop in preparation of a hunt!

[LindellProStaf]

I think there were 7,000 permits in 2011, 6,000 in 2012, this year what 3,500 or so. Why such a drop. I thought bear populations were going up.

[rkhinrichs]

i got one point. maybe i will get lucky for this year and get drawn!

[Random guy]

Last I spoke with one of the biologist there was concern to many females are being harvested, maybe this has become an issue.

[bwana_d]

Surprised:

• There was not more press about the reduction - specifically the reasoning and intentions
• There was no announcement about the fee
• There was no announcement about the change in the application process - no alternate zone (but of course why would there be based on the reductions)
• Because we saw more bears last year than in any year we hunted since 2001, a lot more

Concerned that there will be some unintended consequences:

• Specifically hunters being less selective because they will only be able to hunt 1 time every 3 - 4 years. I know we passed on bears last year we would have harvested had we known it would be 3 to 4 years before we could hunt again instead of 1 -2.
• We could lose some bear hunter interest which will make for a smaller voice when dealing with the DNR, not that seems to matter this time around
• Lack of transparency will cause more trust issues – what is the target bear population and what is it at now?
• The un-purchased licenses being available on a first come first serve bases hurts those that apply in groups. Personally, I would like to understand more about why the licenses are not being purchased – were they people who got busy and could not hunt, were they animal rights activists using up permits, etc. I would be curious about the number of people buying licenses and bait sites they register or hunt at through a guide. That would help me understand if there is an issue or not with animal rights activists.
• How many more people we move to no quota areas, something our group will be considering because we enjoy bear hunting so much.

Positive outcomes if it stays the same:

• Fewer hunters equals less competition equals more bears at bait sites
• If less bears are harvested, there should be some bigger bears when we finally get to hunt again

[Scoot]

It sounds like the odds are pretty good that I'll draw a bear tag this year. I printed off and read the "2013 Bear Hunt Information" form from the MN DNR HSOforum. I also opened up the Hunting and Trapping Regulation book and found the section on bears. In there it says to see the "Bear Hunting Regulation Book" at the MN DNR HSOforum. However, I can't seem to find this book- can someone please post a link? Given this will be my first bear hunt, I want to have my ducks in a row so I don't do anything illegal or stupid...

[LindellProStaf]

Ya I think due to Rogers and his bear program there are a lot more "bear huggers" out there. They have no idea how much work we put into a bear hunt. Both in time and money not to mention all of the work involved. Sometimes I think about hiring a guide. It might be cheaper in the long run than doing all of the baiting etc. myself. I like to check out your posts Jonny P. Looks like you stay busy.

[certified jumbo]

I'm really surprised that in 2 years we go from 7000 to 3500 permits. Seems like big jump in a short period. In the Duluth News Tribune, the DNR said they would like to harvest to come down some. They are at or have reached there goals and now need to cut back. To read more click on the outdoors section of that paper.

I can tell you where we hunt, there is no shortage of bears. But I cannot speak for everywhere else.

[lichen fox]

Here you go Scoot...these are the regulations from 2012, I would think pretty much everything will stay the same this year but you better keep an eye on the legislature...the 2013 regs should come out by June-July...

just copy and past the link to your address bar

files.dnr.state.mn.us/recreation/hunting/bear/bear_regs.pdf

[Scoot]

Thanks Lichen!

[lichen fox]

Scoot, there is more interesting reading if you go to the DNR HSOforum...hunting/fishing....bear....2012 harvest report...

Jonny...I didn't look real close at this info...but what I took a quick peek at doesn't seem to support an overharvest of females...I'll be reading more, as I'm sure you will!

[sportfish]

I think the dnr biologist needs to step in to the woods before they make up there mines on how many tags to issue !!! I live south west of Mille Lacs lake in zone 45 and there are more Bears now than any time in the last 25 years that I have been in the area . I get more and more bear pics on my trail cams every year and they keep cutting tags ..

[lichen fox]

Here's a snibit of the information in the 2012 Bear harvest report/status of the black bear in Mn from Dave Garshelis from the DNR HSOforum

7-9

Statewide, ages of harvested females declined dramatically during the past 3 decades, as evidenced by a declining median age and increasing proportion of the harvest composed of 1–2 year-olds. Median age of harvested females was 2.9 years old in 2012, closer to the age of harvested males (2.2 years) than in the past. This declining age structure coincided with both a period of population increase, and then a decline (Fig. 10). Variation in median age within individual BMUs is too great to discern short-term trends. The greatest variation is in the northern BMUs. The southern no-quota area (BMU 52), which likely has the highest harvest pressure, has the most consistent female age structure; ages of harvested females in this area are equivalent to BMU 44 and older than BMU 45.

Fig. 10-11

Ages of harvested bears accumulated over 33 years were used to reconstruct minimum statewide population sizes through time (i.e., the size of the population that eventually died due to hunting). This was scaled upwards (to include bears that died of other causes), using tetracycline mark–recapture estimates as a guide. Whereas both the tetracycline and reconstructed populations showed an increase during the 1990s, followed by a decline during the 2000s, the shapes of the 2 trajectories differed somewhat. Therefore, it was not possible to exactly match the curve from the reconstruction to all 4 tet-based estimates, so several curves were scaled to differing degrees to intersect different sets of tet-estimates. Both the tetracycline and age-reconstructed estimates showed a population decline of ~30% from 2001 to 2008. A light harvest in 2008 enabled the population to grow slightly, but it declined again after a heavier harvest in 2009. Reconstructed populations rely on several years of age data, so population estimates for 2011 and 2012 are not yet available.

[lichen fox]

Scoot, I would say you have a good shot to be in! in 2012 there were 2,619 applicants for the 700 available permits in 44...all level 2 and up were drawn for 44 and 28% of level 1,(first year applicants), were also drawn...so if you have 4 pref. points...your odds are huge, even with the reduction of 250 tags, (28%)...even if all the applicants from last year reapply for the same area 44...there will be at least 2,007 of them that have at least a level 2 preference vying for the 450 available permits...I really doubt there will be very many with level 3 or 4, like you have....but that being said, this is only the 3rd or 4th year that we could apply for preference only in 99...so now is when those numbers could start showing up...you may end up with more compitition than you are thinking...will be interesting to watch!

[lichen fox]

"...all level 2 and up were drawn for 44 and 28% of level 1,(first year applicants), were also drawn..."

OOPS! Should have read...

...all level 3 and up were drawn for 44 and 28% of level 2...No first year applicants,(pref. level 1), were drawn...

I guess that changes the odds quite a bit!

[Scoot]

Huh, that's interesting. Right now I have three points. When I apply in the next week or two, will I be applying with three points or do I get the point from this year's application thrown in with it so I'd have four points for this application? Just curious...