Expected worst Deer harvest in 20 years!

[SmellEsox]

I agree with your analysis there Bear55 although I would pull the tail of the black arrow back a couple years. The overharvest started in the mid 2000s.

[fr0sty]

There are a couple things to consider here. One is how well the deer make it through the winter based on winter severity and predation. Those factors will reduce deer #'s by a certain amount, and I would assume to some extent if does abort their fetuses due to stress or lack of nutrition.

The second factor is what spring is like (late, cold, wet) and how that affects fawn survival. Existing deer may have had enough chow to make it through the winter, but does may abort their fetuses or fawns may not survive long after birth due to cold and wet conditions.

I can think of a third factor and that is how many fawns drop around the same time. If they all drop relatively close, then fewer overall will be killed by predators than if they are born over several months. That all goes back to how many does are bred during the primary rut.

Take that for what it's worth. An armature armchair biologist filled with all the latest and greatest information and half truths the internet has to offer!

Always kinda wondered a little about we've had a bad winter lets say, but farmers left 420 acres of corn within the 3 sections that winter. Next is milder somewhat with everything tilled under, which is worse for em ?

[Bear55]

I agree with your analysis there Bear55 although I would pull the tail of the black arrow back a couple years. The overharvest started in the mid 2000s.

I agree with you there, however for a time there was a ton of deer and the extra doe harvest was needed and sustainable.

[smsmith]

Worse harvest in 30 years, hope the DNR is prepared to have the same number of deer hunters as 30 years ago.

Do you think there will be a significant reduction in licenses sold next year? What was the loss in license sales this year? 4%ish?

[sticknstring]

It'll be amusing to see what web the DNR spins this summer/early fall in regards to boosting license sales. I would anticipate at least another 10-20k hunters that will find something better to do opening weekend. How many million in lost revenue before the DNR wakes up?

[smsmith]

It'll be amusing to see what web the DNR spins this summer/early fall in regards to boosting license sales. I would anticipate at least another 10-20k hunters that will find something better to do opening weekend. How many million in lost revenue before the DNR wakes up?

I've been wondering the same thing. Not only is there lost revenue for the DNR...but there's a lot of lost revenue for bars/grills, restaurants, gas stations, sporting goods stores, etc. etc. etc.

[leechlake]

what is the incentive for the state or an individual manager to have an awesome deer herd? I'd bet very few people, if any get fired if the deer herd is in disarray and also no one gets a big bonus if they do some great work that helps to improve our deer herd. I'm not even going to attempt to suggest "privatization" of managing our resources but couldn't there be a way to motivate with financial incentives? That seems to be the normal way to get a salesman to sell more product or a production worker to get more product out the door. If there is no consequence or reward I guess we're relying on an individuals "passion" to do a good job.

[Getanet]

It'll be amusing to see what web the DNR spins this summer/early fall in regards to boosting license sales. I would anticipate at least another 10-20k hunters that will find something better to do opening weekend. How many million in lost revenue before the DNR wakes up?

I would be surprised if there is much of a drop off compared to what they experience in a typical year. There will be lower revenue due to fewer bonus tags offered, but I don't think we're to a point where a large percentage of able-bodied hunters will quit hunting.

Probably a bigger threat to DNR revenue is the continued aging of Baby Boomers. Will we have enough young hunters to replace them?

[smsmith]

I would be surprised if there is much of a drop off compared to what they experience in a typical year. There will be lower revenue due to fewer bonus tags offered, but I don't think we're to a point where a large percentage of able-bodied hunters will quit hunting.

Probably a bigger threat to DNR revenue is the continued aging of Baby Boomers. Will we have enough young hunters to replace them?

That's possible, but even if we lose another 4-5% next year that be a loss of 8-10% in two years. That's a chunk of change, especially if that percentage continues to not buy licenses and the normal attrition occurs due to aging/disinterest/whatever.

If I were the DNR I'd be a bit concerned about hunter retention, not just hunter recruitment.

[leechlake]

for many of us the reason we keep going during the gun season is tradition. We've had zero of our guys quit hunting but the amount of time spent in the woods is way down. It's pretty disheartening to see so few deer, so few tracks, so little sign. Many morning or afternoons a few guys don't even go hunting. We'll split wood or do some tasks instead.

on the other hand the walleye numbers in our lake are very good. I couldn't imagine skipping going out after dinner to fish to do some chores of some sort. It's worth the effort going out when there is a good likelihood of some success.

Deer hunting in Minnesota is bad right now in the majority of the state plain and simple.

[SmellEsox]

what is the incentive for the state or an individual manager to have an awesome deer herd? I'd bet very few people, if any get fired if the deer herd is in disarray and also no one gets a big bonus if they do some great work that helps to improve our deer herd. I'm not even going to attempt to suggest "privatization" of managing our resources but couldn't there be a way to motivate with financial incentives? That seems to be the normal way to get a salesman to sell more product or a production worker to get more product out the door. If there is no consequence or reward I guess we're relying on an individuals "passion" to do a good job.

Define good. If you mean good for hunters/small businesses/taxidermists/sporting goods stores/body shops, they deserve a pay cut. If you mean good for farmers/landscapers/vehicle collisions/forest ecologists, they deserve a huge raise.

[leechlake]

Smell,

I get your point. My answer is for deer hunters. I know it can be more complicated than that but I'm advocating for me, the regular deer hunter just like the farmer would advocate for himself.

[Getanet]

If I were the DNR I'd be a bit concerned about hunter retention, not just hunter recruitment.

I would imagine they are to some extent. I would be interested to know what the normal attrition rate is. There has to be a certain percentage of guys who just lose interest, don't have the time, don't have the money, lost access to the only hunting grounds they're familiar with, etc.

[SmellEsox]

Smell,

I get your point. My answer is for deer hunters. I know it can be more complicated than that but I'm advocating for me, the regular deer hunter just like the farmer would advocate for himself.

Man do I ever wish they'd listen more to those of us that pay their salary! I hear you loud and clear.

[SmellEsox]

And Leech, I don't know why they wouldn't take pride in truly creating a world class herd and hunt. The potential is astronomical.

[smsmith]

And Leech, I don't know why they wouldn't take pride in truly creating a world class herd and hunt. The potential is astronomical.

That just boggles my mind. We're never going to compete with IA for numbers of mature bucks, or PA for sheer numbers of deer...but this state's deer herd certainly has a lot of untapped financial potential.

One big reason the deer herd in northern WI is going to be allowed to grow is that local Chambers of Commerce started applying some pressure...those folks depend on the influx of $$$ that comes along with decent deer hunting.

[leechlake]

other states/provinces have world class deer hunting. They also have farmers, cars on the road, most have some sort of timber industry you name whatever conflict to wanting less deer numbers.

I'm 47 years old and drive a bit under 20k miles a year and I have done that for 25 years or so. I hit a deer once, big deal. It was on the way up deer hunting ironically enough. I'm in the lumber business, deer eat baby trees, big deal. Deer along with other animals eat beans and corn, what can you do about it (limit the amount of deer around). I subsidize the farmer, because of that I chose to have some deer eat your crops, big deal.

I think us sportsman are terrible at lobbying our elected officials or at least we're not as good as other groups.

[Getanet]

I know two people who have died from hitting deer on the road.

[creepworm]

I'm 47 years old and drive a bit under 20k miles a year and I have done that for 25 years or so. I hit a deer once, big deal. It was on the way up deer hunting ironically enough. I'm in the lumber business, deer eat baby trees, big deal. Deer along with other animals eat beans and corn, what can you do about it (limit the amount of deer around). I subsidize the farmer, because of that I chose to have some deer eat your crops, big deal.

What is it you do for a living?

I take 10% of your salary, big deal right?

Or does that change when it is you that takes a hit.

[SmellEsox]

I know two people who have died from hitting deer on the road.

It's tragic when this happens, but far more people die in wrecks related to alcohol, cell phone use, etc. Should we eliminate beer and liquor and cell phones? I'm pretty sure on the list of possible ways to die, deer collisions are way down on the list.

[NWKR]

I only know one person that died hitting a deer and it was with a motorcycle, he also was not wearing a helmet. The area he was driving in was in NE MN and had and still has low deer populations.

I know many more who were friends or acquaintances who died in car accidents due to inattentive driving, reckless driving, no seatbelts, poor roads (probably inattentive or reckless in the conditions), and alcohol.

Some stats show that 200 people a year are killed in deer/car collisions nationwide. 30,000 are killed in all traffic accidents. Deer are the problem?

[NWKR]

What is it you do for a living?

I take 10% of your salary, big deal right?

Or does that change when it is you that takes a hit.

10% of salary? The 2011 SE MN landowner survey that showed $2.5m in damage to corn averaged out to $13 an acre. With $6 corn and a 179 bushel average (in SE per USDA), deer damage is 1.2% of gross. There are a lot bigger factors in growing crops that can impact the bottom line much more.

I do know that there are localized areas with much more damage, but does that mean that the DNR should say over population is an issue in a 500 sq mile area and issue more antlerless tags?

[Getanet]

I know two people who have died from hitting deer on the road.

[leechlake]

As I said I'm in the lumber business. If going into it I knew deer were going to eat 1.6% or 10% (whatever the number is) of my income every year I guess I'd have to make a choice to be in that business or not. If I chose to be in the business then I'd never let it cross my mind again since it was me that made that choice. My next door neighbor farms with his brother, never heard him ever complain about deer or any other animals eating his crops. Its a cost of doing business.

[smsmith]

I think us sportsman are terrible at lobbying our elected officials or at least we're not as good as other groups.

That is the issue in a nutshell

On the topic of farmers losing a percentage of their income to deer. Let's quantify those losses and find out where deer are legitimately causing significant damage and deal with that problem on a site by site basis. The model to do this already exists in SE MN...there's no reason we can't do the same thing in other areas of MN. I have no intention of purposely cutting into a farmer's income due to deer numbers that are too high...however, as a cynic...I'd like the evidence documented and quantified.

At the same time, is it fair for farmers and foresters to impact local businesses who cater to deer hunters? Is it fair that many places around the state who used to process venison no longer are in business because the deer kill has been cut more than half? Is it fair that archery businesses' sales are down? Is it fair to all the local bar/grills, restaurants, hotels, sporting goods stores, grocery stores and other small businesses who have lost money due to the poor quality of deer hunting in the state?

Farmers and foresters losses are more important than everyone elses'? Is that how it works?