Audit Push: Time To Act!

[smsmith]

...........hypocrisy lives

[Jameson]

What happens in Silly town, should stay in Silly town. Please don't bring the rest of the forums down to that level.

[smsmith]

removed

[Farmsfulltime]

As everything discussed its all opinion on behalf of the poster ,some have expressed theirs and they are welcome the same as I have opinion also, there has been a lot expressed here that has nothing to do with audit. I would guess everyone of us has our own agenda to match our opinions

[laker1]

Actually I am surprised it has stayed very civil for the most part. That is a pat on the back for all for doing so.

[Jameson]

As everything discussed its all opinion on behalf of the poster ...

No it is not. Some sure, everything no way. Take the total number of reported deer/vehicle crashes in 2002 and compare it to the reported deer/vehicle crashes 2013 and come up with a percent decline and that is a factual number. It would be our opinions if that factual number has any relevance, but the number is fact.

These are good discussions when both sides have facts to support their opinions.

[creepworm]

No it is not. Some sure, everything no way. Take the total number of reported deer/vehicle crashes in 2002 and compare it to the reported deer/vehicle crashes 2013 and come up with a percent decline and that is a factual number. It would be our opinions if that factual number has any relevance, but the number is fact.

These are good discussions when both sides have facts to support their opinions.

Alright, seeing we need to know the exact acres of corn left standing in the state, we might as well look at everything that could have an effect on car deer collisions.

How many miles did each Minnesotan drive in 2003 compared to 2013? How many people report deer car collisions, not just to their insurance, in 2003 compared to 2013. 2013 was a late harvest, how many acres of corn stood for how many days compared to 2003. According to everyone I talked to, 2013 had a very weak rut. How does the rut in 2003 compare to 2013? Duration? Intensity? The spring of 2013 and after November 2013 were very cold and snowy. Deer were yarded up and in wintering areas for more of 2013 than average. How does this compare to 2003?

Without data, its all just talk. Worthless rumors

Bring the data.

[Farmsfulltime]

( Factual ) numbers can be brought forth and used to turn or slant any discussion isn't that what has the DNR has been charged with . Back to open opinion not hidden but out in the open let the DNR adjust the season to reflect an adjustment of the population a year or two maybe three in some areas , some good weather and there will be deer aplenty and with all game populations the numbers will vary across the habitat. Heck we might even experience some extra car kills .

[SmellEsox]

( Factual ) numbers can be brought forth and used to turn or slant any discussion isn't that what has the DNR has been charged with . Back to open opinion not hidden but out in the open let the DNR adjust the season to reflect an adjustment of the population a year or two maybe three in some areas , some good weather and there will be deer aplenty and with all game populations the numbers will vary across the habitat. Heck we might even experience some extra car kills .

The problem is without MDDI, (eventually) MDHA, and the listening sessions and the Commissioner's request, we would still have liberal limits across central MN. Wildlife's model says there are still piles of deer. Enough to even have an early antlerless season in some areas. Their model is not working, but they still put all their money on it.

[laker1]

I wonder what percentage of deer killed by vechiles is reported to insurance? I hit two deer in my life,the same year it happened in.

Killed both deer,almost zero damage to the pickup. Reported them to the Sheriff department so I could keep the deer. No report on my behalf to the insurance company.

Car killed deer could still be a index tho because a certain percent each year would be reported.

So many tools and it takes more than one.

[smsmith]

I wonder what percentage of deer killed by vechiles is reported to insurance? I hit two deer in my life,the same year it happened in.

Killed both deer,almost zero damage to the pickup. Reported them to the Sheriff department so I could keep the deer. No report on my behalf to the insurance company.

Car killed deer could still be a index tho because a certain percent each year would be reported.

So many tools and it takes more than one.

Exactly. Why not use every tool that's available?

[DaveT]

I wonder what percentage of deer killed by vechiles is reported to insurance? I hit two deer in my life,the same year it happened in.

Killed both deer,almost zero damage to the pickup. Reported them to the Sheriff department so I could keep the deer. No report on my behalf to the insurance company.

Car killed deer could still be a index tho because a certain percent each year would be reported.

So many tools and it takes more than one.

I highly doubt the percentage of people who report/don't report has changed much. The same percentage of the population is not reporting for the same reasons now as 10 years ago. No full coverage, minor damage, no insurance, no license, warrant, etc.

As far as miles driven, I would assume there are considerably more miles driven now than 10 years ago. That should result in more car/deer accidents if the deer population is constant.

[Jameson]

...Without data, its all just talk. Worthless rumors

Bring the data.

I hope someone that has them at their fingertips will. I'm going hunting.

[hockeybc69]

MN DPS deer car collisions are down around 50% over the last 10 years....

Gee, overall harvest is down around 40%.

Any correlation in those 2 numbers at all?

But our DNR says year after year after year.... we are going into the fall with about a million deer.

Deer must be getting very smart as to avoid hunters and cars I guess. Maybe the data is just a bunch of hooey....

[PurpleFloyd]

I wonder what percentage of deer killed by vechiles is reported to insurance? I hit two deer in my life,the same year it happened in.

Killed both deer,almost zero damage to the pickup. Reported them to the Sheriff department so I could keep the deer. No report on my behalf to the insurance company.

Car killed deer could still be a index tho because a certain percent each year would be reported.

So many tools and it takes more than one.

[PurpleFloyd]

http://www.deercrash.org/states/minnesota.htm

This link goes to 2008 and shows crashes were cut by nearly 2/3 from 1994-2008 even though the deer population increased substantially during that time. That pretty much puts a nail in the coffin of the theory that you can correlate crashes and population directly .

[PurpleFloyd]

MN DPS deer car collisions are down around 50% over the last 10 years....

Gee, overall harvest is down around 40%.

Any correlation in those 2 numbers at all?

But our DNR says year after year after year.... we are going into the fall with about a million deer.

Deer must be getting very smart as to avoid hunters and cars I guess. Maybe the data is just a bunch of hooey....

http://www.deercrash.org/states/minnesota.htm

You are saying that deer crashes can't go down while the population goes up ?

[SmellEsox]

http://www.deercrash.org/states/minnesota.htm

This link goes to 2008 and shows crashes were cut by nearly 2/3 from 1994-2008 even though the deer population increased substantially during that time. That pretty much puts a nail in the coffin of the theory that you can correlate crashes and population directly .

That is assuming their population estimates are accurate.

[SmellEsox]

The harvest in 2003 was 290,525 and in 2008 was 221,837 despite there being 74,000 more licenses sold in 2008. So how could the population be estimated to be increasing through 2008 when the harvest declined 24% despite more licenses sold? That is why an audit of their model needs to be done. What kind of model estimates an increasing population when the harvest is steadily declining?

[smsmith]

What kind of model estimates an increasing population when the harvest is steadily declining?

The kind the MN DNR uses

[PurpleFloyd]

What kind of model shows deer crashes going down while road side carcass removal is over 2x that number? And that is the argument being used to support the claim that the DNR numbers are wrong.

[DaveT]

That is assuming their population estimates are accurate.

Exactly. I bet the estimate the DNR gave for each of those years was, wait for it...

[laker1]

Your model could show a high deer population,but than a hard winter-old mother nature can change that quickly.

[SmellEsox]

To be honest Purple, I think the carcass data actually matches the population better than the DNR estimate. I think they were hugely underestimating the population back in the 90s and way overestimating from the mid 2000's on. Hunting and deer sightings were far better in the 90's than the 2000s for me and many of the hunters I know.

[candiru]

The harvest in 2003 was 290,525 and in 2008 was 221,837 despite there being 74,000 more licenses sold in 2008. So how could the population be estimated to be increasing through 2008 when the harvest declined 24% despite more licenses sold? That is why an audit of their model needs to be done. What kind of model estimates an increasing population when the harvest is steadily declining?

In '03 the all-season license was available that allowed the taking of multiple deer. Grandma and aunt Betty didn't need to get a license. Now they are back to putting in for their doe permit every year.