Vikings VS Bears

[Dylan33]

All i know is whoever IS the next QB it better not be Rick Spielman making the call. ive been done with that guy since last season. Studwell and his scouting goons need to be held accountable too... Outside of Adrian Peterson and Harvin, two players that fell into their laps that ANYONE would have drafted, these guys have done NOTHING to improve the team besides possibly rudolph and Khalil, MAYBE Harrison Smith(who has disappeared since the cardinals game) and Blair Walsh who is a frickin kicker! Every move they make goes the wrong way, including coaching hires. This team cant afford to let Spielman and his minions screw up another off season and draft imo.

I love how you say he has done nothing to improve the team...then mention 6 players!!

[Dylan33]

Maybe the Vikings can pay the Bears $800,000 and get out of their next game?

IALTO!

[Dylan33]

Am I the only one who thought it was RIDICULOUS that we went for it on 4th and 2 when we down by 18 points? Frasier should be fired for that move alone. It's a 3 score game regardless...take your 3 points now...make it a 2 possession game and give yourself a chance.

Frasier needs to go before ponder IMO

[schmitty3]

Am I the only one who thought it was RIDICULOUS that we went for it on 4th and 2 when we down by 18 points? Frasier should be fired for that move alone. It's a 3 score game regardless...take your 3 points now...make it a 2 possession game and give yourself a chance.

Frasier needs to go before ponder IMO

I didn't mind that call. It's tough to pick up two touchdowns and a 2 point conversion in that short amount of time. The thing that I didn't get was why Peterson didn't get the ball on 3rd or 4th down. They hadn't stopped him once that whole drive, and then they get it down there only to roll Ponder out to his left 2 plays in a row with absolutely nothing to show for it. If you have the mind set that it's 4 down territory there is no reason Peterson doesn't get the ball on 3rd down.

[pikestabber]

I didn't mind that call. It's tough to pick up two touchdowns and a 2 point conversion in that short amount of time. The thing that I didn't get was why Peterson didn't get the ball on 3rd or 4th down. They hadn't stopped him once that whole drive, and then they get it down there only to roll Ponder out to his left 2 plays in a row with absolutely nothing to show for it. If you have the mind set that it's 4 down territory there is no reason Peterson doesn't get the ball on 3rd down.

+1. Maybe the smart plays was the FG, but I wasn't upset they went for it. I wouldn't even have been upset if they didn't get it if they at least RAN AP FOR ONE OF THOSE PLAYS! Here's a stat for ya... Musgrave is 60% to blame for 50% of our losses. I doubt any OC in the league would misuse AP so regularly and blatantly. Sad and pathetic.

[Dylan33]

Okay guys- we were down by 18 points, right? You have to know that we need 3 scores. EVEN IF you got the touchdown, you still need another touchdown with 2 pt conversion and field goal. If you don't score, the game is OVER.

Granted, it was a long shot, but you ALWAYS put points on the board and make it a 2 possession game.

[YiGGiN4SLoBS]

6 players over the course of the time hes been here with ALL the draft picks hes made and ALL of the free agent signings is a pretty small number in my book... that was the point. Didnt think i needed to explain further. I would like to think you or I or anyone on this site for that matter could come up with six players if we were in charge in all that time just drawing names out of a hat or throwing darts at a board...

I love how you love how i worded it though dylan33

[Dylan33]

6 players over the course of the time hes been here with ALL the draft picks hes made and ALL of the free agent signings is a pretty small number in my book... that was the point. Didnt think i needed to explain further. I would like to think you or I or anyone on this site for that matter could come up with six players if we were in charge in all that time just drawing names out of a hat or throwing darts at a board...

I love how you love how i worded it though dylan33

I'm not defending Spielman...I just thought it was funny that you said he has brought in NO ONE...then named 6 people. It's okay. Calm down.

[Slabasaurus]

I was not really 'upset' by going for it in that situation. That said. I WAS upset because the bears were winning, and again making Cutler look like he has talent.

That said... I was CONFUSED why they didn't kick the FG, since they needed one of those anyways.

But hey.

[YiGGiN4SLoBS]

Thought i was calm... Guess i did use CAPS for a couple words

[aanderud]

Am I the only one who thought it was RIDICULOUS that we went for it on 4th and 2 when we down by 18 points? Frasier should be fired for that move alone. It's a 3 score game regardless...take your 3 points now...make it a 2 possession game and give yourself a chance.

[Big Dave2]

aanderud, I get what you are saying and I agree with it but I bet that 8 out of 10 NFL coaches kick the FG there.

If you kick the FG you are at least still in it but if you get no points there like they did, you are finished.

[schmitty3]

Regardless of what they did or didn't do they didn't make the plays. Even if they would have kicked the fg that defense wasn't stopping Cutler and Marshall.

Still believe if you need 2 touchdowns plus a 2 pt conversion plus a fg and you have the ball inside the 10 you gotta get a touchdown. Then you throw in the factor you have AP who wasn't being stopped the whole drive I would disagree 8 out of 10 coaches kick the fg.

[aanderud]

aanderud, I get what you are saying and I agree with it but I bet that 8 out of 10 NFL coaches kick the FG there.

If you kick the FG you are at least still in it but if you get no points there like they did, you are finished.

You're right, 8 out of 10 coaches probably would have taken the field goal, but that's because most coaches don't understand probabilities as well as they understand points.

Doesn't matter if they're 'finished' now or later. Fact is, they would be 'finished' if at any time in the next 3 drives they fail to produce two touchdowns (one with a 2 point conversion). They have MUCH better odds of making a TD now then they do in the next 2 drives, so if you want your best chance to WIN (and not just your best chance to make the score look more competitive), you go for the TD here. To me, you can't ignore probabilities altogether. At some point they come into play, you're making a smarter football decision. If you go on points alone you're just making an emotional decision.

Figure the 'expected value' of points based on each outcome point total and that outcome's probability. After running all the scenarios, take the scenario with the highest 'expected value', and that's your best shot to win. In pairing the two (points and probabilities), it's not necessarily going to result in the exact same decisions as if you went with just points.

Everyone might have slightly different rationale or put different 'odds' (probabililties) on the situations, but saying flat out that you "ALWAYS take the points" (which Dylan33 was saying) is not the best answer. They give you a choice on 4th down for a reason -- because points isn't "always" better.

Again, if they're on the 15, 20, 25, or 35 yard line...or if it's 4th and 4 (rather than 4th and 2)....or if they didn't have the league leading rusher who averaged 5.8 yards per carry coming into the game...or a whole host of other things, I might have gone for the field goal. But in my mind, THIS situation was their best chance to win the TD.

Schmitty hit it on the head. You gotta try to get the TD when you can, and all factors being what they were, this seemed to be one of those "when you can" instances. If you can't from here, then what makes you think you can on 2 consecutive fresh drives later?

[Dylan33]

Okay, then by that logic, our "odds" of scoring 3 times was very low anyway, so why not just take a knee?

[snoozebutton]

"Settling" for a field goal there would've been a momentum boost for the Bears, not the Vikings so I can see why they went for the TD. Momentum is a huge thing for any team.

[aanderud]

Okay, then by that logic, our "odds" of scoring 3 times was very low anyway, so why not just take a knee?

Whoah, you obviously missed the point. You just gave a 100% probability of losing. I said I wanted to MAXIMIZE the odds of winning. Of coruse the odds will be low that they'll win in any scenario, because they need 3 scores and they have to hold the other team to 0 scores and the clock is ticking, and it's an away game, etc....

I'm just saying probabilities of the events should be considered, not just "take the points". Here's a simple example, I'll pretend we only need to score twice to keep the example shorter. And don't pay so much attention to the exact odds given as the context -- since I'm not arguing that I know the odds, I'm only arguing that the odds should come into play.

Say we need 10 points - 2 scores.

Let's assume we're at the 6 yard line.

Approach 1 -- take the field goal first:

Chance of scoring a field goal from the 6: 90%

Chance of scoring a TD on next possession: 10%

Odds that you complete both tasks (and win): .9 * .1 = 9%

1 in 11 times you win this game, 10 out of 11 games, you lose.

(That's probably fairly reasonable odds of a team that's down by 10 coming back to tie it up in their last 2 possessions with clock winding down.)

Now, let's consider the alternative scenario where you go for the TD first:

Chance of scoring a TD from the 6: 25%

Chance of scoring a field goal on next possession: 40%

Odds that you complete both tasks and win: .25 * .40 = 10%

1 in 10 games you win this game, 9 out of 10 you lose.

Since 10% is better than 9%, this scenario says to get the TD first. Of course these are contrived probabilities for the sake of the example.

Now pretend you're not on the 6, but instead you're on the 15. The probability of scoring the TD goes way down but the probability of getting a field goal stays relatively high. Whamo, now it makes more sense to take a field goal first.

My point is not to argue the exact probabilities I chose, but to illustrate that the probabilities MUST be taken into consideration if one wants to make the best decision. The simple approach of "always take the points" will be a worse decision at times. I would hope that SOMEONE on the team figures these probabilities out and uses those when making the decision, rather than the simpleton approach.

They can hire some math guy who is a stats geek and make it his job to say "the math says to do this, coach". And then the coach can mix that up with his gut feeling, the momentum factor that was mentioned above, the crowd noise, the weather, and whatever else, and out pops an answer.

[Dylan33]

I was being a bit sarcastic with my last post...there are obviously different schools of thought on this, and that is okay. One thing we ALL can agree on is that since they did go for it...AP should have gotten the ball on third down...(and if he didn't make that, he should get the ball again on 4th.)

[aanderud]

I was being a bit sarcastic with my last post...there are obviously different schools of thought on this, and that is okay. One thing we ALL can agree on is that since they did go for it...AP should have gotten the ball on third down...(and if he didn't make that, he should get the ball again on 4th.)

Yes, he should have had the ball on both of those downs. After those plays were called, I shut the game off and went to tinker in the garage

[Big Dave2]

You're right, 8 out of 10 coaches probably would have taken the field goal, but that's because most coaches don't understand probabilities as well as they understand points.

Oh I see. You are smarter than 8 out of 10 NFL coaches. That's great.

[Musky Buck]

Good Night Vikes, even AP didn't want to ride the team bus with the rest, was it I overslept lol or as a married man I had a few lady friends in the hotel or he ate my uncles 5 alarm chili ? We have 0 life on O without Percy. Here's the kicker, how would we be or record wise if Peyton Manning is pulling the trigger ? Ponder looks like a poor mans Joe Flacco, good night vikes.

[cheddar 86]

Good Night Vikes, even AP didn't want to ride the team bus with the rest, was it I overslept lol or as a married man I had a few lady friends in the hotel or he ate my uncles 5 alarm chili ? We have 0 life on O without Percy. Here's the kicker, how would we be or record wise if Peyton Manning is pulling the trigger ? Ponder looks like a poor mans Joe Flacco, good night vikes.

Sad part is that the biggest story I see is how AP didn't ride the team bus. How can he ride the proverbial sled when he's pulling it? Talk about a waste of talent.

I can't wait to see another year of Vikes football pass by with the same QB and coach next year.

[aanderud]

Oh I see. You are smarter than 8 out of 10 NFL coaches. That's great.

I was being facetious, but I do believe there are a lot of folks (many NFL coaches included) who think along the lines of "ALWAYS put the points on the board" -- I've heard it mentioned many times before (sometimes by coaches and other times by analysts and other times by internet guys like me or sometone else). I believe that when one is inflexible (the word ALWAYS is pretty absolute), one might take a suboptimal path at times.

[JackPineGuy]

A.P still got over the 100 yard mark and he kinda had an off day. What a baller