give it to me straight....

[jay83196]

Ok, so what are my odds of getting drawn from area 51 for bear permit if ive been drawn last two years in a row, so this would be 3 in a row.

[mcgarth]

hopefully not as good as mine!!!!

[sticknstring]

Quote:

give it to me straight....

Not good.

You mean, not good like 1 out of 100?

I'd say more like 1 out of a million.

So, you're telling me there's a chance! Yeah!

[mrklean]

haha always a good day when you hear a dumb and dumber quote

[jay83196]

Sigh, hard to not go for a year or two but I can hope still a tiny chance to get drawn.

[Boar]

Well ya could take the money ya normally would spend with running sites, buying bait, if ya do, ect ect ect. an give johnny P. a call. often thought about doing that, but then i'd miss out on all the fun. runnign sites, buying bait, if i do that, ect ect ect.. Boar

[wh1stler]

Two years in a row means nothing. Your odds are exactly the same as anyone else in area 51 without a preference point.

[jay83196]

So basically you get one point or 0 going into drawing and the one pointers get first crack then after they all get drawn then the no prefrence points get it until all permits gone.

[wh1stler]

Exactly.

[bogwalker]

Except during leap year.

[lichen fox]

According to the 2010 harvest report on the DNR HSOforum...in area 51, about 50% of preference level 1 applicants were drawn...and all preference level two applicants were drawn...so, it basicly boils down to how many preference 2 applicants there are this year...if it stays the same as the past few years you got a 50-50 shot!

[jay83196]

How do I know how many points I have 0 or do you always have one and people not drawn the year before have 2? Or is it 0-2? Does It matter how many years in a row you get drawn 1 or 5 times you have same points. JUST TRYING TO UNDERSTAND PROCESS. THANKS.

[lichen fox]

From the way I understand it...you get one point for each time you correctly apply...So, a first time applicant automaticly gets one point...the same is true if you bought a license last year...you then go to zero, but you get one point for applying this year...So everyone has at least one point...those who applied and didn't buy a license last year have two...those who have applied in three different years and not bought a license have 3 points, etc....

If you are drawn and purchase a license you lose all accumulated preference when you purchase that license...if you don't purchase a license, your preference points stay with you.

It was interesting looking at the 2010 harvest report in that, as I mentioned before, Statewide, all applicants with 2 or more preference points were drawn for a permit...in area 51, 53% of applicants with one preference point was drawn.So in area 51 your chances are 50-50 for all level one applicants....in the area I hunt, area 12...only 23% of applicants with 1 preference point was drawn...so, if that percentage stays the same this year I only have about a 25% chance of getting drawn...but still one in four odds aren't that bad...The longest successful drawing streak I've had was 11 years...yes, I was drawn in area 12 for 11 years straight...It was fun while it lasted!! But, we'll see if I can get back on that role again come June!!

[x1957x]

Lichen fox, It is my understanding that if you get drawn and dont even have to buy one ( starting this year you will go back to zero ) even if you dont buy it. So if you get drawn and you dont buy it you lose all points. ( 57)

[lichen fox]

It's possible...I guess I'll have to check out the Permanent Rules page on the DNR HSOforum to see what changes they have made in the way the preference point system works...Thanks for the heads up!

[lichen fox]

57, here's an update from the DNR rulemaking pages...This is the way it is on the table for this year under expidited permanent rules...Comment period ended March 31st and it's on the calander to be adopted...(or not),just have to wait and see... but according to this, you only loose your preference when you "purchase" a license...so, it stays the same as it has been in the past.

6232.2900 BEAR PERMIT PROCEDURES.

6232.2900 7

01/21/11 REVISOR CKM/JC RD3999

[For 8.1 text of subp 1, see M.R.]

Subp. 2. Drawings. Drawings will be conducted by the department to determine those eligible to purchase a bear license within the bear quota areas.

A. An applicant must select a first choice of bear quota area and may select a second choice of bear quota area. Preference in the drawings will be given to applicants based upon:

(1) the number of times they have correctly applied for a license in a quota area in previous years but have not been selected; or

(2) the number of times they have correctly applied in the preference only area in previous years but have not been selected.

B. Upon issuance of a quota area license, all accumulated preference is lost. Obtaining a no-quota bear license has no effect upon eligibility or preference in the drawings.

[pulleye16]

I think I've made it 4 years straight in Area 51. I also apply by myself. In years I've party applied, it seemed like I had more "off" years then not.

[Black Bear]

You are not going to get fdrawn this year with no preference points in area 51------however you may be able to buy one after the people whom have drawn tags do not purchse theirs by the end of July.

[jerkbait]

You are not going to get fdrawn this year with no preference points in area 51------however you may be able to buy one after the people whom have drawn tags do not purchse theirs by the end of July.

That is what I am hoping for in area 12.

[jay83196]

How can you be so sure? I have heard others get drawn several years in row this area puts out a lot of permits (and probably gets more that apply too so that hurts). I know they give out less this year too but still mould think I have a shot.

[Boar]

Black bear, if Fox is correct in saying if you correctly apply, you automaticly get 1 point, just for applying. So my understanding of Fox is that you cant go into a drowning with 0. Its either 1 or more. You c an choose area 99 an not be in the drawing but recieve 1 point for next year.

So 1 point just for applying.

if you dont get drawin you have 1 point towards next years drawing.

so you apply this year with 1 point from last year an 1 point for applying , so now you have 2 points going into the drawing this year.

So if that is right. If a person choose area 99 hes not applying just ask in for a point. Cause maybe he cant hunt this year an wants to better the oods for next year in which case hed be going into a drawing with 2 points. So if a guys applys an has one point, but dosent get drawin, then selects area 99 nxt year, then he has 2 points, but still not hunting, now he gose into a drawing the 3rd yeear with 3 points. and so on an so on. My brain hurts.

[jay83196]

Lol sucks not knowing I hate collecting bait last minute or having it sit for a year or two. Should be drawn earlier in year, season should be later to so its not so hot too.

[jay83196]

well I did get drawn, 3 in a row...I guess its better to be lucky sometimes! good luck to the rest of you!