Market Outlook?

[cattailcrew]

Just curious to see what the outlook is looking like for raw: raccoon, fox, coyotes, mink, muskrat and beaver?

[SneakAttack]

I'll believe when I see it but a certain trapper friendly magazine said raccoon prices might be higher than normal

[Brownie77]

I don't worry about it. Ijust trap and get what I get. $5 or $50 I will be hitting coon and mink and rats hard till the day I die. I am getting sick of everyone worring about prices. I pray for $10 coon so the weekend warriors will stay home and get fatter so they will have more trouble next year.

[walleye101]

Brownie

Your prayers may be answered by the recent world wide economic slump. The last time this happened (1987)fur markets collapsed.

[walleyes12]

Talked to my fur buyer last night, and it doesn't sound good early

[J48jake]

walleye 101 I think you might be very correct. Rumor is that coon should do well this year, but we all know how the rumors go. Everyone will focus on coon and flood the market. Only time will tell.

[walleye101]

One of the main consumers of racoon is Russia and the countries of the old Soviet Union. The reason coon prices advanced like they have the last couple of years is that their economies were growing rather well. If you have listened at all to the news on world markets in the last couple of weeks they (thier economies) have taken a severe hit. That is bad news for coon markets this fall.

[leechmann]

I have to think that the whole fur market will be affected by the wall street greed collapse. With credit hard to come by and the fur market being speculative even on a good year, I bet the buyers will error on the side of caution, which will have them offering you less for your fur. So go out and trap and enjoy yourself.

[Brownie77]

With coon there are none to buy right now. The prices will be up until all the idiots who were picking up road kill in August start selling their [PoorWordUsage] and the market is flooded with crappy coon. But like leechman said it is about trappi9ng not bottom lines.

[walleyes12]

The market is already flooded, I was giving the advice to hold your fur till later in the year, let the market clean itself out

[Brownie77]

I thougth it was cleaned out. It was cleaned out last spring. Where do you sell fur?

[walleyes12]

they didn't have there September acution so they have hold overs starting the winter auctions.

[protrapper]

Bottom line sell your early stuff early.. The prices are inflated major.. I have talked to several MAJOR buyers and they are worried big time... All these trappers thinking high prices aint gonna happen boys... To make money trapping you need VOLUME AND NUMBERS.. Not high prices. I've seen this for 20 years..

[walleye101]

Bottom line sell your early stuff early.. The prices are inflated major.. I have talked to several MAJOR buyers and they are worried big time... All these trappers thinking high prices aint gonna happen boys... To make money trapping you need VOLUME AND NUMBERS.. Not high prices. I've seen this for 20 years..

If you mean sell unprime junk early I would agree (no point holding on the that). But if all the buyers are worried as you say there is nothing to gain by selling quality fur early. Their uncertainty only means they will need to hedge low since they are taking the risk. Selling early under these conditions will assure low prices. Hanging on til mid-winter may not be any better but at least it give the markets some time to stabalize. I don't mind getting $10 for a coon if that is it's true value on the market, but I don't want to get $10 because a local fur buyer was concerned about a possible crash that never came.

[protrapper]

I don't sell local.. I sell to different buyers all over the country and NAFA.. I trap several states a year.. I know when to sell and when to hold. I've been burned plenty of times.

[walleyes12]

I have been told the opposite, hold on to your good furs! Let the summer market [PoorWordUsage] clean out. Then sell you quality furs. I also sell all over the country (mostly ND, MN, NAFTA) I have been adviced by alll the MN,ND fur buyers to hold.

[trapperdirk]

I sell mine as the fur primes but we have numerous auctions . No sense of me hanging onto furs till the next sale 2 months down the road that are from an earlier time of year . The furs they then have to compete with for the top lots will not have the guard hair the later ones do . Buyers know this too .

Lookit the way they screw us on otters with all that singed B.S.

I could keep beaver.otter whatever over but one caught at end of october will not be a match for one caught mid december and putting them side by side will get the grade knocked down on the earlier one . So the earlier one if it's good will grade higher earlier in the year if that makes sense .

TD

[walleye101]

I don't sell local.. I sell to different buyers all over the country and NAFA.. I trap several states a year.. I know when to sell and when to hold. I've been burned plenty of times.

All independant buyers are local somewhere........

But if you ship to one of the major auction houses like NAFA, the competition assures you are getting true market value. Unfortunately that does not always mean the highest price. As we all know market value can change drastically monthly, weekly or even daily. But the auctions and competative bidding will give you true market value at the time of that particular auction.

[walleyes12]

Originally Posted By: protrapper

I don't sell local.. I sell to different buyers all over the country and NAFA.. I trap several states a year.. I know when to sell and when to hold. I've been burned plenty of times.

All independant buyers are local somewhere........

But if you ship to one of the major auction houses like NAFA, the competition assures you are getting true market value. Unfortunately that does not always mean the highest price. As we all know market value can change drastically monthly, weekly or even daily. But the auctions and competative bidding will give you true market value at the time of that particular auction.

Good Post!

[walleye101]

Originally Posted By: walleye101

Originally Posted By: protrapper

I don't sell local.. I sell to different buyers all over the country and NAFA.. I trap several states a year.. I know when to sell and when to hold. I've been burned plenty of times.

All independant buyers are local somewhere........

But if you ship to one of the major auction houses like NAFA, the competition assures you are getting true market value. Unfortunately that does not always mean the highest price. As we all know market value can change drastically monthly, weekly or even daily. But the auctions and competative bidding will give you true market value at the time of that particular auction.

Good Post!

Thanks, I've sold a couple of furs in may day to.

[walleye101]

Lookit the way they screw us on otters with all that singed B.S. TD

If you think you are being screwed on your otters sell them to someone else. If you can't find anyone else who will pay more then you are getting paid the fair market value. If they were worth more (demand) the market would dictate that price.

[Trany]

Originally Posted By: trapperdirk

Lookit the way they screw us on otters with all that singed B.S. TD

If you think you are being screwed on your otters sell them to someone else. If you can't find anyone else who will pay more then you are getting paid the fair market value. If they were worth more (demand) the market would dictate that price.

Not to get too long winded here, I am an accountant and relatively knowledgeable about financial markets and economic principles, I will share a brief analysis of the fur market. And simplify it to make since to the lay person.

The market will dictate the price and will eventually correct itself if it is out of balance. In finance the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are "informationally efficient", or that prices on traded assets, e.g., stocks, bonds, or property, already reflect all known information. The efficient-market hypothesis states that it is impossible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck.

Now let’s accept that the fur market only grows at the same rate, it will be almost impossible to out perform the market. There are exceptions to the “rules” where a pristine or oddity in the fur and its quality will dictate an abnormally high price (the $200 beaver, when beaver is between 35-45). Now if we assume that the demand is steady and that all the furs sent to market will sell then we can expect prices to grow. This is a simple supply and demand relationship. Now if the market only sells 80% or something other then all of the fur then you would expect the price to stay the same or drop to support the demand (or lack of).

If you hold prime furs until the market supports favorable prices then you will get the best value for your furs. There are also the poor quality furs that are less then the average market quality and you would be lucky to make any profit on these. If we assume a uniform distribution of the quality of furs on a standard bell curve, we will know that roughly 68% of the fur will be one grade above and below the average this should be about the low end of the price spread. Then the next 28% will be two grades above or below the average this should represent the high end of the price. There are the outliers with the final 4% that are either extremely high quality and demanding high prices, or very low quality that will command little value on the market.

The best method is to hold prime furs, for favorable conditions, and to move the average and low quality furs as soon as you can. As with any other market there are speculators who risk a lot on the market in hopes of it rising rapidly, these people will buy furs at price of $30 and hope it raises and sell them at a profit. This works on a theory of economies of scale where large volumes with fractions of profit generate returns over cost. The speculators should cause the market to rise, and if the market is full of average and lower quality furs, then this should drive the prices up of the high end and prime furs to maximize market prices.

[protrapper]

Thats a good post. Problem is the markets change daily.. I know of one major buyer a friend who has 20,000 coon sitting in China right now he hasn't been paid for yet.. And at a fair price..

[Trany]

Sorry to even more long winded.

I know the market is variable. As a trapper you are the first person in line, you make the most from a single transaction, your only offset is your time, equipment, fuel and what you "miss out on". If you trap, skin, and prepare all of your own furs you maximize the profit. The buyers make there money by buying large amounts and selling large amounts for small profit on each fur. Then the furs, are made into what ever and sold, for a profit again, but there is another input of labor and materials. Given my post above, we have to make a few assumptions with this scenario, the first is that the market is dynamic, and changing constantly. The second is that we have a uniform distribution with the quality of the furs.

Now if we realize that we have sub par furs, we should move these as fast as we can and make minimal profit, we cant have perfect pelts all the time. If you do your own work, you need to conform to the standards they buyers have for the furs. In particular sizes, if everyone follows the same standards then we can get a uniform price or price range for a given grade on a fur. By "unloading" the lower quality furs at whatever price you can get for them should in turn create a higher demand for the high quality furs. Thus we artificially inflate the market for the premium and everyone profits with higher prices. The only variable i see with this that is the wild card is the strength of the us dollar on an international scale. If the USD is devalued then the purchasing power of the foreign currency is strengthened. This is an issue, being that most of the fur market is outside of the united states, going to Asia and Europe. If everyone commits to working together and setting a standard for how things are done, we not only create a uniform commodity, but also prosper from the actions of the fellow trapper.

I am not preaching "unionization" or anything along those lines, I am looking to create a market that is stable and that furs get their adequate value. I am pro capitalism and I think everyone should get the top dollar for their goods and services. The long term stability of a volatile market requires patience and conformity to "industry" standards. The adequate training and knowledge in these forums as a collective could benefit everyone fully. I am new to trapping, but simple economic principles and statistical analysis are applicable here. Everyone has a unique set of skills, mine is in the analysis of markets and economics. yours might be that you can skin a beaver or coon in 30 sec and have no sinew or flesh to remove (just a dream). I am not asking for trade secrets but to collect a reasonable list of tips and processes that everyone can benefit from.

[Trany]

I got a little bored at work and made some charts.

The first chart is a simple supply and demand relationship. Demand is constant, as price is high demand is low, as price gets low (to 0) demand is high. Supply is an exponentially growing curve, as demand is low supply is low, once demand grows so does the supply. The point where both lines intersect is the market equilibrium, this is where the price and demand are stable. Both factors supply and demand are steady here, this is where the market wants to be.

The second chart is what happens when you shorten supply, less supply means higher price for shortage, the supply shift left, this reflect fewer items (fur) on the market, causing the equilibrium to shift left as well. If the demand is constant and the supply is what can be changed then we can move low quality furs at higher prices. Thus allowing us to capitalize on the prime furs when we send them to market.

This is a count of furs sold from NAFA (March and May are complete and January is a partial list) and the average price, in relationship to Minnesota, These are in Canadian dollars and expressed in US dollars as of 10/23/2008. These are the prices that the fur buyers (the ones we sell to) receive for the furs.

This is a educated average and by no means the absolute truth! I am not a fur buyer and could not speculate on the prices, but I would assume 10-20% profit on the price of fur, so multiply the price by the average at .85 this should reflect a 15% markup. No this is for fully prepared furs that have been fleshed and stretched. I will assume that there is a drastic hit if you sell them in the green, somewhere in the 45-50% of the average price.

I would suggest to look at the data and look back at previous years data, and determine when to sell your furs. Some furs peek in price in the March auction, and others in May. My advise is to sell the "poor" furs as soon as you can and hold your prime for the end of the season.