2012-2013 Gophers

[alleyes]

Let's see how recruiting goes after another epic collapse, still looking for one player that's gotten better playing under Tubby here...

[Scott M]

Bubble Watch

by Eamonn Brennan, ESPN

CHICAGO -- It is the season for a lot of things -- the gross wet cross between winter and spring, taxes, calling in "sick" to watch college basketball -- but it's hard to type my favorite annual rite of March: widespread bubble misunderstanding.

It never fails. We spend six weeks trying to understand this stuff, to cull some reasonable order from the chaos that is the NCAA tournament selection process, and as soon as conference tournament weekend starts, all of a sudden it's like our predictable, staid rules no longer apply. All bets are off.

Which brings us, of course, to Minnesota.

After the Golden Gophers' buzzer-beating loss to Illinois in the first round of the Big Ten tournament Thursday afternoon -- a game they began with an utterly horrific first half -- one didn't have to search hard for analysts suddenly proclaiming Minnesota was done. You may have heard this or read it. Even at the Big Ten tournament, the media room was abuzz with bubble intrigue: Were the Gophers out? They were 8-10 in Big Ten, 5-7 in their last 12 and 5-10 since a 15-1 start vaulted them inside the top 10. Hadn't this team misspent its chance?

No! Look: The Gophers are no one's idea of a fearsome team. They turn the ball over far too much. They don't defend particularly well. Even the most ardent Minnesota fan (heck, even Tubby Smith) would admit this group has squandered its talent and experience and a totally promising start to the season with six weeks of mediocrity, and there are no easy answers for why.

But despite all that, the Gophers are still likely to get in the NCAA tournament because they're still OK based on the metrics that really matter. They played the second-ranked schedule in the country and the 12th-ranked nonconference slate. They have a top-25 RPI, which is historically a near-guarantee of NCAA tournament selection. They have some variously impressive wins on their ledger (Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Memphis and at Illinois).

Those formal criteria more often correlate to tournament selection, and the criteria you often hear bandied about are typically outdated emphases. So, no, conference record isn't a deciding factor. Neither is recency. The final 12 games don't matter more than the first 12, and no, there are no bonus points awarded (or subtracted) for conference tournament wins. Advanced efficiency numbers -- including ESPN's own BPI -- might be considered in the committee room, but they are far less important than the NCAA's own RPI, which underpins the entire organization of its infamous nitty-gritty team sheets.

Because it always eventually becomes a subjective exercise, the NCAA's selection criteria can be hard to pin down. This is the root cause of the confusion. But the confusion is also self-imposed: Our brains are wired to suffer from the recency effect, and besides that, we want single-elimination March games to mean more than just 1/30th of a season. We want clear, black and white implications. We crave narrative. Win and you're in. Lose and you're out.

It is rarely this simple, and so the misinformation spreads.

[Scott M]

Listed as a Giant Killer at ESPN...based on how flukey they are, I can understand why when you look at their metrics...

2. Minnesota Golden Gophers

Giant Killer Rating: 58.9

Secret Sauce: 5.73

Key Metric: 44.3 offensive rebounding percentage (No. 1 in the nation)

Who can make sense out of the Gophers? Well, maybe our model. You know about their 15-1 start to the season and their 5-11 finish, including yesterday's dreadful loss to Illinois in the Big Ten tournament. Lunardi still has them in his bracket, but they've slid into GK position. And that might be just the right fit.

Minnesota has wins over Indiana, Michigan State and Wisconsin this season, so the Gophers have shown that they can challenge anyone, despite their horrendous stretch run. So allow us to consider the following theory: Maybe they've been miscast all season as a top power-conference team. Maybe they're just a prime Giant Killer. Their rating speaks to that idea. In addition to their prolific offensive rebounding, the Gophers also rank 34th in the country in steal percentage. Those categories make up the bulk of a GK's secret sauce, so Minnesota carries a strong resemblance to teams that have pulled off prior upsets. Plus, they rank 30th in the BPI. So Minnesota isn't just a good Killer. It is a good team, despite the way it finished the season.

[Scott M]

Tubby is (was?) a decent name coming into a kids home to make a pitch. But if you were watching through the years and saw 8-9 guys getting 20 minutes apiece, line change substitutions, players playing out of position, terrible X's and O's, stale and unimaginative offense, complete lack of player development, quick exits for mistakes, and being in the middle of the conference at best, I can't see Tubby being this big recruitment name anymore. I know I wouldn't sign up for that, but that's just me. Like slab says, it's probably a perception thing that works in his favor, but I still give HS kids more credit than that. They ask around and pay attention to some of those things.

Did he sign some highly touted recruits? Yes.

'08

Sampson - King Charmin, best guard in the 7' and over league

Iverson - transferred

Joseph - transferred

Paul Carter - Juco

Devon Bostick - Juco

'09

Cobbs - transferred

Mbakwe - Juco

Williams - Too bad the NBA instituted their 1 year rule, he'll never make a million dollars in one year now. And 1 traveling tour? He's got some awesome hops and dunks.

White - transferred

'10

Armelin - transferred

Ahanmisi

Au Hollins

Walker

Eliason

Osenieks

'11

Coleman

Dre Hollins

Welch - Juco

Ingram - Juco

'12

Ellenson

Buggs

I see some big names and high recruits in there, but all either left or never got a hair better. He's signed some decent kids and got them here, but that's only part of the puzzle of being HC. I have a feeling his recruiting is about to get a lot worse when the kids look at the last 4 seasons, better than half his tenure here (2009-2010 Devoe Joseph mid-season transfer, mediocrity ensues, 2010-2011 Nolen goes down and the wheels come off, 2011-2012 Mbakwe goes down and the team can't win a B1G game to save their life, 2012-2013 Conference road games unwinnable) and look at player development and number of his Minnesota players in the NBA.

[Slabasaurus]

I see some big names and high recruits in there, but all either left or never got a hair better. He's signed some decent kids and got them here, but that's only part of the puzzle of being HC. I have a feeling his recruiting is about to get a lot worse when the kids look at the last 4 seasons, better than half his tenure here (2009-2010 Devoe Joseph mid-season transfer, mediocrity ensues, 2010-2011 Nolen goes down and the wheels come off, 2011-2012 Mbakwe goes down and the team can't win a B1G game to save their life, 2012-2013 Conference road games unwinnable) and look at player development and number of his Minnesota players in the NBA.

Yep. I mean I can't disagree with this much but I still feel its too early to cut tubby...

maybe it's just me being annoyed with how quick MN folk tend to be to scream FIRE (insert coaches name here). That and the word epic... though that isn't isolated to MN.

[alleyes]

You're right, predictable would have been better than epic, for that I am sorry.

[Slabasaurus]

You're right, predictable would have been better than epic, for that I am sorry.

If you live in this state you should not be surprised by this kind of collapse Predictable actually is the better word there.

Although it appeared I was referring to your use of the word "epic" I wasn't... I can see how it looked that way though. I had just read a news site where the word "epic" appeared in most of their headlines... seemed a bit excessive.

[Scott M]

The last couple Lunardi mocks have the Gophers playing Colorado State in a 8-9 matchup. That would be a heck of a matchup seeing Colt 45 again...I'd have to take CSU and I think Colt would have a huge game. Good call taking Sampson over Colt Tubby. But he wouldn't be eligible this year anyway so I guess its a moot point.

[DTro]

To: Mike Bobinski

Chairman

NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Selection Committee

Dear Mike:

I would like to apologize for the familiarity, Mike, but I wanted to make this a personal plea in behalf of all Minnesotans who believe in fair play when it comes to athletic competition.

The Star Tribune reported several remarks from your conference call Wednesday on the selection criteria that your committee will be using this week to determine the 68-team field for this year’s tournament.

We here at the Strib couldn’t help but read between the lines of some of your comments and reach the conclusion that our University of Minnesota student athletes will be announced as part of that field come Sunday evening.

We’ve had a lot of humiliations thrown at us here in Minnesota. We had our hero Harry Peter Grant lose those four Super Bowls. We had a presidential candidate lose to Richard Nixon and another collect 13 electoral votes. On Jan. 8, 1999, we watched with mouths agape as Jesse Ventura took the oath as our governor.

I’m down on bended knee here, Mike: Come Sunday, don’t reward this collection of dedicated underachievers and their hapless coach with one of the precious 37 at-large bids.

To assist you in reaching that right-minded decision, I’ve taken the liberty of refuting the thoughts you expressed that seemed to favor our rodents.

• On good wins vs. bad losses, your response included: “This is just me as a single committee member. ... I would tell you that the ability to beat good teams is really, probably a clear indication of your deservedness. ... I think that to me weighs a little bit heavier than the loss side of it.”

Obviously, we respect your opinion — you’re a chairman, after all — but you’re dead wrong when it comes to our Gophers. The bad losses by our student athletes far outweigh the wins.

You got Memphis down as a good win, I presume? That game was played in November in the Bahamas. That was a lifetime ago, and in no way reflects on the Gophers witnessed in a majority of the 14 games starting Jan. 23.

You’re also giving credit for the 76-63 victory over Michigan State in the Big Ten opener, right?

There’s also this view: Tubby Smith’s Gophers making such a descent as Tom Izzo’s Spartans have made such a rise should give demerits for what happened on Dec. 31 to the Gophers, not honor points.

For every good win, Mike, I can trump it (and then some) with bad losses: at Northwestern, at Wisconsin (45-44), at home vs. Illinois, at Iowa (72-51), at Ohio State (71-45), at Nebraska, at Purdue and, finally, on Thursday, 51-49 to an Illini bunch that had one player go 10-for-16 from the field and the rest of the klutzes go 8-for-40.

• There was a question about the teams passing the “eye test” or losing by a big margin in games. This was the interesting aspect of your response:

“I don’t know that any particular loss ... would really significantly damage or advantage any team’s position in the field. ... One game is ultimately one game and we need to keep it in perspective.”

Agreed, Mike. That’s why I gave you a list of eight humiliations for the Gophers over the past 51 days. As for the “eye test,” there are reports that seven Minnesotans suffered temporary blindness watching the telecast of the Gophers’ 53-51 loss at Nebraska.

• You also refuted the long-held notion that importance is placed on a team’s past 10 games:

“We took it out [of the selection criteria] because folks in the media and elsewhere were really fixating on that as an overly weighted determinant ...”

OK, Mike, but can I interest you in the past 14 games as criteria?

If you want to keep perspective over one game, the abomination for the Gophers was the upset of Indiana. There were nine games — yup, nine of 14 — where Tubby’s bricklayers scored 53 points or fewer in regulation.

And I haven’t even mentioned the turnovers.

Mike, we’re begging here.

Show the nation your committee has standards.

Don’t call our name Sunday. We’re busy. We have another failed coach to pay off.

[DrJuice1980]

What a waste of ink and paper. What an egomaniac. He would rather see our squad not get a chance. I don't care how disappointed fans are, it's about the players. If they get the invite and you are mad they're in then you have major problems and are one of those people that get off on pessimism, you're a pathetic so called "fan." I want to see them play.

[Bryce]

I want to see them play.

I have no problem with that. Just want to see that with an interim coach. Bet I can get a plus 1 on that.

[YiGGiN4SLoBS]

What a waste of ink and paper. What an egomaniac. He would rather see our squad not get a chance. I don't care how disappointed fans are, it's about the players. If they get the invite and you are mad they're in then you have major problems and are one of those people that get off on pessimism, you're a pathetic so called "fan." I want to see them play.

I hear ya juice. I just dont believe the 9th place team in ANY conference deserves to be in. Even if its the team i follow. Their gonna get in but i dont like it.

[DrJuice1980]

So you're a fan but you don't want them in the tourney? I don't get that. Would you rather see a tiny school that won 13 games all season but managed to get lucky and win their crappy conference tourney get in? Or how about some A10 3rd place team who's won more games than the Gophs but on a WAY easier schedule? Another thing I don't get is how he can say a 1 point loss at Wisconsin is bad. Some ugly loses but yeah this is the Big10 not the Mount West, A10, Conf. USA, heck even throw the Pac 12. These are tough games night in and night out. Penn State beat Michigan for crying out loud. Yeah they upset me at times but I never wanted them to lose.

Shame on those who call themselves "fans" but don't want to watch your team. Thick and thin, if you're not that then you're just a fake bandwagon loser. Unless your squad was a bunch of theifs, rapists, and murders you should always cheer for them. Go to H E double hockey sticks Reusse. You're a pathetic piece of trash starving for attention, egomaniac thinks he is our voice. Your radio show is as bad as your so called "sports" column. You work for a newspaper that costs me pennies for a Sunday edition. You are a no talent (insert word you all know) clown. Take it easy on the Karkov and maybe you'll be able to open your eyes more than a squint.

"Let's go Gophers". I'll be watching and cheering for you even if its the CIT!

[alleyes]

I'm hoping they get in as well, just not holding my breath. If they don't get in, I'd completely understand, and would hope they would decline another NIT invite.

[timjones]

What is really sad about this is Tubby gets a $100,000 dollar bonus it they get in.

[Scott M]

California Los Angeles versus your Golden Gophers on Friday, 6 vs. 11 seeds in the South region, game to be played in Austin.

They could spring an upset if they can control turnovers but if you can't do it in 32 games why would it start now? Even if they can advance, Florida is a pretty tough squad that should go fairly deep.

[YiGGiN4SLoBS]

Heres your chance Tubby. Get em to the sweet 16 and make up for that pathetic second half, and frankly a disappointing 6 years.

[Dotch]

An 11 seed. Lunardi had them picked as a 10 seed a several weeks back when their record was better and I thought that was too low. They had some games that should've been locks for the win column left to play at that time. My how times have changed. Part of Tubby's master plan to sand bag and make their attempt to get to the Sweet 16 easier? That would be giving him too much credit. They would've been left out of the Big Dance had they not beaten IN methinks. Yessir, with UCLA's big gun on the shelf after breaking his leg at the end of their last game, they probably stand a decent chance to win one if they play the way they're capable of. However, this is the same team that found ways to lose to teams like NE, IA, Purdue and Northwestern so I am not getting my hopes up. If they win great, I'm pleasantly surprised and if not, I have invested no emotional capital. If Tubby keeps his job and he probably will, he absolutely has to do something about the stench of the practically nonexistent offense. Another season worse than this one (and it has the potential to be) and he could be taking one of those rumored jobs if he doesn't get run out of town first. I don't hate the guy, I'm just frustrated with the way the program has gone the past 6 years. They played better when he was first here with Monson's players than with what he's recruited since they left. Disappointing.

[Scott M]

Well said Dotch, I thought the Gophers would be much better off within the past 6 years than what has developed. He got guys to play hard and scrappy back when he started and those are the kind of teams that anyone can get behind.

Gavin Schilling makes a decision on Wednesday, Gophers are a finalist and he sees that he'd have a great opportunity to get some big frontcourt minutes.

I wonder if Tubby won't shake up the assistant coaches to throw the dogs off. That is unless he makes a Sweet 16 run.

[Scott M]

The lines will start popping up later this week; but UCLA has trouble rebounding and its one thing the Gophers do well on offense (okay, Mbakwe does it). Anything can happen with this team, in the sense of they could blow the doors off UCLA or get blown out, but early on its a popular upset pick. I've seen too much bloodshed to get behind the Gophers in a pick em pool, but I'll still root for them to pull the upset and play for a trip to another city. One saving grace is its a neutral court site. Between home and neutral, they aren't too bad. It's on the road when the demons really show up.

[YiGGiN4SLoBS]

. One saving grace is its a neutral court site. Between home and neutral, they aren't too bad. It's on the road when the demons really show up.

I think this is spot on. This is the one chance the gophers have. They are decent at home and neutral sites. I just hope they dont embarrass themselves like they have most of the second half of the season. They are lucky to be in the dance with a 9TH PLACE finish in the big ten.

[Scott M]

The Wynn has Gophers as 2 point favorites, Bovada as 3. O/U 135

[B. Amish]

they'll show some flash in this tournament before they get beat. they'll either be up big on somebody before they blow it or win two games, then get blown out in the sweet 16.

[Bryce]

What is really sad about this is Tubby gets a $100,000 dollar bonus it they get in.

Now I hear another $150,000 for a first round win. Haven't heard anything for further wins. Don't think anyone is looking that far ahead. Interim coach sounding better all the time.

[blue_healer_guy]

Besides the world series this is my favorite title to watch. Just dropped to last after inviting the gophers. What a joke, win or not.