Timberwolves 2011-2012

[YiGGiN4SLoBS]

Charlotte might be THE worst NBA team I have ever seen in my entire life.... And being a wolves fan, ive seen some bad ones... That team will be lucky to win 1 more road game all season. Good to win it but if you lose that game you might as well call up everyone from the D-league and give em a shot

[schmitty3]

15 out of the next 17 against teams over .500. Hopefully they can keep it together during this stretch and stay within shooting distance of a playoff spot.

[fishersofmen]

Its a good thing Pek took his game to another level or this team would be terrible right now. It seems no one else is willing to make the same move or are just not capable.

[Scott K]

Just think if they ran this offense through Pek? The sad part is, if we would have had Pek last year playing like he is this year, we would have been pretty good. Being we ran most of the offense through Darko/center. The Wolves need to get that 3rd player in here. I dont see him on our team now. I also liked how they played last night with JJ in the game, the offense just kinda clicked, he is starting to have a good mixture of shooting and passing, and he is hitting some of his shots, unlike Rubio.

I could see a Mayo/Beasely swap by the trade dead line, and I think both teams would be better from it, and both players. I think both Beasely, and Mayo need a new scenery in order to thrive. There are a few other G out there that I would love to see on the team, but I dont see it happening during the season. Possibly in the offseason, we may be able to get a better SG here. I think Lee will be back soon, and he has been training to fill in at SG, but he will just be another undersized, PG/SG mix that will under perform. Not that Mayo is any bigger then Lee, but it is his natural position.

I guess Lee is back with the team, but they said they plan on taking it slow with him. So time will tell!

[Scott M]

Interesting article with implications for the Timberwolves:

The Secret to Jeremy Lin's success

by John Hollinger, ESPN.com

There's the one obvious side to the Jeremy Lin story -- I'll trust that you've heard it by now -- which is that Lin is a far better basketball player than anyone imagined.

But for the Knicks there's a second, equally important side, one that has played just as large a factor in their going from 8-15 with Lin on the pine to 7-0 with him playing. And that factor provides a kernel of hope to several other teams in similar predicaments.

That side is the dismal point guard play New York was getting before Jeremania struck. Toney Douglas (PER 6.55), Mike Bibby (6.43) and Iman Shumpert (10.63) all were somewhere between replacement-level and close-your-eyes awful before Lin took over. In fact, Douglas and Bibby are 59th and 60th, respectively, in PER out of the league's 62 qualifying point guards.

And this, paradoxically, provided the Knicks with a real opportunity: If they could just replace the terrible players with somebody halfway decent, it would improve the team significantly. Replace them with a star, and you get Linsanity.

It's uncommon for a team to have a rotation player with PER marks in the single digits for any length of time, especially for players who aren't elite defensive specialists. The Knicks, however, had Bibby and Douglas combining for over 30 minutes a game while both were working on train-wreck caliber seasons. Thus, there was a huge opportunity for the Knicks if they could find a quality replacement.

Conversely, it's very different if you have a team full of average-to-good players like, say, Denver, which has had very few minutes this season come from under-performing players. As a result, changing out any Nuggets player with another isn't likely to greatly alter the team's fortunes -- even adding a player of Lin's caliber wouldn't have nearly the same impact that it's had on the Knicks.

Along similar lines, Linsanity wouldn't have had anywhere near the same impact in Golden State or Houston, his two former clubs -- replacing Stephen Curry (PER 21.57) or Kyle Lowry (19.71) with Lin would likely have generated only a small change in said team's fortunes. Even using him as a backup would have been a far lesser improvement than the one the Knicks saw, as Golden State (with Nate Robinson) and Houston (with Goran Dragic) already get good production from those spots.

Which takes us to today's project: The BAD rating.

BAD stands for Below Average Dependency, and what it shows is how much non-production teams are getting from replacement-level or worse players.

A high score in BAD represents both a problem and an opportunity. The problem is that a lot of crappy players are dragging the team down, but the opportunity is that replacing them with just an average player will cause the team to dramatically improve -- perhaps not as much as Lin improved the Knicks, but enough to cause a wave.

To calculate BAD, I started with every player with a PER below 12. I subtracted his PER from 12, and multiplied by his minutes played. For example, a player with a PER of 10 and 200 minutes played would add 400 BAD points for his team.

I then summed the BAD rating across all the players on the team, so that all 30 teams had a rating. And what it found, not surprisingly, was that the Knicks were among the teams most ripe for a Linsanity situation: They're seventh in the league in BAD overall, and their point guard position rated as the second-worst of any individual spot.

BAD: Worst by position

Team Position Players BAD

Nets Small forward Stevenson, James, Sha. Williams, Owens 7,856

Knicks Point guard Bibby, Shumpert, Douglas 5,794

Kings Small forward Salmons, Garcia, Outlaw 5,663

Lakers Point guard Fisher, Blake, Goudelouck, Morris 4,925

Timberwolves Small forward Johnson, Webster 4,749

Looking at the chart, you can see that New York point guard was one of the league's greatest turnaround opportunities. Plugging in a decent player would improve the Knicks greatly, and plugging in a star would more than offset the loss of Carmelo Anthony, and that is what has happened.

Lin could have had a similarly outsized impact with the Lakers, but otherwise the weak links around the league are at small forward. As with the Knicks' point guard situation, this speaks both to a real problem for the Nets, Wolves and Kings and to potential for sudden improvement should they find even halfway-decent solutions.

The good news for each is that help may be on the way. Minnesota may eventually have an answer in Derrick Williams or Michael Beasley, while the Kings and Nets are both likely to have high draft picks. As for the Lakers' point guard hole, that one seems a bit thornier to solve.

Speaking of which ...

BAD: Worst by team

Team BAD

Lakers 12,499

Magic 10,565

Nets 10,020

Timberwolves 9,392

Pistons 9,205

If you're wondering how the Lakers are 17-12 despite having three of the best players in the league, here's your answer. The chart shows that the Lakers lead the league in BAD, with only four players having a PER above 12. Metta World Peace leads the way with 3,553 BAD points (fifth league-wide), but the point guards and frontcourt reserves are also major contributors. In their infinite wisdom, the league's coaches decided to punish Pau Gasol for this by keeping him off the Western Conference All-Star team.

Orlando ranks second, with horrid point guard play the main reason, although the Magic have at least begun to remedy a bit of the problem: Larry Hughes, with a horrid minus-4.84 PER in 114 minutes, was one of the worst offenders but has been waived.

Unfortunately for Dwight Howard, the grass on the other side of the fence may not be greener: New Jersey is right behind the Magic in this category, with its phenomenally bad small forward play the main culprit. The Nets' BAD from small forwards is worse than that of 18 other entire teams.

In each case, this represents an opportunity too. If L.A. or Orlando could just acquire a league-average point guard at the trade deadline (coughRamonSessionscough), it might improve their chances considerably.

BAD: Best by team

Team BAD

Bulls 0

Nuggets 478

Rockets 1,078

76ers 1,264

Spurs 1,844

Alternatively, we can look at teams with the lowest BAD to see those that are a bit "maxed out." Take the Bulls, for instance, who amazingly don't have a single minute played this season from a player with a PER below 12. (At the moment, at least -- Ronnie Brewer and Brian Scalabrine are very close.)

Similarly, Denver, Houston, Philadelphia and San Antonio are four of the league's deepest teams and have benefited from that bench strength this season. The glass-half-empty look at their depth, however, is that there isn't the opportunity for the kind of explosive improvement from a single move that we saw from the Knicks with Lin.

In the big picture, none of these teams can expect a Jeremy Lin to burst onto the scene. What's happened with him is a once-a-decade phenomenon at best. But for the likes of Minnesota, New Jersey, the Lakers and Orlando, their heavy use of under-performing players comes with the opportunity for a micro-version of Linsanity that can catapult them significantly forward.

[schmitty3]

Great win for the Wolves. Pek was unbelievable! K Love had a quite 33 & 17 lol. Rubio and Wes also had good games, shooting high %'s. They were so much better with Beasley off the floor. The ball is moving, and they are getting open shots. When Beasley is in, it's isolation for him when he gets the ball, and he either makes the shot or misses. Not much chance for O rebounds either, as nobody is switching to guard him.

[Scott M]

Yep, Beasley has gotta go.

Nice win over Houston. 3 outta 4 for the season series. That should help if they are battling for a playoff spot. Gotta be more consistent. A solid 2 guard would help...trade deadline is coming, lotsa Wolfie rumors.

[cjac]

Fun game to watch, good inside presence with Pek and Love obviously.

Most telling play to me was the pick 'n' roll which Rubio canned a 20' jumper on with about 2 minutes to go. He can shoot, not just his flat-footed set shot, but he canned that "J" in stride like he meant it. Wolves need to get Ricky involved more in the flow as a shooter to keep the "D" honest and give him that in-flow look & open up more passing lanes.

Watch the replay....he elevated and stepped into that shot with a pure shooters form, compared to his flat-footed set shot from the perimeter.

[mrklean]

Love does it again 2 free throws to win the game.

[Scott M]

Solid win against a GOOD Philadelphia team. Love seals it at the FT line. Glaring zero point performance from Wes Johnson. Hope they can find a competent two guard by the trading deadline for the sake of this year's team.

[Scott K]

I would love for them to get a SG/SF this year, just to get more time, and mesh with the team more to make a run for next year. I think they will try making a go at getting a wing man yet this season, but I think it would be dumb, to make a trade, just for the sake of trading. If they are going to get one, they need to get a quality guard, not just another has been.

[schmitty3]

Great win for the Wolves. The sixers are a very good team. Love stepped up again in the 4th after really struggling the first 3 quarters. Rubio was making some shots, and scored a career high 22. Wes was terrible again, but played decent defense. It would have been nice if they could have got JR Smith. He is a scrappy player, and great 3 point shooter. He showed that yesterday in his debut for the Knicks. Big game tonight in Denver. We can get even with them, and possibly get in a tie for the 8th spot with a Portland loss as well.

[mrklean]

Its time to dump Beasely trade him off for anything its pretty clear he doesnt fit in there game plan anymore his time is getting shorter every night trade him off for any draft pick at this point

[Scott K]

I am sure Beasely will be traded in a package deal to help fill out wing need. As far as picks, we dont need any now, we need a vet that is a proven player. We have such a young team, we dont need more youth at this point.

[mrklean]

only reason i said picks is i dont think there is much of a value for him anymore, i dont think people want his attitude on there team or his shoot first attitude also, but a vet would be nice

[Scott K]

You would be surprised, other teams actually have a value on him, and would love to get him. His style of play, just isnt what Adelmann wants (or me). We will get something for him in a package deal. He also has valus just for having an expiring contract, and for the fact he will be easy to resign cheap, and still can thrive under someone else offense.

[mrklean]

i hope so this team is really coming together only 1 game out of the 8th spot for playoffs would be awesome if they could make it

[PierBridge]

I'll be shocked if we make any deals this season other than maybe dumping Bease for a sack of potatoes. And that will be a semi-has been for semi-has been trade not any multi-player deal....IMO..

[First Ice-Mike]

Oh man - Anthony Tolliver needs to be buried on the end of the bench. I don't get why he is getting minutes over AR. At least AR is a threat to score the ball.

FI

[Scott K]

Lets hope to finish off like we played in the first.

[schmitty3]

That was some of the worst officiating I have ever seen. It went both ways, bad calls all over the place. This win woulda been real nice, but oh well. What was Martell thinking at the end there???

[Bryce]

What was coach thinking by leaving him in the game after such a play? Will coach even be able to communicate with him about it? Ridnour is terrible again. Does the NBA have an NIT tourney so we can hopefully one day see playoff bb in mn?

[Scott M]

They left a win on the table...they will have to get hot in the second half because they've blown too many games to sneak into the playoffs at this point.

[pikestabber]

What is 102 minus 99? Apparently the answer is "2" if you are Martell Webster. WOW! That is quite possibly the dumbest professional sports play I have ever seen. Could you see the rest of the Wolves in the background throwing up their arms like "what the"! You can't blame it on "heat of the moment," or anything close, either. The last minute lasted 15 minutes with time outs, fouls, etc., every 5 seconds. EVERYONE knew what the score was and what had to happen, and amazingly we actually stole the inbound pass which very seldom happens and then...slam dunk? I was so dumbfounded. Trade Webster and Beasley for a pack of chewing gum and move on already. Had we won that game, we would have moved from 5th to 2nd in our division! Too much at stake for these types of mental mistakes (not to say there weren't LOTS of other errors in this game, too, like blown lay-ups and unforced turn-overs). Ah, well, just venting.

[schmitty3]

Oh man - Anthony Tolliver needs to be buried on the end of the bench. I don't get why he is getting minutes over AR. At least AR is a threat to score the ball.

FI

Anthony Tolliver was on the floor for 9 minutes and had a +/- of -17. That's the game right there...