Luckiest Team?

[LMITOUT]

No. Luck is random events that a human has no control over.

Your definition is the rah-rah psycho babble cheerleader garbage, i.e. something Brewster would regurgitate in an attempt to pump up his under-performing and over-coached team.

[Big Dave2]

Luck does not exist.

When someone wins the lottery, it is probability. When you roll the dice, it is probability. When you get struck by lightning or not struck by lightning, it is all just probability. Some might say that luck exist and that luck is just anouther word for probability. I have a problem with this though. The word luck implies that there is not randomess to it, it implies that a person can possess randomness or probability. A person cannot have luck. This is not possible. They can only be the recipients of favorable probability.

And for those that you think are lucky, People can exist outside of the bell curve of probability, but not forever.

Not everything however is probability. Getting in a car accident or not getting in an accident, part probability, part driving skill. Winning a game of Euker (a card game) , is part probability and part skill. The sooner people figure this out the better their world will be. That is because probability can be calculated and luck cannot.

A case in point. If one thinks they need luck to win the lottery, they might buy a ticket, but if that person just looks at the probability of winning the lottery, they will save themselves some money.

[Cooter]

Quote:

we all know Favre says this is the BEST team he's ever been LUCKY enough to be on

Thats just the painkillers talking Too bad he won't win a SB with 'the best' team he's ever been on.

[Jim Uran]

He might!!!!! Don't count us out yet.

[LMITOUT]

This is the description of "luck" by the person who makes the "Luckiest Team" list. You'll see below that he uses the term loosely as a way to describe the randomness of the game of football. It has nothing to do with the getting struck by lightning or winning the lottery. Those are completely different circumstances and I agree those are not "luck" but statistical probabilities.

What do I mean by luck?

In my own life, I'm a big believer in hard work, preparation, focus, execution and everything else that isn't luck. Coaches and players can't let themselves think any other way for a single second. But once we account for all those things, what do we call what's left over? Statisticians call it "residual," and a substantial portion of any residual is due to random effect, including sample error and what I call "bunching." In a bounded and meticulously measured system like sports, a vast amount of the residual from any decent model will be due to randomness. A season of 16 games simply isn't long enough for the breaks to even out.

There are plenty of things my model does not consider, special teams being the most prominent. But special teams plays are the most random events in the sport, save for the coin flip. Luck is a punt that lands on the 5 and skids into the end zone for touchback instead of bouncing into the air and being downed at the 1. A kick or punt return for a touchdown certainly requires skill, but when the kick return (or missed field goal or anything else) occurs means everything.

A missed FG when a team is already ahead by 20 points doesn't mean much, but when a team is behind by 1 in the 4th quarter, it means the game. Teams and players can't control when those events occur, or else they'd save up their successes for when they matter most and their failures for when they don't. So in a very substantial way, they are luck, at least when it comes to deciding game outcomes.

Schedule strength is part of luck too. Teams fortunate enough to have a soft schedule (so far) are likely to have more wins than a team unlucky enough to face a tougher schedule. Even though schedule strength is something real that can be measured, it still lies outside of a team's control.

[Big Dave2]

This is the description of "luck" by the person who makes the "Luckiest Team" list. You'll see below that he uses the term loosely as a way to describe the randomness of the game of football. It has nothing to do with the getting struck by lightning or winning the lottery. Those are completely different circumstances and I agree those are not "luck" but statistical probabilities.

What do I mean by luck?

In my own life, I'm a big believer in hard work, preparation, focus, execution and everything else that isn't luck. Coaches and players can't let themselves think any other way for a single second. But once we account for all those things, what do we call what's left over? Statisticians call it "residual," and a substantial portion of any residual is due to random effect, including sample error and what I call "bunching." In a bounded and meticulously measured system like sports, a vast amount of the residual from any decent model will be due to randomness. A season of 16 games simply isn't long enough for the breaks to even out.

There are plenty of things my model does not consider, special teams being the most prominent. But special teams plays are the most random events in the sport, save for the coin flip. Luck is a punt that lands on the 5 and skids into the end zone for touchback instead of bouncing into the air and being downed at the 1. A kick or punt return for a touchdown certainly requires skill, but when the kick return (or missed field goal or anything else) occurs means everything.

A missed FG when a team is already ahead by 20 points doesn't mean much, but when a team is behind by 1 in the 4th quarter, it means the game. Teams and players can't control when those events occur, or else they'd save up their successes for when they matter most and their failures for when they don't. So in a very substantial way, they are luck, at least when it comes to deciding game outcomes.

Schedule strength is part of luck too. Teams fortunate enough to have a soft schedule (so far) are likely to have more wins than a team unlucky enough to face a tougher schedule. Even though schedule strength is something real that can be measured, it still lies outside of a team's control.

These things are all "statistical probabilities". Eventually even an nfl kicker will miss what you consider a short field goal because it is a lot harder than it looks. Whether it comes at the beginning or end of a game makes no difference. It was a statistical probability blended in with how much skill the kicker, holder, snapper, and linemen have.

Same thing with a punted ball bouncing at the 5 and either going into the end zone or being downed at the 1 yard line. No luck, just skill on the part of all involved plus statistical probability.

[Cooter]

Well if da Queens win the SB they will indeed be the luckiest team!

[Jim Uran]

I"m sorry but an 11-2 is more than luck!!!

[Cooter]

Just what that 'more' is I'm not sure Must be fixed for Favre to have a good year. OK, so you know by now watching the Queens having a good year drives me nuts Just so long as they don't win the SB I'll be fine

[Rick]

LOL,

when Favre wins the superbowl with the best team he's ever been lucky enough to be on (his words) then, as a Packer fan, you will be forced to live in the here in now and no longer allowed to live as a Has-Been follower.

A person is better off being lucky than good I always say.

Although being "very good" and lucky like the Vikes is even better

[ANYFISH2]

But LMIT you said the Vikes where "lucky" in thier win over S.F., yet Farve made a good pass and Lewis made a great catch. The players prepaired the opportunity (that play and being behind with seconds left)presented its self. The vikes win and prove THE quote true.

[Cooter]

Not the has-been has-never-been junk again Can we switch to has-never-been-will-never-be instead? Even Favre can't break the curse!!!

[james_walleye]

This chart is all part of LMIT's bit. A lame, transparent bit that is really played out.

[LMITOUT]

You forgot "warped".