Fargo gets more bad news...

[Scoot]

Since there was a good discussion about this in here, I'll include the updated info:

The national weather service is warning valley flood fighters that a second crest of the Red River is likely to reach 41 feet in the latter half of April.

Forecasters says there's a 25 percent chance it could go to 42.8 feet. The new outlook is based on current snow pack and expected temperatures.

They say thunderstorms and a heavy rise in temperatures could change the situation for the worse.

[cbrooks]

We need a slow steady melt off. If it could just stay in the high 30's low 40's. What do you guys down in Fargo think your dikes could handle as far as crest level? Is there gonna be a need to do some more sandbagging? I hope the weather starts to be in your favor soon.

[BrianLucky13]

Fargo is good to about 43. But with all the pressure on some of those temporary dikes, thats a long time to have water on them. Fargo will prepare and we will have nothing to worry about. If we need people, they will come!!!

[Scoot]

Fargo is good to about 43. But with all the pressure on some of those temporary dikes, thats a long time to have water on them. Fargo will prepare and we will have nothing to worry about. If we need people, they will come!!!

Brian, not trying to argue, but I don't agree with some of what you said. The dikes are built to 43', but that certainly doesn't necessarily mean we're "good to about 43". They were "good to 43" before and we nearly lost the battle many times without reaching 41'. I hope I'm wrong and I'm being overly pessimistic, but I'm not sure I am.

I do totally agree with you about the last thing you said though- if we need people, they will come! God bless them, they will come!

[BrianLucky13]

You gotta be more positive there Scoot!!! After going through this in 97 and now in 2009, I have nothing but respect for the mayor and everyone else. They will have everything ready to go, thats for sure!!! Stay positive and hang in there.lol

[Scoot]

I think you're right (and that might not be the first time I've ever heard that in my life...)

I agree- I've got immense respect for the mayor and the administrative staff he's had on this. ...and, I WILL hang in there! We'll do our dangdest and see what happens.

Relax over the weekend folks, then we'll roll up our sleeves and get to work.

[MinnesotaMongo]

I know this has been brought up before - but the difference on how the midwest handles a disaster compared to other parts of the country is astounding. I know everyone calls us "fly over land" but the way this area goes about handling natural disasters makes a person darn proud!

Good job people!!

[BrianLucky13]

For some reason I just cant see the river getting higher then it did earlier. Unless we get some rain I'm thinking it will maybe get to 38 feet. Have they put a date out there yet on what day it might crest???

[cbrooks]

I think they said it will most likely be somewhere from April 15th to the 22nd. I think the forcasters predict the river on the high side so they won't have a repeat of the floods that happen in years before.

[marine_man]

They're predicting for 3' above the most recent record height in Lisbon about the same time frame... Looks like we'll be holding our breath for a while yet!

marine_man

[harvey lee]

I talked with the guy that owns the ranch I hunt on SW of fargo by the town of Leonard. The new bridge that was built approx 6 years ago by the place was never suppose to go under water.

It went under yesterday and the water is higher than it was in the 97 flood. Carter is now locked in at the sheyenne river goes down. Somwe roads to the east of the place are now washed out totally.

What a mess.

[Scoot]

Rob,

If you need people, let me know- I can round up some bodies and come down to help (as long as we're ok at my brother's place). I'd guess we could get half-a-dozen guys lined up in a hurry...

Tom, if Carter needs supplies or anything run out there, have him call my cell phone (if you don't have the number, e-mail me.) If he needs anything, I can run out there pretty quickly and can have a handful of guys rounded up to join me.

[Ed Carlson]

A lot of good folks around the Sheyenne will very likely need help this weekend and next week. The amount of water headed down it is unprecedented and breakouts are popping up all over the watershed.

If anybody needs help drop me a line, I'll try to help were I may.

[harvey lee]

Yes, when the Corp of Eng. opened the Bald Hill dam as they do every spring, it really floods out many areas downstream.

Carter stocked up with plenty of food and water and will now just sit it out.

Thank you all very much for the offer of help.

[iffwalleyes]

Ok well Valley City is at the point of wait and see right now. We have around 100 guardmans in town montioring the dikes in town. I was gone on Sat. and when I got home there were trucks loaded with clay all up and down the street I could barely get in the yard. Pretty crazy when I left from working on the Dike Fri everything was sounding pretty good so I became concerned. Well I went to find out it turned out water was coming back through the dike around a drain pipe from a storm water pump house. So between the contractors and national guard they were reinforcing and putting up a small secondary dike behind it. They worked through the night to get it done. When the sun came up you could barely tell they were there. They have been piling over all inlets and manholes in town as the storm sewer is backing up and starting to equalize.

Then today I was going to Casselton and by Oriska and Tower City there was water across I-94 traffic is still running but it is very backed up on the road.

I am so tired of water no one can even begin to imaging. I have been in Fargo, Valley City, and I am heading to Devils Lake to for an emergency job there too. I think I am going to have to get really used to the mud boots this summer.

With that I do believe that Fargo could see higher water than at the end of March.

In Valley City we are built to 24' and expect something in the neighborhood of 22.2 or so. But it is an extended level for over a week between 20-22 is what worrys me.

Understand something else. The Corp of Engineers is doing a great job at Baldhill. They have done everything they can do right now. They have to keep the gates open they can't just shut them if the water goes over the emergency spillway they have no control. They are having to monitor the inflows from as far as Harvey ND as it all comes through the dam. You can't just keep the gates closed and wait. They had the dam all the way as low as it could go it filled up and they have made pretty good progress dropping it again. The lake has 14' of storage in it from when it is at its lowest point to the highest point.

[marine_man]

Thanks for the offers for help everyone...

We've got just about everything on the second floor, and sandbagging is winding down for now. If anything comes up I'll let you know.

marine_man

[marine_man]

Here's the history on why things are they way they are:

This graph shows water content of precipitation per month.

marine_man

[Ed Carlson]

Yup, this event really started building momentum about last June.

When we went into late fall and freeze up with a saturated watershed and the rivers as high as I have ever seen them in the fall, I knew we already had a serious problem for spring. How large of an event was to be determined over the winter, but it was going to happen, no surprise there.

The problem in fighting "The Event" is it is endemic, and in the end is what has perpetuated this "Flood Fight" cycle. The hard choices need to be made for long term flood control basin wide.

Thinking needs to evolve to "Flood Management and Mitigation" and the dollars spent accordingly because seasonally fighting rivers has proven not to be the answer, or cost effective.

Hindsight is 20/20 and doesn't fill too many sand bags. The fight is on us now, and the people of the region are once again stepping up to do there darnedest to protect there family's, friends, and neighbors.

[marine_man]

Well... it was announced this morning that the dikes in Fort Ransom & Lisbon were going to be raised to 25' (up 1 foot). Depending on the rain forecasted for the end of the week (NWS Forecast Discussion seems to be thinking it'll stay south), and the rain the upper basin got over the weekend will increase the crest to 23'. The sandbag dikes are about as high as they can go, so it sounds like contingency dikes are going to start going up.. hopefully they won't be needed!

marine_man

[Ed Carlson]

I think that is a wise move. Even without the rains the wild cards to the North can change that level fairly quickly for many reasons yet. Ice jams get replaced by massive log jams in that region fairly easily.

Those breakouts, some are 10 miles wide now, all need to find there way back into the river and they are far from predictable in how they do that, and when.

How is Fort Ransom doing in this deal so far?

[marine_man]

So far so good as far as I've heard.

As announced an hour or two ago, about 1/2 of valley city has voluntarily been asked to evacuate by 6:00 tonight.

marine_man

[marine_man]

Things are starting to get interesting down here... Kathryn is evacuating due to the the Clausen Springs Dam is starting to fail.

marine_man

[iffwalleyes]

Well I was one of the lucky that was asked to leave my home. It becomes a very real situation when that happens. I have been working on flood issues for near to a month now but this made it really real for me. When working around the dike public asked is everything ok are they high enough? I am constantly saying you have nothing to worry about or they are doing a great job but then all of a sudden when faced with asking to move from your home I found myself questioning the same thing. I know that the majority of the reason was to help with traffic as we only have one open bridge in town. Also for the sewer system is under a great deal of use. I have watched the dikes built and know the ones by my house are one of the best in town. But still you worry. For the most part people listened to it but there are plenty that stayed. I spent the better part of two days moving things upstairs and then to other people places. There was some rays of hope yesterday. The corp said the river might have crested but it is dependant on the amount of rain this weekend pretty much. The river is actually going back down. But according to NOAA it could go back up next week again so actually might kind of be a third crest. I am thankful for all of the offerings of help from friends and family. My wife and I had people from Wi call and offer. My one friend fro SD called tues and said he could be here by night. All are well appreciated. So now I will sit back and hope for the best. I is giving me the chance to test out my camper that we just got at least. I think I have the bugs all worked out of it.

Also side note the Clausen Spring Dam was sealed up yesterday but now has begin leaking again. The nation guard blackhawks have been dropping 1 tons sand bags for a while again.

[Scoot]

Thanks for the update, Jason. We're pulling for you- not your family, but for your community as a whole (and all the other towns that are in a similar pickle right now).

If you need bodies out there, be sure to let us know. There are a lot of people who can buzz out there pretty quickly here in Fargo. With the lowered crest on the Red I think people feel better about leaving here to help elsewhere. We got so much help from others during Fargo's bad stretch, the least we could do is return the favor!

I'll continue to include all of those with water problems in my prayers too!

[Scoot]

Scary stuff in Lisbon today. Rob, you guys hangin' in there?