2011-2012 Gophers

[Scott M]

6 Big Ten teams ranked in the Top 25 (Coaches Poll), including #2 Ohio State. Two other teams receiving votes (Purdue, Northwestern). Not a pretty picture as the conference season looms.

[Scott M]

Gophers take care of business, 76-56 over Central Michigan. 18 turnovers by your Gophers keep things under 20 points for most of the game. Lately its been a different guy stepping up each game, and tonight was no different.

Great start for Austin Hollins, he finishes with 12 points on 5 of 7 shooting. Welch had a steady 15. Tim Doyle's comparison to Andre Miller last week is a fitting description of his playing style. He's good at carving out space with his body. Rodney does a poor man's Damian Johnson impression, filling out his stat sheet. Mav got the start at the 1 and dropped in ten points and 3 assists. Joe Coleman exhibits the efficiency the coaching staff loves with 12 points in 15 minutes. The rest of the bench submitted a bucket or two and everybody played.

Gophers got some open looks and shot 57/47/77 (FG%/3PT%/FT%) while holding CMU to 36/41/63.

Have you noticed all year long, actually for four years, one name that has been lost? Yep, it's Charmin Sampson III. He had a play tonight that was indicative of his playing career. He jogs down on a run out and Mav delivers the ball in his hands in stride with no one in front of him on the right elbow. He misses the pass out of bounds and gets pulled. He's been tweeting about how he doesn't need to show emotion, and he's 100% correct, but what he does need to show, and what he's never shown, is intensity. He's been the soft 7 footer that gets pushed around, that never developed. I never expected him to be the second coming of Ralph Sampson, the National Player of the Year ('81, '82, '83), but I darn sure expected some intensity from him. I've seen some jabronis from SDSU push the guy around...Jared Sullinger is going to eat his lunch! If this guy just got a tinge better each year we'd be talking about the NCAA tournament. Instead, we are talking about a NIT berth. Enjoy this last cupcake romp with NDSU because it's going to be a long conference season. Tubby will probably get to 20 wins late in the year in some second or third tier invitational tournament, but it's going to be another disappointing year in a results-oriented business.

[EBass]

Quote:

Have you noticed all year long, actually for four years, one name that has been lost?

Yes I've noticed that. The only game he played really well was against NC last year in the PR tourney. It's like he really doesn't want to be there. Like he's thinking of his game plan for COD that night. He should have a chip on his shoulder when he wanted to enter the draft and everyone was like why bother. Wouldn't that motivate him? Guess not.

[Scott K]

I just wanted to say thanks for the write ups Scott! I usually dont have the time to watch the games, and I get a better read from your write ups, then I do from the media write ups.

[Snag]

Sampson is so lost out there. I grew up in Virginia and it pains me to think that he is related to Ralph. I think he just plays basketball because his Dad did and he is tall. I don't see any emotion from him and he never plays hard.

Williams has picked up his game since moving to the 4. I like Welch and his consistency. I think he's our only hope of winning some big ten games. Coleman has started to look better the last few games. I'm still waiting for Hollins to take a shot without thinking about it. All the regulars have some talent, but they all seem to be missing something in their games.

[schweady]

Is there free access to a live video feed of tonight's game? Looks like Gopher All Access is fee-based, and I don't see it on any schedule on btn.com... ?

[Scott M]

Fee based at BTN I'm afraid. We're out of luck.

[Scott M]

Just for Cooter...

Wisconsin: The Most Boring Team in America

by Shane Ryan, Grantland.com

Let's say the following happened:

1. You experienced a flash of inspiration.

2. You decided to remake 1997's The Devil's Advocate, a film starring Keanu Reeves as a hotshot lawyer and Al Pacino as his boss. For those who don't remember or haven't yet seen it, Pacino's character turns out to be Satan. Sorry for the spoiler. (At the end, Reeves kills himself in a display of free will after finding out that Pacino is both Satan and his father. But it turned out all to be a dream, or a premonition, or something.)

3. You opted to stage your remake in the world of college basketball.

Assuming you went through these steps -- and I don't recommend it, beyond the original flash of inspiration -- there's only one man you could cast in the role of Lucifer: Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan.

Why? Well, first off, he looks like you might expect the devil to look like if he returned to Earth. Look at the picture above, or just do a Google image search for “Bo Ryan.” The menacing eyes, the wicked grin, the villain's hair; it's evident.

Second, I think he might be a threat to ruin the game.

On Tuesday night, the Badgers survived against UW-Milwaukee, Ryan's former team, winning 60-54. Before we get into that, though, I'd like to take you back to the evening of Nov. 30, when the Badgers visited Chapel Hill. I wrote about the game here, and would like to revisit one particular scene:

Carolina fans have a habit of ratcheting up the noise when the opponent's shot clock nears the 10-second mark, and usually they've got it right; if a team can't create a shot by then, they're out of sorts and close to panic. But it slowly dawned on the Heel faithful that their cheers were misplaced against Wisconsin.

The reason the cheers were off-base was that Ryan's Badgers usually don't shoot until the very end of the shot clock. And while the game against Carolina was a fascinating clash of styles (the Tar Heels are one of the 10 fastest teams in the country, and they won that game 60-57), a harrowing thought occurred to me afterward -- what if every team played like Wisconsin?

Frankly, there's no reason they shouldn't. Ryan has had unbelievable success since he took over in 2001, winning three Big Ten regular season championships, two Big Ten tournament championships, and earning an NCAA berth every single year. His resume in March has been a bit disappointing -- the Badgers have reached the Elite Eight just once, and they've lost in the first or second round in six of his ten years -- but the continued success of Ryan's teams can't be questioned.

And how has he done it? What do I mean when I say “play like Wisconsin”? Ryan's style, first and foremost, is a matter of pace. More to the point, his teams play slow, boring basketball. It's Ryan's way of neutralizing talent; according to ESPN's rankings, he hasn't had a Top 25 recruiting class in the past six years. And I'm not even sure he's trying. Instead, he goes after players who fit his system, and spends his time grooming them to be efficient upperclassmen. This year follows form; of the six players who earn the most minutes per game, four are juniors or seniors, and none are freshmen.

And all of them play at a snail's pace. There are currently 345 teams in Division I, and of those, Wisconsin ranks 345th in adjusted tempo, per Ken Pomeroy. Even without adjusting for the pace of an opponent, Wisconsin averages just 60.2 possessions per game, third-lowest in the country. And it goes without saying that if Wisconsin manages just 60 possessions per game, that's exactly what the other team is getting.

As far as I can tell, the reasoning behind Ryan's system is two-fold:

1. It frustrates the opposing offense. When a team fails to score against Wisconsin, it knows it have to wait at least 30 seconds before it gets another chance. The pressure mounts on every possession, and small deficits suddenly loom large. Ryan recruits strong, tough defenders, and their stinginess only augments that aura of impenetrability.

2. It wears down the defense. By forcing a team to defend for 30 seconds on almost every possession, Ryan exposes flaws in the opponent that tend to become exaggerated by mental and physical fatigue as the game goes along. The withering persistence clearly takes its toll on the defense, but there's a less obvious effect on offense; when a team is preoccupied on one end, it becomes more prone to errors and quick shots on the other, which plays right into Wisconsin's hands.

Three scores from this season demonstrate the extent to which the Badgers change the way basketball is played.

1. UNLV 90, UNC 80

2. UNC 60, Wisconsin 57

3. Wisconsin 62, UNLV 51

UNLV and UNC love to run, and the Running Rebels surprised the Tar Heels early in the season in a fast, breakneck game. North Carolina was content to beat them at their own game, and would have in most cases due to superior talent. But when both teams faced Wisconsin, the Badgers imposed a different style. Which illuminates an important point -- it's much easier to slow a game down than speed it up. Unless you establish an early lead on Wisconsin and force the Badgers into catch-up mode, how can you ever make them shoot the ball early? It's impossible, and that's the essence of Ryan. He coaches from a position of strength, compelling other teams to adjust to him.

If there's a psychological philosophy behind all this, you could call it “enforced frustration.” Ryan's design is not to beat the other team, or to prove Wisconsin's superior ability, but rather to nullify another team's strength and experience while undermining their confidence. He doesn't want a fair fight, because he knows he'd lose. By limiting opportunities and forcing an unfamiliar style, Ryan, like an [PoorWordUsage] in an argument, brings the opponent to Wisconsin's level and beats them with experience. Or maybe a better comparison would be to guerrilla fighters who force a larger, flashier, more well-equipped army to engage them on mountainous terrain. The training and experience of the invading force is nullified, as are many of their weapons, and the guerrillas have an advantage because they know the land.

If anything, Ryan has bunkered deeper into this mindset over his years at Wisconsin. The bar graph below shows three data points for Badger teams since the 2004-05 season. The first is defensive efficiency, as measured by how many points Wisconsin concedes per 100 possessions. The second is offensive efficiency, or how many they score per 100 possessions. Last is adjusted tempo; how fast they play. The team's respective Division I ranking is shown for each season. Note that that year on the x-axis denotes when the season started, so that 2011 represents the current 2011-12 season.

As you see, while there have been fluctuations in offense and defense, the pace has gone steadily downward. Ryan is like a stubborn auteur filmmaker with a strange aesthetic that becomes more pronounced over time. He's the David Lynch of basketball coaches.

Here are a couple stretches of play from last night's game against UW-Milwaukee.

First half, 16:07 - 6:19 -- Milwaukee scores four points.

Second half, 15:18 - 5:36 -- Wisconsin scores three points.

And that's not atypical. Ten minutes without scoring? No big deal in Badger world. It's the long haul that matters, and the fact that scoring droughts aside, they'll emerge as victors because they understand how to play dull.

Now, pretend you're a coach at a BCS conference in Division I. Your school is middle of the pack or lower, and you struggle to recruit against the high-profile teams. Why wouldn't you adapt Ryan's style? Doesn't it make sense? He routinely beats teams with more talented players, and he's building something like a legacy in Madison. You don't need to worry about stars; Ryan's best player this season is Jordan Taylor, and he's averaging just 11.8 points per game. All you need are guys who are willing to work hard, forsake glory, and submit totally to a system of patience and discipline.

Fortunately, most new coaches don't follow this formula. I say “fortunately” because Ryan's philosophy produces plodding, unattractive basketball. It frankly takes the joy out of the game, and I can honestly say that if I were a Wisconsin fan, I'd trade the steady success of the Ryan years for something more dynamic. I know that sentiment may not be shared in Madison, but there's something retrograde and cynical about holding the ball for 30 seconds on every possession, not to mention the idea of designing a team around an ideal of psychological frustration. It almost makes you long for the NBA's 24-second clock.

And if a Ryan Revolution ever took hold, the NCAA would have to adjust. The Badgers have blatantly exploited the shot clock. By ignoring the intent of the 1985 rule change, they've laid out a risky blueprint for college basketball. The devil is always, always in the details.

**********************

I got a laugh out of the article (Ryan does look like the devil), but I think most programs would love to have Wisconsin's success. Everybody wants scoring in the game, but if you want to win games, you find guys that play defense. Ryan has done that with a whole team. Besides, you can't knock Ryan's team for having no scoring punch and in the same article point out that his teams have fewer possessions because of how they play defense and hold the ball.

[Scott M]

An eye for an eye...

Minnesota Basketball: Waiting for Tubby

by Jon Dolan, Grantland.com

One of my top five opening lines in a novel belongs to Samuel Beckett's darkly comic dagger-turn of a debut, Murphy: "The sun shone, having no alternative, on the nothing new." Don’t that just sum about 78.4 percent of it up? It certainly does if the "it" in question was the game I watched Tuesday night. The fluorescent sun did indeed pour down on Williams Arena for Minnesota (10-1) and Central Michigan (4-4) — warm-up threads were donned, layup drills run, and 40 minutes of going up and down an oddly raised wood surface with some maroon-painted polyurethane lines around were enacted. Fouls were called, bottles of water consumed. Then an overbearingly loud horn sounded and a Big Ten team's schedule was duly padded in an easy win against a middling mid-major. Padded for what purpose, you ask? Good question. None, really. Because the Minnesota Gophers season is over.

It ended the Sunday after Thanksgiving, when senior power forward Trevor Mbakwe went down with a torn ACL in a blowout loss to the Dayton Flyers in the Old Spice Classic. Most preseason polls had the Gophers finishing seventh at best in the Big Ten. As last night's ESPN crew pointed out several thousand times (each time more assiduously than the last), he was their key to the bubble: a dominant inside presence who was last year's conference rebounding leader and a possible first-round draft pick. His loss is just the latest blow in the Lars von Trier highlight reel that has been Tubby Smith's four-seasons-and-counting tenure in Minneapolis: a funeral procession of injuries, transfers, suspensions, a five-star recruit who announced he was leaving the team on YouTube, a talented point guard whose mom e-mailed a local journalist at 3 a.m. to get the word out that her son needed to start seeing other people (like Oregon). Last year was especially torturous; after beating North Carolina and West Virginia in the same weekend at a salsa-fueled tournament in Puerto Rico, senior star Al Nolen went down for the year and they finished the season losing 10 of their last 11 games. This year, like all years, offered the promise of transition. Without Mbakwe, they're a team in transition the way early '90s Yugoslavia was a nation in transition.

The Gophers are still 10-1, a record they’ve amassed in the traditional fake way by playing a non-conference schedule larded with baker's colleges and mime academies. I hadn't had a chance to check them out since Thanksgiving, but what struck me about Tuesday night's win wasn't how terrible they seemed without Mbakwe but how inchoately engaging they might've grown to become with him. Who knows? A break here, an injured Purdue star there, they might've oozed their way up toward the top of the Big Ten's squishy middle tier.

In the obtuse cosmology of preseason hoops, the game itself constituted something resembling a test. The best player on the floor was Central Michigan's Trey Zeigler, a Big Ten-caliber guard who was recruited by several major programs (and some less-than-major ones, like the Gophers) but chose to play for his dad, Chippewas coach Ernie Zeigler. The Chippewas started out strong against the newly center-less Gophers (center-less in the existential sense; they have a center — Ralph Sampson III, a promisingly named but ultimately ill-defined youth with the soft, brooding eyes of a café poet and the impressionistic intensity of a jazz flutist). For a while, they looked liked the better shooting team and the most aggressive on defense (Mbakwe's slack-picker-upper Rodney Williams is himself somewhat hobbled and never really showed up beyond one gob-stopping, if meaningless, dunk in the first half). But the Gophers picked up the tempo, got some turnovers, spread the Chippies' zone further than its super-structure would countenance, and opened up with easy looks for a set of guards who would've been a nice complement to the good ol' Big Ten kidney-punching inside team Tubby had to ready to roll around Mbakwe. By the time Zeigler got going in the second half, the coffin had already been shipped. Honestly, though, there were several points early on and near the end where telling the difference between the MAC team and the Big Ten team was like telling the difference between third and fourth act at New Band Night over at the 7th Street Entry (assuming that vaunted institution remains extant).

The Gophers will never make it as a shooting team in the Big Ten, and playing for the NIT is a hard thing when it's only mid-December. But Samuel Beckett suffered from cataracts, emphysema, and the recurrent visitation of boils on his neck and [badWordUsage], plus the burden of being a genius. So, hey, Gopher Nation, keep that in mind while you're out shoveling the driveway this winter. There is always the misery of our fellow man to console us as we slog toward the next smeared sunrise.

*****************

That was an ugly game with Central Michigan, and this guy just humorously states what I've been saying all along. It's sad they were a bubble team WITH Mbakwe, it's going to be a tough B1G conference season.

[Scott M]

Gophers win 63-59, Ugly game after a long layoff. Sampson with 15, Ahanmisi with 13, and Rodney with 14. Elliason with 6 and Armelin with 7. Poor showing from Austin and Andre Hollins.

Not a lot of assists or crisp passing, but at least they didn't turn it over like crazy (12). Rodney's 3-8 free throw shooting kept the door open for the Bison.

[Scott M]

81-72, Gophers lose in Champagne in double overtime. Multiple opportunities to win this game and the Gophers can't do it. Welch misses a free throw at the end of regulation that would have put the game out of reach, then later misses a layup that would have given the Gophers the lead late in the first overtime. The team completely falls apart in the second overtime. Rodney disappeared in the second half as he does from time to time, then fouls out in the second overtime. If this team was going to make the NCAA tournament, they need to win some road games, heck they need to win period. Welch made some plays and looked the part until he couldn't ice it. What a shame. There are no points for moral victories. It doesn't get any easier with Michigan away on New Years Day.

[Scott K]

It was a close game, and they played well, until the last couple minuted of 0t2. They just could not make a shot, or hang on to the ball.

[blue_healer_guy]

Is this program any better off the last 5 yrs with Tubby? Not a rip, I just keep seeing the same thing over and over. His talent he has recruited is not that good. Im glad sampson is a senior. Hes played no better as a senior than a freshman. Numbers may prove me wrong but I fall asleep watching him.

[Harmonica Bear]

I was at the last game Monson coached before he was fired. Are we better now. Absolutely, without a doubt. The real question is are we where we expected to be 5 years with Tubby?

[Scott M]

Interesting weekend in the Big Ten, Indiana knocks off Ohio State at home and Iowa beats Wisconsin at Madison.

Gophers find a way to hang in and lose 61-56, as will be the case all year long. They could never get over the hump and take the lead and trailed all game. No one could guard the freshman Burke. Defense was too stretched out and didn't work as a team to rebound, giving up 14 offensive rebounds. Balanced scoring for the Gophers, but not enough to win the game. Wednesday's game hosting Iowa becomes a must win, unfortunately it's always been this way with Tubby, dig a big hole in the conference schedule and try to recover.

[Scott M]

Only the Gophers can go up 11, then get creamed through the rest of the game. Yes, Iowa beat Wisconsin. Yes, they are a very experienced team. However, you have to beat them to get a meager number of Big Ten wins. This is looking like last year all over again. I predicted this, but I oh so wanted to be wrong. Iowa flustered the Gophers with an aggressive 2-3 zone, but the Gophers should be prepared for it. They play Northwestern twice a year! It sucks to watch a team out-work the Gophers, but that's exactly what happened. Sampson and Rodney needed to step up and they are content to watch, Sampson to let others push him around and get every loose ball. Iowa grabs 12 offensive rebounds and dominates the hustle stats. Offensively, the Gophers were lost again. No movement or penetration against the zone. Instead they settled for contest 3's and missed badly, shooting 4 for 23. Ahanmisi misses a running tear drop off the glass at the buzzer that would have tied it.

[Dotch]

They've managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory 3 games in a row now. Way to go, dummies. Disgusting, deplorable, disgraceful. And against the Hawkeyes, whose fans are only slightly less obnoxious than Packers fans!

[Bryce]

How hard do you suppose Clem and Tubby laugh when they get together? Can we send U administration to LA with the Vikings too?

[Scott M]

Amelia Rayno, Star Tribune

With such a young squad, one might imagine inexperience and youth could be one of the Gophers’ biggest problems as they try to recover from an 0-3 start to the Big Ten schedule.

One would be wrong.

“I thought our young guys did a heck of a job,” coach Tubby Smith said. “I’m worried about my veteran players – that’s my biggest concern.”

It seemed he had one in mind with his statement, and not without cause. Ralph Sampson III got out to a hot start, scoring six of the Gophers first 10 points – but when the team needed him most, the senior did was he has done far too often this season: disappear.

Consider this: those first three shots Sampson took were all from at least 8-10 feet out. When the Hawkeyes went to zone defense, Sampson was overwhelmingly boxed out, despite the fact that Iowa really had no real size matchup for him.

“I was very disappointed we didn’t get the ball inside. I need Ralph to go to the rim, attack the basket, not settle for jump shots and be stronger with the ball,” Smith said with clear frustration in his voice. “I just think he needs to catch the ball closer to the basket where people can foul him and he can use his size – I mean, he is 6-11.”

Getting to the free throw line has been a recent weakness for the Gophers, who have not made more than 10 trips in each of the last two games. It’s not all the fault of Sampson – who was 0-for-1 on Wednesday, and didn’t go to the line at all against Michigan after a 6-for-6 performance at Illinois. But as the team’s only real big man left in the Mbakwe-less starting five, it is Sampson’s job to be aggressive in the paint, throw his weight around, to find the basket and get to the line.

The Gophers need that if they’re going to win games in the Big Ten.

***************************************************

Inject Tubby with some truth serum and he'd be singing about Charmin Sampson III. More turnovers (6) than rebounds (4) last night. The game is about mentality, and usually college coaches change your mentality and expectations of yourself. I played against NFL Tight Ends John Carlson and Matt Spaeth in high school and pushed them around even though they were way bigger (Spaeth more than Carlson to be honest) in height and weight. Today I couldn't get to the paint against them because they are as well mentally trained as they are physically. It's all how teams and players mentally prepare and Tubby's teams look lost.

The Gopher practices have to be awful. I would love to sit in on practice, I bet it's a joke. I'm sure they do the physical preparations, running, drills. But they aren't ready for the mental challenges of playing. I'm guessing players are tuning Tubby out. When I watch the FSN TV program "Inside the Barn" with Tubby Smith, and they do his last word segment, he struggles to ad lib about some buzzword, injecting a bunch of cliches. If I tune him out, what do the players do when they hear it day after day? He's got to freshen things up and change his approach because it's not working!

[CJH]

I was disgusted with their play in the second half. 4-23 from 3 pointers at home? I thought this was your best shooting team, Tubby?? You drove Iverson away for Ralphy the cream puff? This team, with this lineup, should be pressing large chunks of the game.

BTW, Cobbs (12pts/gm) and Devoe Joseph (15.2pts/gm) are both have good years - elsewhere!!!!

He's failed. He's lost 9 Big 10 games in a row now. We are going to have to put him out of his misery at some point. IF he's not fired, he needs to bring in a good offensive assistant coach and one that is an excellent recruiter.

So disappointed.............

[Dotch]

I haven't paid much attention to Cobbs but watched Joseph go 1 - 13 from the field in the Ducks game against Washington. He looked lost just like he did last year playing for the Gophers. Uninvolved, turning the ball over, like he really didn't care if he was out there or not. He's played 9 games and started 6 at this point so I'm curious to see how he reacts once they get into conference play with more games, fatigue, etc., etc. under his belt.

I'd love to see Tubby hire someone to take over the offense. They generally play defense decently so it would be a logical move. It would probably go a long way toward keeping guys here they've been losing whether he could recruit or not. And let's face it, losing Mbakwe in the Dayton game was the beginning of the end for this season. One can only wonder what the outcome of some of the games they've lost would've been had he still been playing. Unless Tubby is a total dummy, he'll have to do something soon or he will indeed wind up looking for another job.

[Bryce]

Sampson to the intramural team to start prepping for 2012 draft?

[Scott M]

Another loss, as predicted, 79-66. Just got back from that abomination. Sampson was cheered when he was pulled as he was getting pushed under the basket yet again. He's a total loss already. Welch can't get into the lane against the Big Ten...he could against the creampuffs but not the physical Big Ten. Apparently nobody could stick with DJ Byrd in the first half. For a team that's supposed to be good defensively, they sure jump for a lot of 30' pump fakes. Pretty tough to block three attempts, good teams close under control and put a hand in the shooter's face but our guys run out, jump, and end up selling popcorn. Play out of position that much and you'll give up a lot of wide open looks, and the Boilers got plenty of those going 10-12 on treys in the first half.

Coleman was one bright spot. He attacked hard, and although he missed a couple finishes at the rim that they really needed, he showed some potential. 14 points for him in his first start.

Rodney was decent with 19 and 14. Armelin brought 12 off the bench but missed a key tip dunk in the second half. He split time with Ahanmisi waving a red cape for Lewis Jackson to drive to the lane. It was a second half layup line.

Tubby finally pressed a little and got some turnovers from Purdue. His last set of quotes in the paper leading into the game talked about being more up tempo. How do you change the tempo? Add defensive pressure. Apparently he doesn't understand that a team with few shooters but good athletes with length would make for a good press. Somehow he thinks his team will magically find a way to pick up the tempo at 0-4 in the slow-it-down, value-the-possession Big Ten. Amazing that Tubby can get $2 mill a year for these results. His team, supposedly good on defense, could score a little bit tonight, but they couldn't get a stop to save their soul. When you give up nearly 50 in the first half, the other team can rest up in the second half and spread the floor.

[Scott M]

Took long enough. Gophers finally get a win 77-74, over Indiana. This was good revenge for last year when they dropped a game in Bloomington they should have won before Nolen was hurt. It wasn't a pretty win down they stretch but they occasionally showed some poise and really battled. It's better to be gritty than good in the Big Ten and the Gophers finally are starting to figure out that they have to win ugly. Bench all played, contributed, and scored. Austin Hollins really stepped up with 18. Great defensive effort. I just wish it wasn't too late.

[schweady]

"Ha Ha!... How 'Bout This?"

Gus Johnson