Ted Thompson - Have At It

[SkunkedAgain]

Okay, we're now six years into the Ted Thompson GM era. He was absolutely crucified by many Packer fans initially for letting Marco Rivera, Mike Wahle, and Darren Sharper go in free agency. Then he hired a nobody in Mike McCarthy to replace Mike Sherman as head coach. Turning a cold shoulder to Brett Favre was the icing on top of the cake. He was the villain of title town.

Some of us were staunch supporters (I'll toot my own horn here), but many were not. After six years at the helm, by my calculations, he has been the most successful GM for the Packers since the Lombardi days. What do you all think of Ted Thompson now?

[mrklean]

i think he has done some great stuff and some bonehead stuff, i wasnt a huge fan letting Sherman go but Mike has done a great job, the favre thing needed to be done or we might be like the vikes right now drafting hasnt been to bad besides Justin harrell thats a total BUST, but Hawk, Matthews, Rodgers, Raji not bad picks at all and picking up woodson when no one wanted him

[solbes]

Vikings fan here, so keep that in mind... I think Thompson's made some good acquisitions (ARodg being the best). But the proof is in the pudding. He's had just 1 division title and 1 wild card in 5 seasons. They were an awesome team in 07 just missing the SB. But they also had some dreadful seasons like 2005 (admittedly not Thompsons squad) and 2008.

Wouldn't you say the previous GM eras were better? Between 1995 and 2004 the Pack won the division 6 out of 10 years. 2 SuperBowl appearances. I don't know how much of this is GM vs #4, but putting a good squad on the field comes first. Hating the packers comes natural for me, but to me those were admirable teams fielded by the Cheese.

[SkunkedAgain]

I'll let you all peer into my statistical bag of tricks. Here is my analysis of Thompson's drafts. I only classify people as a good pick or bad pick, based upon whether they turned out to be a good player. Some players were good picks but snatched away by other teams:

Good picks:

-2005-

Aaron Rodgers

Nick Collins

Brady Popinga

Mike Montgomery

-2006-

AJ Hawk

Daryn Colledge

Greg Jennings

Jason Spits

Will Blackmon

Johnny Jolly

-2007-

Brandon Jackson

James Jones

David Clowney - stolen from practice squad by Jets

Korey Hall

Desmond Bishop

Mason Crosby

-2008-

Jordy Nelson

Jermichael Finley

Josh Sitton

Matt Flynn

-2009-

BJ Raji

Clay Mathews

TJ Lang

Quinn Johnson

Brad Jones

Bad picks:

-2005-

Terrence Murphy

Marviel Underwood

R-Kal Truluck

Craig Bragg

Kurt Campbell

Will Whitticker

-2006-

Abdul Hodge

Cory Rodgers

Ingle Martin

Tony Moll

Tyrone Culver

Dave Tollefson

-2007-

Justin Harrell

Aaron Rouse

Allen Barbre

DeShawn Wynn

Clark Harris

-2008-

Brian Brohm

Jeremy Thompson

Breno Giacomini - hasn't done much but could still produce

Brett Swain

-2009-

Jurius Wynn

Too Soon To Tell

-2009-

Jamon Meredith - plucked by Bills but was a OL prospect

Brandon Underwood

-2010-

Bryan Bulaga - looking great

Morgan Burnett - is a starter

Mike Neal

Andrew Quarless

Marshall Newhouse

James Starks

CJ Wilson

This comes from a much larger, nerdy spreadsheet that I've maintained over the years, but here is how the various GM's breakdown:

1980-91 Various GMs: 31% drafting success rate

1992-01 Ron Wolf: 50% drafting success rate

2002-04 Mike Sherman: 35% drafting success rate

2005-09 Ted Thompson: 56% drafting success rate

Mike Sherman's teams benefited from Ron Wolf's drafting talent until Wolf retired. Then Sherman went on to draft miserably, including drafting only 3! linemen during his time, only one of which became a starter. That ultimately led to his doom and the Packer's as well. Thompson has performed slightly better than Ron Wolf's high water mark but, as you correctly pointed out Solbes, the proof is in the pudding.

However, in contrast to the Vikings and the way they ran Denny Green out of town, I'm content to have a good team that is competitive every year. It would be nice to win the title but I'd much rather have consistently good teams than a title one year and nothing the rest.

[CJH]

He wasn't afraid to make the tough decision on Favre & Kampman, which you have to respect his pair, if nothing else as they both were fan favorites. He's built good depth and a pretty solid team top to bottom.

On top of the guys mentioned, don't forget he drafted Collins, Jennings, Spitz, Coledge, traded for Grant, signed Picket & Chillar, and there are more. So he's drafted 4 probowlers and signed one more. Not bad. Finley, Raji, Spitz, Bulaga have the potential to get there as well.

We all wish he would sign another Woodson caliber player, but I do like that he signs/keeps his good players + maintains a healthy payroll. Overall I think he has done a good job and if people really are objective I think they would agree.

That being said, he has one NFC Championship game under his belt, he needs to get us to more and make a run at the SuperBowl at some point.

[CJH]

This comes from a much larger, nerdy spreadsheet that I've maintained over the years, but here is how the various GM's breakdown:

1980-91 Various GMs: 31% drafting success rate

1992-01 Ron Wolf: 50% drafting success rate

2002-04 Mike Sherman: 35% drafting success rate

2005-09 Ted Thompson: 56% drafting success rate

I believe hitting on 1/3 is considered the norm for the NFL. Not at all surprised Wolf and TT (who worked for Wolf) are above average.

[mrklean]

I forgot about kampman, i think when they went to 3-4 which was a great move he had no chance, he hated it and wanted out, just would have been nice to maybe try and trade him for something, but really no biggie losing Kampman

[SkunkedAgain]

I have had a few good email exchanges with some Packer beat writers over the years. A year or two ago, one of them pointed out to me that the real difference between Ron Wolf and TT was that Wolf was able to smartly fill any drafting gaps with free agency. TT is very wary of making free agency moves. The outward projection is that it's a philosophical position but it could also just be out of fear of making the big mistake.

I kind of agree on this point. I think that you build through the draft and hold off on the free agents until you are right on the verge, then make a splash or two with a Reggie White-type of signing to get you over the hump. As I stated before though, I'm pretty content with his way of doing it. As long as I am happy at least ten Sundays per season, I'm cool.

[Coach1310]

I think he has done just fine... and as Vikes fan, it hurts to say that. I can't the franchise a TON of credit for Rodgers because he fell in their lap.... it was no great accomplishment, but the ability they had to let him sit and learn and not throw him to the wolves right away was a key if you ask me. The McCarthy selection looks to be a big win.... pulling a guy from no where who is getting it done. I want to see him get his team prepared and ready in NFC Championship or Superbowl type game....... something that separates the "good" coaches from the "great" ones in my opinion..... they are in better shape now and going forward than the Vikes are...

[CJH]

I can't the franchise a TON of credit for Rodgers because he fell in their lap.... it was no great accomplishment, but the ability they had to let him sit and learn and not throw him to the wolves right away was a key if you ask me.

[SkunkedAgain]

It's funny if you look back through the Favre-Packer history at all of the QBs that they drafted and eventually let go. Matt Hasselbeck, Ty Detmer, Mark Brunnel, and Aaron Brooks are the top ones on my mind.

CJH makes a great point. From what I see, the Packers never drafted a QB higher than the fourth round (Aaron Brooks) during Favre's tenure. Then TT steps into the room and BAM, they select a QB in the first round. That had to hurt Favre's ego. I hadn't considered it that way.

[james_walleye]

Will this sentiment hold after the bears beat the pack this week?

[CJH]

CJH makes a great point. From what I see, the Packers never drafted a QB higher than the fourth round (Aaron Brooks) during Favre's tenure. Then TT steps into the room and BAM, they select a QB in the first round. That had to hurt Favre's ego. I hadn't considered it that way.

It is crazy all the QB's they had. Wolf was very good at picking QB's, developed them, and then traded them off for more than what it cost them. That's where he excelled.

Favre had his way with Sherman. Sherman did whatever Favre wanted. TT could care less what Favre wanted, he was going to do the best thing for the team in the long run, regardless of what anyone thought. The combination of the drafting of A-Rod and then not signing Randy Moss sent Favre off the deep end. He didn't like being put in his place.

[zepman]

The Packers drafted Rodgers when Favre was in his mid-thirties...when were they supposed to draft his eventual replacement? The Rodgers pick fell in their lap and they were smart enough to take him...at the exact right time. It was a no-brainer.

Vikings had the same exact chance this year with Clausen IMO...they passed and they will regret this one for years.