Playoffs

[nolte]

That's an old wives tale. Here is reality.

Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, there have been 18 times when a team went into a playoff game with a chance to complete a three-game season sweep, according to STATS, Inc. Those teams are 11-7.

I don't know but that stat shows me that there is a pretty decent chance for an upset and thus no sweep. If you gave me nearly a 40% chance of an upset (which most likely would be on the road), I'd probably take those odds.

[Big Dave2]

It shows me that there is an over 60% chance the other way. I guess I'll take THOSE odds.

[Big Dave2]

Ohhhhh, I get it now. You guys only deal in reality when it suits you.

Hmmph. Interesting.

What else is interesting is that statistics are pulled out (from a company called STATS no less) to squash an "old wives tale", yet on the other thread where rankings are posted based on stats they are dismissed and called hogwash.

Again, interesting....

The difference between your stats and mine is that I am using mine to dispell an outright myth. It is not hard to beat a team 3 times in the NFL, let alone other professional sports as the original poster put it.

Did I say that this is proof positive that the Vikes will beat the packers again should they meet in the playoffs? Of course not. I made no such claim because we don't know for sure yet do we.

On the other hand, you are using your litle chart thingy to try and drive home the point of what team is really better than another. We don't know yet what team is the best, all the games have not been played.

Therefore your stats can be thrown out the window because in the end they may not prove your theory. My stats on the other hand have perfectly proven my theory, it is not that hard to beat a team 3 times in the NFL.

[PierBridge]

I was suprised also how tough it is to beat someone 3 times in a year. You would think it would be almost a sure thing to roll a team the 3rd time after beating them twice already.

Other then your recent stats post Dave you are still on a roll!

I'm changing my pick from the Pack to the Cardinals thanks to Daves stats which confirm how difficult it is to beat a team 3 times...

[Big Dave2]

I was suprised also how tough it is to beat someone 3 times in a year. You would think it would be almost a sure thing to roll a team the 3rd time after beating them twice already.

Other then your recent stats post Dave you are still on a roll!

I'm changing my pick from the Pack to the Cardinals thanks to Daves stats which confirm how difficult it is to beat a team 3 times...

How do you figure it is difficult to beat a team 3 times in a season when it has happened over 60% of the time?

[Juneau4]

Originally Posted By: PierBridge

I was suprised also how tough it is to beat someone 3 times in a year. You would think it would be almost a sure thing to roll a team the 3rd time after beating them twice already.

Other then your recent stats post Dave you are still on a roll!

I'm changing my pick from the Pack to the Cardinals thanks to Daves stats which confirm how difficult it is to beat a team 3 times...

How do you figure it is difficult to beat a team 3 times in a season when it has happened over 60% of the time?

It's the other 40% that messes things up.

[Big Dave2]

Since when is any team a 100% favorite over any other team? I would say 60% is pretty darn good in the NFL.

[zamboni]

Kinda like the Steelers VS the Chie, the Rai...... Nevermind

(trying to type a Common Man bit doesn't work that good)

[Big Dave2]

I always

I always

I always.....................................

[nolte]

It shows me that there is an over 60% chance the other way. I guess I'll take THOSE odds.

I'm pretty sure you are missing my point. The home team wins in the NFL roughly 60% of the time. For there to be a 3rd game, the team with the 2-0 record would almost have to be the HOME team. So by your stats, roughly same odds.

To take it a step further, if a team has a 2-0 record vs another team they will most likely be favored in the game. I only had time to look up the first 4 weeks, but the results were this. An underdog team on the road only won 28% of the time. In YOUR example the underdog road team won 39% of the time.

In this small sample size, it would demonstrate that an upset is about 11% more likely than normal. Now you could argue that for a team to play twice they would have to be in the same division and probably have a heated rivalry. You could also say that to get to the 3rd game that both teams would have to be pretty good because they would be in the playoffs. In doing a little more digging, I found that a road playoff team only won about 33% of the time. So still worse than the 39%.

In any case this makes for intersting (but probably meaningless) conversation.

[PierBridge]

In a nutshell if teams that were 36-0 heading into the playoffs against teams that were 0-36 and the teams that were 0-36 win 40 percent of the time thats BAD and I want no part of it.

Pretty simple math Dave.

Again, thanks although unintended on your part, for clarifying how bad it is to play teams that you were 36-0 previously against.

LOL>