Hey, it could happen!

[Big Dave2]

There is a difference. Those things you mentioned were projections and what I posted is a statistical analysis based on real season stats up to, but not including, week #11.

And I don't believe it was the same "computer", as you call it.

Did your statistical analysis determine that KC would beat Pittsburgh? Did it Predict that Oakland would beat Philly or Cincy?

[james_walleye]

You're still missing the point. The data posted above is the probability of a team beating a league average team at a neutral site.

It's a way of normalizing the data in an attempt to illustrate which team is a better team, instead of just looking at a teams overall record and saying they're best or worst just because the number in the W or L column says so. It takes the offensive and defensive data accumulated by each team up to this point, looks at the SOS of the team's they've played, and spits out a probability of how they stack up against each other.

This way you don't look at, say, Minnesota and see their 9-1 record and think they're one of the best teams, when in reality they've played cupcakes which has inflated their record. Same is said about the opposite where a team has a poor record but they may have played some better teams so their record doesn't reflect the team they maybe really are. That's why SOS is a part of this analysis.

Im not missing any point. Its a friggin computer. The same criteria is put into BCS computers. Iowa undefeated 2 weeks ago had played a tougher schedule than the undefeated Florida Gators. Did you think at the time Iowa was better than Florida?? There is a reason the polls play the roll they do in the BCS. If the season would have ended 2 weeks ago the computers would have had Iowa in the national championship game.

[LMITOUT]

If it said that, Vegas would be shut down.

[Big Dave2]

How about we break out this little chart.

2009 Power Rankings: Week 12

RK (LW) TEAM REC COMMENT

1 (1) Saints 10-0-0 The Saints are averaging 36.9 points per game, more than the Raiders (10.8), Rams (11.3) and Browns (11.5) combined. (Sando)

2 (2) Colts 10-0-0 Even when the Colts don't play particularly well, opponents haven't seized opportunities. (Kuharsky)

3 (3) Vikings 9-1-0 Brett Favre appears to be the front-runner for MVP. (Chadiha)

4 (5) Patriots 7-3-0 Bill Belichick gets a chance to play spoiler on Monday as his Patriots try to end the Saints' bid for a perfect season. (Clayton)

5 (7) Cardinals 7-3-0 Getting Kurt Warner healthy has to be the top priority, particularly now that Arizona has a three-game lead in the division. (Sando)

6 (8) Chargers 7-3-0 Better to struggle early and settle in late than vice versa. (Kuharsky)

7 (4) Bengals 7-3-0 A loss in Oakland? Nobody saw that one coming. (Chadiha)

8 (10) Cowboys 7-3-0 Despite major problems on third down against the Redskins, the Cowboys did enough to win and keep their division lead. (Clayton)

9 (6) Steelers 6-4-0 Their loss to Kansas City proves the Steelers often play down to the competition. (Chadiha)

10 (12) Eagles 6-4-0 Finally, Donovan McNabb wins a close game. Maybe he's not the second-worst closer in Philadelphia sports. (Clayton)

11 (16) Giants 6-4-0 The bye week gave the Giants a chance to refocus and end their four-game losing streak by beating the Falcons. (Clayton)

12 (15) Packers 6-4-0 Aaron Rodgers is having a Pro Bowl year. (Chadiha)

13 (9) Broncos 6-4-0 Remember when things were going very well early and all the doubters said how things would turn? (Kuharsky)

14 (17) Jaguars 6-4-0 Their last trip west was a disaster (41-0 loss at Seattle), so we'll see if the Jags have discovered road legs when visiting the 49ers. (Kuharsky)

15 (11) Ravens 5-5-0 Three of the Ravens' five losses were by three points or less. Now comes Pittsburgh. (Chadiha)

16 (14) Falcons 5-5-0 There were positives for Matt Ryan and the Falcons despite their excruciating loss to the Giants. (Sando)

17 (18) Dolphins 5-5-0 Recent losses of Jason Ferguson and Ronnie Brown to injury won't help the Dolphins' late playoff run. (Clayton)

18 (13) Texans 5-5-0 Now mired in third place in the AFC South, the Texans are becoming masters at finding ways to lose. (Kuharsky)

19 (22) Titans 4-6-0 Vince Young increasingly appears to be an answer, not a question. (Kuharsky)

20 (19) 49ers 4-6-0 Alex Smith has shown he can throw touchdown passes when his team is trailing by a wide margin. He needs to start faster. (Sando)

21 (20) Panthers 4-6-0 They are averaging 200 yards rushing per game over their past six, but it's 2009 and this is a passing league. (Sando)

22 (21) Jets 4-6-0 Rex Ryan, a defensive master, is turning his attention to the offense to reduce Mark Sanchez's interceptions. (Clayton)

23 (23) Bears 4-6-0 The Bears have dropped five of their past six games. (Chadiha)

24 (24) Redskins 3-7-0 One more running back injury and Dan Snyder might have to sign John Riggins to play running back. (Clayton)

25 (25) Seahawks 3-7-0 Stepping down in competition from the Vikings to the banged-up Rams should help the Seahawks stop the bleeding temporarily. (Sando)

26 (27) Chiefs 3-7-0 They hope to look back at the win over the Steelers as a catalyst. (Kuharsky)

27 (26) Bills 3-7-0 Unemployed head coaches with Super Bowl rings can cash in for $10 million a year in Buffalo. (Clayton)

28 (28) Raiders 3-7-0 Is the Bruce Gradkowski era officially under way? (Kuharsky)

29 (31) Lions 2-8-0 Matt Stafford must wish he could play Cleveland every week. (Chadiha)

30 (29) Buccaneers 1-9-0 Firing the defensive coordinator with six games remaining isn't going to fix the Bucs' talent problems. (Sando)

31 (30) Rams 1-9-0 Marc Bulger's injury situation ramps up talk in St. Louis about the need to find the next franchise quarterback. (Sando)

32 (32) Browns 1-9-0 The loss at Detroit marked another defeat, but the Browns' offense at least showed a pulse. (Chadiha)

[LMITOUT]

Im not missing any point. Its a friggin computer. The same criteria is put into BCS computers. Iowa undefeated 2 weeks ago had played a tougher schedule than the undefeated Florida Gators. Did you think at the time Iowa was better than Florida?? There is a reason the polls play the roll they do in the BCS. If the season would have ended 2 weeks ago the computers would have had Iowa in the national championship game.

Can you tell me what data is used in the BCS analysis? I bet you can't.

You can dispute the data all day long and deny what it says, but the math never lies and it proves exactly what I've been saying when I asked the Vikings to win a game that matters and then get back to me. It shows that they haven't played games of any importance and could quite possibly be heading for a disappointment when they play a game that DOES matter.

Right now Vikings fans are over-invested in "HOPE" and are living week to week by the "any given Sunday" mantra, HOPING their mediocre team gets the win.

[james_walleye]

Come on Dave, people can't see reality. Its all about the computers LOL

[Big Dave2]

If it said that Vegas would be shut down.

So.....in other words, you are admitting that it means absolutely nothing.

[zamboni]

That computer printout lists Dallas #2 in offensive ranking. The same Dallas that has almost been shutout now 2 weeks in a row.

Ever seen the movie "Major League"? When Lou Brown throws Dorns contract on the ground and relieves himself on it? I would do that on that as well.

[james_walleye]

Originally Posted By: james_walleye

Im not missing any point. Its a friggin computer. The same criteria is put into BCS computers. Iowa undefeated 2 weeks ago had played a tougher schedule than the undefeated Florida Gators. Did you think at the time Iowa was better than Florida?? There is a reason the polls play the roll they do in the BCS. If the season would have ended 2 weeks ago the computers would have had Iowa in the national championship game.

Can you tell me what data is used in the BCS analysis? I bet you can't.

You can dispute the data all day long and deny what it says, but the math never lies and it proves exactly what I've been saying when I asked the Vikings to win a game that matters and then get back to me. It shows that they haven't played games of any importance and could quite possibly be heading for a disappointment when they play a game that DOES matter.

Pretty sure strength of schedule and margin of victory are a big part of the computer analysis, which is half of the criteria, with polls making up the other half....are they not? Its an analysis of what has happened so far this season, just as your little post is.....

Math doesnt lie, then you agree that as of 2 weeks ago the BCS computers were right? Iowa was the #1 team in the country? If math didnt lie, then the NCAA would let the computers dictate 100% who played in the title game.

[LMITOUT]

That computer printout lists Dallas #2 in offensive ranking. The same Dallas that has almost been shutout now 2 weeks in a row.

No it doesn't. It's labeled as ORank and DRank but that's not what the numbers are indicating. Read above.

[LMITOUT]

Originally Posted By: LMITOUT

If it said that Vegas would be shut down.

So.....in other words, you are admitting that it means absolutely nothing.

No. It's called probabilities.

[Big Dave2]

Originally Posted By: james_walleye

Im not missing any point. Its a friggin computer. The same criteria is put into BCS computers. Iowa undefeated 2 weeks ago had played a tougher schedule than the undefeated Florida Gators. Did you think at the time Iowa was better than Florida?? There is a reason the polls play the roll they do in the BCS. If the season would have ended 2 weeks ago the computers would have had Iowa in the national championship game.

You can dispute the data all day long and deny what it says, but the math never lies

Didn't the above statement from JW prove that the math indeed DOES lie?

[LMITOUT]

Pretty sure strength of schedule and margin of victory are a big part of the computer analysis, which is half of the criteria, with polls making up the other half....are they not?

Pretty sure? Or really sure?

[james_walleye]

Originally Posted By: james_walleye

Pretty sure strength of schedule and margin of victory are a big part of the computer analysis, which is half of the criteria, with polls making up the other half....are they not?

Pretty sure? Or really sure?

You know darn well it is.....

[Big Dave2]

Originally Posted By: Big Dave2

So.....in other words, you are admitting that it means absolutely nothing.

No. It's called probabilities.

My computing says that the "probability" of your chart being a bunch of irrelevant [PoorWordUsage] is VERY HIGH!

[LMITOUT]

Computer Average: The BCS used six ranking systems, with the New York Times opting not to participate. In the calculation, the highest and lowest ranking for each team are dropped. Then, it will give a team 25 points for a Number 1 ranking in an individual system, 24 points for Number 2, and so on down to 1 point. Each team's set of numbers is then added, conveniently making the number compatible with the percentages from the two polls. To address concerns about loss of the schedule strength factor, the description of the computer rankings explicitly included schedule strength as a consideration.

Well what do you know James, you were completely wrong, and the BCS ranking system is completely different than the number system I posted earlier, with completely different purposes and use completely different data.

Is that completely clear?

Oh, and here are the other two items used in the final BCS ranking calculations just for completeness:

AP Poll: A team's AP Poll number is the percentage of the possible points it could receive in the poll. As an example, in the final regular-season poll of 2003, LSU received a total of 1,580 out of a possible 1,625 points from the voters, giving them an AP Poll percentage of 97.2.

Coaches' Poll: This is calculated in the same manner as the AP Poll number. For LSU, their final regular-season number in this poll would have been 99.4 (1,516 out of 1,525 possible points).

[james_walleye]

Computer Average: The BCS used six ranking systems, with the New York Times opting not to participate. In the calculation, the highest and lowest ranking for each team are dropped. Then, it will give a team 25 points for a Number 1 ranking in an individual system, 24 points for Number 2, and so on down to 1 point. Each team's set of numbers is then added, conveniently making the number compatible with the percentages from the two polls. To address concerns about loss of the schedule strength factor, the description of the computer rankings explicitly included schedule strength as a consideration.

Well what do you know James, you were completely wrong, and the BCS ranking system is completely different than the number system I posted earlier, with completely different purposes and use completely different data.

Is that completely clear?

Oh, and here are the other two items used in the final ranking:

AP Poll: A team's AP Poll number is the percentage of the possible points it could receive in the poll. As an example, in the final regular-season poll of 2003, LSU received a total of 1,580 out of a possible 1,625 points from the voters, giving them an AP Poll percentage of 97.2.

Coaches' Poll: This is calculated in the same manner as the AP Poll number. For LSU, their final regular-season number in this poll would have been 99.4 (1,516 out of 1,525 possible points).

Maybe you better do a bit better research into how each of the 6 computer rankings gets its rankings. The computer can't "think" on its own. It has to have numbers inputted. The only thing i was wrong on is that it doesnt take margin of victory into account. Strength of schedule absolutely is inputted.

[LMITOUT]

No, it's not that difficult to understand.

[james_walleye]

No, it's not that difficult to understand.

You are right it isnt. There is a reason computers arent allowed to solely pick who plays in the NCAA national championship. Its the same reason that makes your little "analysis" hold very little water. No one in their right mind would say the vikings arent one of the top 10 teams in the NFL.

[LMITOUT]

Whatever you say.

[james_walleye]

Whatever you say.

You said "math doesnt lie". BCS computer rankings are math and 2 weeks ago they had Iowa ranked #1 when the AP and coaches poll had them about #6. Pretty sure the math lied.

[LMITOUT]

STOP THE PRESSES!!!!!!!

A new list has just been released which now includes week #10. The Vikings have moved up to #9 on the list after that "impressive" win over the Seahawks this past weekend. (Well, actually it's because Denver and Cincy both lost and had horrible games, but saying it's because they beat the Seahawks makes Vikings fans feel better about themselves). James can sleep easier now knowing that his beloved Vikings have indeed cracked the top 10.

[LMITOUT]

Originally Posted By: LMITOUT

Whatever you say.

You said "math doesnt lie". BCS computer rankings are math and 2 weeks ago they had Iowa ranked #1 when the AP and coaches poll had them about #6. Pretty sure the math lied.

Once again, the BCS is used for a totally different purpose.

[croixflats]

Originally Posted By: LMITOUT

Alright, I didn't want to break out this little chart to crush your little heart, but here it is. (Updated prior to week #11).

Enjoy!

The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates.

My eyes! My eyes! to many numbers to decipher. Worst than than looking at the honey do list. Yes dear I'll do that next. No dear I'll do it before I go fishing but first I have to go to the hardware store. What? the boat is on the truck well I cant get it off the hitch and the car is in front of the truck.

What no acknowledgement for that. Honestly he makes a lot of sense if one really goes back and See's these mistakes that takes our rating down you can see a major weakness.

[BrdHunter01]

Look what you started Steve This may continue until the Vikes win the superbowl