Luckiest Teams in the NFL (updated)

[Windy City]

Fishy,

Back handed, sarcasm laden compliment? I hate it when guys do that, don't you? LOL

Windy

[UdeLakeTom]

Windy...haven't you ever heard the term..."sarcasm is wasted on women and children under 18".

[LMITOUT]

Luckiest Teams for the 2008 Regular Season

Rank Team Exp. W Act. W Luck Div

1 TEN 10.5 13 +2.5 AS

2 NE 8.9 11 +2.1 AE

3 NYJ 7.0 9 +2.0 AE

4 SF 5.2 7 +1.8 NW

5 BUF 5.3 7 +1.7 AE

6 MIN 8.4 10 +1.6 NN

7 IND 10.6 12 +1.4 AS

8 NYG 11.0 12 +1.0 NE

9 HOU 7.0 8 +1.0 AS

10 CLE 3.1 4 +0.9 AN

11 MIA 10.1 11 +0.9 AE

12 ARI 8.2 9 +0.8 NW

13 DEN 7.5 8 +0.5 AW

14 BAL 10.5 11 +0.5 AN

15 PIT 11.9 12 +0.1 AN

16 JAX 4.9 5 0.1 AS

17 CHI 9.0 9 0.0 NN

18 OAK 5.1 5 -0.1 AW

19 TB 9.1 9 -0.1 NS

20 CIN 4.7 4.5 -0.2 AN

21 DAL 9.3 9 -0.3 NE

22 CAR 12.5 12 -0.5 NS

23 ATL 11.5 11 -0.5 NS

24 SEA 4.5 4 -0.5 NW

25 STL 2.8 2 -0.8 NW

26 DET 1.8 0 -1.8 NN

27 WAS 10.0 8 -2.0 NE

28 GB 8.5 6 -2.5 NN

29 PHI 12.1 9.5 -2.6 NE

30 NO 10.7 8 -2.7 NS

31 KC 4.9 2 -2.9 AW

32 SD 11.4 8 -3.4 AW

[james_walleye]

LOL, as if TN didnt create a lot of luck, please. What a lame post.

[CrappiesNCats]

Limit,

Don't let them rattle you, man. They are just really nervous. There is this big Green machine that is going to be rumbling into Twinkie town this week and all the Queens fans are watching out overhead as the Eagle soars in for the kill!

That was a great stat you found, no matter what any nervous Queens fans say! Eagles by 21 points!

Windy

watch out! the same eagles team scored 7 on washington and couldnt beat cincinnati....be afraid!

[CrappiesNCats]

also this is a completely made up stat that has no relevance and is impossible to calculate.

chicago is WAY to low on the list to be a legit stat. half the games they won were based on freak special teams plays.

[LMITOUT]

LOL, as if TN didnt create a lot of luck, please. What a lame post.

As always, thanks for your input Jimmy.

If you don't understand it, don't comment on it.

[FISHINGURU]

well i'm glad philly is one of the unluckiest teams according to the chart lol.

[james_walleye]

The only thing that needs to be understood is how worthless a stat this is and that its just a typical post by you trying to throw the vikings under the bus.

Come on now, how bout you tell us again how the vikings will get beat by 31 points. And lets not try and pretend that if the eagles were somehow traveling to 6-10 GB that GB wouldnt be the prohibited favortite in your eyes.

[norwall]

The 8-8 SD Chargers are pretty lucky in my opinion.Making the playofffs while 11-5 NE didnot

[LMITOUT]

Paranoia setting in again James?

Once again, this has nothing to do with the Vikings and I have made no connection or reference to them or any team for that matter with these stats in this thread.

[james_walleye]

Yeah i know it doesnt, LOL, none of your posts do.....

[Juneau4]

Luckiest Teams for the 2008 Regular Season

Rank Team Exp. W Act. W Luck Div

1 TEN 10.5 13 +2.5 AS

2 NE 8.9 11 +2.1 AE

3 NYJ 7.0 9 +2.0 AE

4 SF 5.2 7 +1.8 NW

5 BUF 5.3 7 +1.7 AE

6 MIN 8.4 10 +1.6 NN

7 IND 10.6 12 +1.4 AS

8 NYG 11.0 12 +1.0 NE

9 HOU 7.0 8 +1.0 AS

10 CLE 3.1 4 +0.9 AN

11 MIA 10.1 11 +0.9 AE

12 ARI 8.2 9 +0.8 NW

13 DEN 7.5 8 +0.5 AW

14 BAL 10.5 11 +0.5 AN

15 PIT 11.9 12 +0.1 AN

16 JAX 4.9 5 0.1 AS

17 CHI 9.0 9 0.0 NN

18 OAK 5.1 5 -0.1 AW

19 TB 9.1 9 -0.1 NS

20 CIN 4.7 4.5 -0.2 AN

21 DAL 9.3 9 -0.3 NE

22 CAR 12.5 12 -0.5 NS

23 ATL 11.5 11 -0.5 NS

24 SEA 4.5 4 -0.5 NW

25 STL 2.8 2 -0.8 NW

26 DET 1.8 0 -1.8 NN

27 WAS 10.0 8 -2.0 NE

28 GB 8.5 6 -2.5 NN

29 PHI 12.1 9.5 -2.6 NE

30 NO 10.7 8 -2.7 NS

31 KC 4.9 2 -2.9 AW

32 SD 11.4 8 -3.4 AW

Whats the old saying? Numbers lie and liers figure and you can find statistics about anything.

[Scott M]

It's an interesting calculation if you go back and read the numbers. Here's the short explanation:

"This is one of my most fun stats--"team luck"--and last year it got plenty of criticism. I estimate team luck by using my efficiency regression model to calculate each team's expected wins--how many wins a team can normally expect, on average, given their actual performance in offensive and defensive running, passing, turnovers, and penalties. The difference between the expected wins and actual wins is what I loosely call team luck.

There are plenty of things my model does not consider, special teams being the most prominent. But special teams plays are the most random events in the sport, save for the coin flip. Luck is a punt that lands on the 5 and skids into the end zone for touchback instead of bouncing into the air and being downed at the 1. A kick or punt return for a touchdown certainly requires skill, but when the kick return (or missed field goal or anything else) occurs means everything.

A kick return when a team is already ahead by 20 points doesn't mean much, but when a team is behind by 3 in the 4th quarter, it means the game. Teams and players can't control when those events occur, or else they'd save them up for when they matter most. So in a very substantial way, they are luck, at least when it comes to deciding game outcomes."

Makes a lot of sense in a way. The Vikes won some close games that they should have lost. I mean, they should have lost to Detroit at home and at New Orleans on account of those pass interference calls, that alone accounts for the couple wins more than what they would have been projected for. It's part of the game, teams need lucky bounces. Don't take it so personal guys It's great discussion fodder.

What LMITOUT neglected to mention was that Green Bay was the #1 luckiest team according to the models in 2007

[FISHINGURU]

teams also lose games by bad luck and bad calls just as much as they win by good luck and good calls...i say it evens out in the end.