ICE-rule of thumb

[Aqua Eye]

With the temps we are having lately (single digit highs and minus digit lows) does anyone have any ideas or formulas,even educated guesses as to how much ice can form in a 24 hour period. If the current conditions hang around through the end of the year I'm guessing I could spend new years eve fishing out of my new " BIG " house. Is it unrealistic to expect this kind of ice in the central Mn area by then? I don't think the latest snowfall did much to hurt the ice-making process.What do you think? Under the current conditions I would expect the area lakes to be adding 1-2 inches a day but I'm no expert. Of course I'm not towing my 14 footer out until I can do it relatively safely. Any thoughts?-TROY

[tigger101754]

Just a little fyi...Here in the southern suburbs of the Twin Cities we have about 2-4 inches on the lakes. As far as a formula, sorry do'nt have a clue. I can tell you though that Saturday night we only had a inch on Lake Marion here in Lakeville and today it measured 2-4 inches out from shore for quite a ways. Good Luck and stay safe!!!

[Guest]

No formulas....Not possible...Take water clarity, depth, currents, snow cover, wind, bottom content......all variables....Bring a chisel....

[Valv]

Aqua Eye, I would NEVER rely on formulas to calculate ice thickness.

I am 40 miles south of Mpls, 2 days ago i tried the chisel (long crowbar, whatever you want to call it) and it went though just in front of me, yesterday I had 4 inches, today
they were driving 4 wheelers on it.

I'd rather be safe than sorry, but you want to put your life jacket on, some ice picks to pull you out, not much weight, a long chisel (thumping bar, whatever...) and be careful.

But DO NOT RELY on formulas.

That's my 2 cents.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS.....(maybe I had too much "leaded" eggnog)...

Val

[Hubcat]

Just for information

There was a lot of open water on lake Washington (Lesueur county) this morning around 11:00am both in Bakers Bay and by the north access. So even if you think you have good ice check it closely. With the rain and wet snow last week I think the ice has not had a chance to form very well.
I can't think of anything worst than to hear of a fellow angler going thru the ice.
We built a nice big house 8 x 12, so I know what you are going thru.

Be safe
Bob

[BradB]

I tried to answer this question myself from a scientific perspective. I contacted a ice scientist to see if there were any formulas or basic studies.

The short answer was that there are just too many variables. Hundreds. It would be nice to say that X inches form in Y time when the conditions are essentially Z, but unfortunately it isn't that easy.

Brad

[Aqua Eye]

Thanks guys for the quick responses. I feel it goes without saying that I value safety at the top of the list but maybe I need to say it another way,...I will NEVER,EVER be the first guy to pull his permanent shack out on the ice.
I have seen those little cards which show approximate "good ice" thickness for supposedly safe ice travel and I was just wondering if anyone had seen something similar for ice formulation. I too felt that there are just to many variables but you guys have to admit that this weather is mighty fine ice makeing stuff,...i.e. clear,cold,very little wind. It's great!! No need to chastise me publicly here because I really have no intention of seeing what a frozen lake looks like from under the ice. The very thought of it gives me the chills! - Hubcat-you're right you DO understand. Thanks again guys-TROY

[This message has been edited by Aqua Eye (edited 12-25-2001).]

[BLACKJACK]

I fished a spot last night that was open water a week ago and it had 4 inches of ice last night. Good and solid, but with the wind blowing the ice was cracking and groaning. I had one crack go right thru one of my holes. Gets you thinking!! I had to keep telling myself "You've been sitting here since 3, its been fine, if I was pheasant hunting on a slough with 4 inches of ice I'd be doing a jig". I was glad that I had the moonlight to for light on the way back!

[Ybone]

Snow on top of the ice slows ice formation quite a bit. The lake I'm on froze about a week ago and made about an inch of ice per day for the 1st 2 days when temps were about 10-15 degrees at night and 1/2 an inch the 3rd night when temps only dropped to the mid 20s. Then the snow came and even though the temps dropped to the single digits, only about 1/4 inch per day has been added.

[Aqua Eye]

Ybone- How much snow did your area get? Here in the St.Cloud region we received about 3" of very light fluffy stuff. That's about all that I have seen around here besides the dusting we received last night. The reports on the lakes I'm watching have gone from open water last week/2 inches over the weekend/4-5 inches and some cases more as of tonight. Mother nature,old man winter,and father time sure have their own way of doing things huh? Ain't it cool!?!? Help keep us informed---TROY

[Ybone]

Aqua Eye- About 5 inches of snow fell north of Brainerd. We finally decided to walk out today on 3 1/4 inches[we measured it with a ruler] of ice and do some fishing. Some of the smaller lakes have more ice, 7 inches or so.