One way of predicting the morels

[south_metro_fish]

I was on another site and some one brought up this study that watches degree days using a model that uses a 32 F base not 50 F or 65 F. I guess it predicts morels to be popping around 1000 DD.

The study was:

Spatial and temporal patterns of morel fruiting

Mycological Research, Volume 111, Issue 3, March 2007, Pages 339-346

Jeanne D. Mihail, Johann N. Bruhn, Pierluigi Bonello

So I found a site that maps out DD with a 32 F base: http://uspest.org/US/

After looking at different reports from different states this year and comparing locations with the maps it seems that the grays are just starting to pop around 800 DD and the grays and yellows are getting going pretty good around 1000 DD this year. Never followed it before and other people were talking about watching it in the past, and it sounds like it can very year to year by other factors. From what I have found so far this year it seems pretty accurate in the 800-1000 DD.

With the reports I have found I am predicting that southern MN should have the grays popping in 2-3 weeks in southern MN and hopefully 3-4 up here in the metro. I am going to keep an eye on this, this year and I will report my findings as I come across them.

[woodybox2002]

Let me know what your findings are CshroomJ.

[south_metro_fish]

LOL

[Papa Grump]

Interesting read..but it makes alot of sense. Last year the shrooms where early as we had a early spring. Either way once the asparagus starts up , a couple days later it's time to hunt shrooms, at least for me it is

[south_metro_fish]

Well after a week of watching their progression, they haven't progressed much at all with these cold temps. In fact from watching the DD map I see that some of Iowa has actually lost some DD temp. They still seem to be finding some grays in southern Iowa, but it seemed to slow down a bit as the week went on. They are finding them pretty good in Missouri now but they even had some DD drop and increase as the week went on. I think this week put us back a week but this might be good. I have read people talking about how years with cooler temps with lots of rain have produced excellent seasons in the past and it seems we are looking pretty good so far this year. Hopefully this next week with no snow and temps in the 50s and 60s will move the line a little closer to us, and this rain is perfect to keep that soil moist.

Also DD is not the only thing to watch there are lots of other things to watch like lilacs and such but I have so far found DD to be an interesting long rang forecast for watching the line progress north.

[croixeyes]

I have a bad feeling about the length of the season this year.Im kind of thinking that its gonna go from a slow start to spring,and then jump into summer temps.As long as we have some good moisture,we should be in business for a bit.

[south_metro_fish]

This screwy spring seems to be messing with the morels this year and trying to prove that nothing is going to for sure predict these mysterious shrooms. Looking at some reports it seems that some people might be just starting to find some in far southern MN. DD is still 400 D short of the predicted gray popping DD. The soil temp is almost in the mid 40's in southern MN so that might be something to watch closer. It wont be long now and we will be eating shrooms.

[dberl09]

found about 30 today, mankato area, all about fingernail size though

[south_metro_fish]

The ground temps and DD are not here yet and all the natural signs are not here yet. Looking at some maps I would expect southern Iowa to finally get going pretty good in the next couple of days as long as it doesn't cool down too much. The ground temps are in the lower 50s and the DD is almost at 1000. After yesterday we are finally seeing some ground temps in southern MN that are around the mid 40s that seem to be high enough to pop some grays and DD around 500 and 600. We still have a ways to go but I think these warmer temps might finally be moving the line a little farther north. Hope it keeps this up.

[south_metro_fish]

Well nothing is at the temp that I have been looking for but the blacks are up. The soil temp is at least getting close to 40 so that might just be the ticket with all this nice sun finally. I have seen reports as far as Bemidji for finding blacks and grays down south. I am going to go fishing today and morel hunting tomorrow.

[south_metro_fish]

DD is looking like it is in the lower temp of the study this year, around 700. I have a good feeling the yellows will be popping closer to the 1000 DD. I am headed SE this weekend and hoping our property is close to the 1000 DD dot that I see in SE MN. Soil temps are good in the upper 40s for a lot of MN with some lower 50s to the SW part of the state. What I have been hearing is around the 50s for soil temp is prime. I went out yesterday in one of my spots and found nothing the ground just didn't seem warm enough in the spots I was looking in. I bet the temps and rain we got today will get them going. I went fishing today figured I would give them a chance to come up before I gave it another shot tomorrow.

[south_metro_fish]

Finally DD around 700 ground temp in the low 50's and grays are a poppin in my area. Found about a dozen small grays scattered under different trees, not more then 2 under one tree. Had a ribeye and morels for dinner as a celebration, and it was so good. Give it a good week especially with this cooler weather coming and hopefully the yellows will start popping. Cant wait to get down to SE MN this weekend, I have a 3 day weekend, and hoping the yellows might be up down there. Just glad I don't live in southern Iowa, they had a real bad season that's already done. No rain and hot temps will end a season real quick. But back to the DD, it seems to be about right when you give it a range of 700 to 1000 to be looking for. Ground temp was about right on too, right around 50 and they are starting. I would guess that when you get these 80s quickly warming the ground after having a cool spring, your going to end up on the lower DD range. But if we would have continued a more gradual increase in temps and maybe not as cool to start with we would have probably been closer to the 1000 DD range. I am going to keep watching for years to come and see how it turns out in the future. I would have to say both watching DD and soil temp is a good indicator to know where the line is moving and when a good time is to start looking.

Good luck to all the season is on.

[JIvers]

"Just glad I don't live in southern Iowa, they had a real bad season that's already done."

Second year in a row we had a bad season in southeast Iowa. We had three bumper years before that, so I can't complain too much.

Last year a hot dry April killed the morel season before it started here in Iowa City. I ended up with two grays and five yellows for the entire spring...after filling half my fridge off the same public ground each of the three years before.

This year, we started out good (see my pics on this forum), but then cold weather two weeks ago stopped the morels from popping, the soil dried out before it got warm last week, and that was that. I got two meals and an omelette's worth this year, which was an improvement over 2010.

Last year I saved my morel season with a trip back to Fillmore County; I am thinking this year will be the same.

[IlliniWalli]

This year, we started out good, but then cold weather two weeks ago stopped the morels from popping, and the soil dried out before it got warm last week, and that was that.

thats exactly what happened in west central illinois.

did pretty good early, then they quit coming up, then i found a couple patches of nice yellows last week but most of them were toast.