Riding the PWR Bubble

[solbes]

Seems to be the time for speculating on which teams make the tourney and which are riding that bubble. Teams in positions 1-10 appear to be safe no matter what, in order: Yale, BC, UND, Michigan, DU, Union, UNO, Merrimack, Miami, Notre Dame.

Minnesota Duluth and New Hampshire I would say are liklies, but not locks at #11 and #12. That leaves the following teams riding that bubble: Dartmouth, Western Michigan, CC, Boston U, RPI, Maine, Minnesota, St Cloud.

RPI lost in their tourney, so they are likely out of it, helping surrounding teams. Everyone else is still in. Also we could have those surprise tourney winners that upend a team on the bubble. Hold on to your seats. Should be a great ride!

[cbrooks]

You forgot who ever wins the toilet conference. Probably Air Force or RIT is a lock for #4 seed somewhere.

I wander if UMD loses to SCSU this weekend are they in the tourament?

Here's some of the "teams under consideration" schedule for next week.

Dartmouth vs Harvard-Dartmouth will win

Western Mich vs Ferris St-Mich should win

Maine vs Merrick- Maine loses I hope. I think Merrick lost there best player a few weeks ago.

Boston U vs Northeastern-Northeastern beat BC a couple weeks ago. Head coach is suspended for the season. NCAA violations.

New Hampshire vs Vermont. New Hampshire will make it.

[solbes]

According to various people, it looks like Duluth would be in for most scenarios, even losing to SCSU. Biggest factor for them is if one or two underdogs end up winning their conference tourney. The well starts to dry up for all bubble teams and the "likelies".

Minnsota (and most of us in WCHA) should really be rooting hard for Harvard, Ferris St, and Merrimack. I see at least one win there, maybe two. Trying to predict the winner for BU/Northeastern is very tough.

[cbrooks]

I thought Boston U would be alot better this year. I don't think they make it. I've been following those East teams. Northeastern has look good this month. I think Maine is done after this weekend which is good because they swept UND back in Oct. Manhandle them is more like it.

[cbrooks]

Solbes I think Miami is gonna be tough. My worst nightmare is having these guys in our region. I bet they would match up with UMD pretty good. They both have the toplines in hockey going head to head.

Miami top lines

Andy Miele 19G 42A 1.79 pts per game

Carter Camper 17G 33A 1.47 pts per game

Reilly Smith 24G 20A 1.33 pts per game

UMD

Jack Connolly 13G 38A 1.46 pts per game

Justin Fontaine 20G 26A 1.31 pts per game

Mike Connolly 23G 22A 1.29 pts per game

[Bear55]

If UMD can get by St. Cloud they should be fine, if they lose in 2 or 3 games it could get interesting but I still think they sneak in the tournament. CC looks like they can play themselves into the NCAA's as long as they make the FF and put up a win or two, but no necessarily win the FF. I feel the Gophers have to win the FF to make the NCAA field, I guess a 2nd place might get them in but I would not bet on it. Both MN and CC will also need some outside help as they will need all the other bubble teams to lose.

[solbes]

I don't think anyone in their right mind would want to play Miami in the tourney. I still rememeber 2009, as I was at that game in Mariucci.

Gophers may need some help, but it might not be so bleak. They are winning lately and still control their own destiny. Winning against AA and the play in game at F5 might be enough, who knows?

[cbrooks]

CC I think makes it to the tourament with a win over Wisconsin. I don't see them beating UNO(I think thats who they will play unless BSU beats UNO). I don't think thats enough for CC to make the tourney.

I bet UNO will be a good tournament team. I think I might pick them to win the FF.

[Bear55]

The first round games aren't going to help much in the PWR, except for maybe CC because WI is still a TUC. I hope you are right solbes but I don't think that is enough. They have 5-0-2 in their last 7 games (8-4-3 2nd half) and barely moved up the PWR rankings. I feel they need to sweep AA, even losing one game could be enough to kill any hopes of an at large bid, then at the very least make it to the FF championship and hope none of the other 13-20 teams do as well as them during the playoffs.

[cbrooks]

CC I think makes it to the tourament with a win over Wisconsin.

Oops. When I said tourament I might to the final six in St Paul not the NCAA tourament.

[solbes]

If Minnesota SWEEPS Alaska this weekend and wins their Play-In game, they get a 3-1 TUC record. Should be just enough to make the field as a #15. Making the tourney as #15 assumes all teams winning the big 4 conference tourneys would be going already based on their PWR. If one upset team does win a tourney, then the Goph's would be last one out. The Atlantic conference tourney winner will be seeded #16.

Better to Sweep AA and win 2 games in the FF, so they don't have to rely on others. If the Gophs lose to AA even one game, then it's very tough.

[Bear55]

Ok I messed up again, AA is a TUC. For some reason I was thinking .500 record instead of .500 RPI.

You know looking at this a little further we might have a shot, if you look at the individual comparisons MN has PWR wins against CC an RP, and we have the potential to flip the comparisons by Maine, BU, WM, and Dartmouth if we can get our RPI from 5276 to .5317 as long as those teams RPI stays the same or gets worse. So we do need some help but it is possible I guess. We also have to watch out for CC and RP catching us in the RPI because they are close and can flip those comparisons back. Confusing for what?

[cbrooks]

I think Minnesota makes it after reading Solbes post.

[scsavre]

Granted, things need to go the Gophs way, However I think if they sweep and win one game in STP they have a chance. If they win thursday and then beet the Sioux on friday, I think they are in.

[archerystud]

Did it help the Gophers to play UAA over St. Cloud? Maybe not.

I didn't crunch the numbers but I would bet that if SCSU can bump off UMD that they will pass the Gophs just based on the fact of the current PWR rankings.

A big if is obviously SCSU has to win @ UMD but based on the current PWR it is probably a benefit to play the better team if you are down around the 19-20 range.

Should be an interesting next couple of weeks while trying to get into the NCAA's.

[Bear55]

It will be a little harder road for the Huskies, MN owns them on the PWR right now 4-1 but that doesn't mean that they can't flip a bunch of other comparisons and pass MN. They are also long shots to flip BU and Maine.

Here is a good link to check out the individual comparisons.

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-rankings/d-i-men/grid/

[archerystud]

I guess you are right Bear. I took a few minutes and read over how thing are calculated which I had never really looked at before.

Not sure if I like the Common opponent comparison and the WCHA adding two more teams.

So MN played the following twice after this weekend: UMD, WI, AA and MT. SCSU will have played the following twice: UMD, ND, UNO and Bemidji State.

Obviously MN should have a better Common opponent record. Oh well, had the Huskies played well earlier in the year it wouldn't have been an issue and who knows where teams are going to finish each year. Hard to come up with a perfect solution.

Ha, can't even flag Bemidji with their two letters or I get nailed for the "Poor Word Usage"

[Bear55]

I guess you are right Bear. I took a few minutes and read over how thing are calculated which I had never really looked at before.

Not sure if I like the Common opponent comparison and the WCHA adding two more teams.

So MN played the following twice after this weekend: UMD, WI, AA and MT. SCSU will have played the following twice: UMD, ND, UNO and Bemidji State.

Obviously MN should have a better Common opponent record. Oh well, had the Huskies played well earlier in the year it wouldn't have been an issue and who knows where teams are going to finish each year. Hard to come up with a perfect solution.

Ha, can't even flag Bemidji with their two letters or I get nailed for the "Poor Word Usage"

I'm a much bigger fan of the KRACH system because there are some holes the way PWR works itself out but overall it does a good job. Both the Gophers and St. Cloud dug themselves a hole and have no one to blame but themselves.

[archerystud]

Both the Gophers and St. Cloud dug themselves a hole and have no one to blame but themselves.

Agreed. Just a bummer because SCSU had high expectations this year. Looks like they are finally playing up to par but it's probably a little too late unless they can run the table.

[cbrooks]

SCSU made there turnaround when they canned some of there players on there team right around the Florida tourament. Funny what chemisty can do to a team good or bad. From what I say of the team in December there forwards were as good as any team but there defensemen where flat out bad.

[solbes]

Northeastern beat BU last night 4-2. Overall seeding is still very similar, but UMD is now solely in 10th with previously tied Notre Dame slipping to 11th.

I love how PWR works. Notre Dame lost 3 of 4 points from BU early on. BU's lower RPI dropped Notre Dame's RPI very slightly. Now Miami picks up the comparison because their RPI is very marginally better.

Below is the line for the TUC cliff for those teams that have comparisons to them:

Quinnipiac 0.5086

RIT 0.5039

MSU-Mankato 0.5023

Air Force 0.5023

Cornell 0.5022

---

Robert Morris 0.4988

NorthEastern 0.4978

Bemidji State 0.4972

Niagara 0.4963

Lake Superior 0.4943

[scsavre]

They play tonight too. That could be 3 straight losses for Bu at the hands of NE. Thats gotta help some of us.

[solbes]

Minny stands to benefit the most from continued BU losses. RPI is the deciding factor, with theirs being higher, but not by much. I could see that comparison flipping with series loss BU and series win by UofM. Go Northeastern! (I have a special hatred for Boston teams).

[Bear55]

I think we all do solbes. I also have a great hatred of Michigan, but beating them in the Frozen 4 during those back to back season has eased my hate a little.

Back in the 90's the Gopher had some killer teams but always seemed to run into a hot or sometimes better Michgan team, I still get sick thinking about that Mike Legg goal.

[solbes]

That Mike Legg goal was sweeet. Rooting for either team, it was a thing of beauty.