pairwise ranking

[cbrooks]

Time to start looking at your teams pairwise ranking. rankings as of Jan 16th

1.yale 15-2-0

2.UND 17-6-2

3.Denver 14-5-5

4tBoston Coll 15-5-0

4tUMD 15-5-3

6.Michigan 15-6-4

7tNotre Dame 15-8-3

7tWisconsin 15-8-3

9.New Hamsphire 12-4-4

10.Dartmouth 10-5-2

11.Boston U 10-5-6

12tUnion 15-6-3

12tMerrimack 12-4-4

12tNebraska-Omaha 12-8-2

15tMaine 10-6-4

15tWeston Michigan 12-6-6

17tRPI 13-6-3

17tMiami 13-8-3

19.Alaska 10-8-4

20.Princeton 11-6-1

21tMinnesota 10-9-3

21tBemidji St 9-11-2

23.CC 12-11-1

24.Mankato 10-9-5

25.Ohio St 12-9-2

[cbrooks]

Minnesota's remaining schedule is

AA

at UMD

Denver

at Wisconsin

Mich Tech

at Bemidji

How many points do they need to finish in the top 5 or 6 in the WCHA? I'm guessing at least 18 pts.

[cbrooks]

The more I look at these rankings. You have five teams from the WCHA making it. UND, UMD and Denver will be there more than likely. Wisconsin and UNO are also in the NCAA if they were to be played today(top 16 teams). If your a Minnesota fan you want UNO to continue to lose so you can take there spot in the rankings. I think Wisconsin could fall out of there as well but that would take a little more. Still lots of hockey to be played.

[Bear55]

Minnesota's remaining schedule is

AA

at UMD

Denver

at Wisconsin

Mich Tech

at Bemidji

How many points do they need to finish in the top 5 or 6 in the WCHA? I'm guessing at least 18 pts.

The next three series will make or brake us, we need more than 3 splits and absolutely have to sweep Bemidji and Tech. Making it to the Final Five and doing some damage never hurts either.

[cbrooks]

Boston college lost to Maine last night so they move down a spot so UMD is alone at 4th.

UMD only nonconference loss is against UND for the hall of fame game. That seems to be holding there ranking back so far. UMD has a pretty easy schedule left.

@Michigan Tech

Minnesota

SCSU

@MSU

@CC

UNO

I think UMD should able to finish in the top three for the WCHA. That should get them a #1 seed in the NCAA tourament.

Bear I see Minnesota as a dangerous team. I'm actually impress with how they played last weekend. The defensemen stay at home keeping it a low scoring game. Your right on not having much wiggle room but its doable. It should make for some good hockey down the stretch. Imagine if they would have been swept this weekend. Friday's win was huge for Minnesota.

Is anyone surprise that Miami is so low? I wouldn't want to pay them first round. I'm getting ahead of myself. We still have the McNaughton and Broadmoor trophy to play for.

[solbes]

Big news on the pairwise front. The definition of TUC, or teams under consideration, has changed yet again as a component of pairwise ranking system. The system in place at the beginning of the year placed a team in TUC status if it was in the top 25 with regards to RPI. It has changed back to the way it used to be, pre-2006, as any team with a .500+ RPI.

Remember that TUC cliff we discussed earlier this year, it's now been changed yet again. For example UMD has non-conference wins this year against Clarkson, Providence, and Northern Michigan. UMD in fact knocked out Clarkson form the top 25 when we swept them early this year. The new system will include both Clarkson and Northern Michigan, which were not included in the old system. So you may have movement in pairwise rankings. See article cut and pasted from college hockey news:

"Committee Tweaks Pairwise Criteria for 2011

CHN Staff Report

The NCAA Division I Men's Ice Hockey Committee has tweaked the Pairwise criteria, returning it to a previous state.

The committee has reverted its definition of "Team Under Consideration" back to an earlier one. Now, a TUC is one with a .500 or better RPI.

The "Pairwise" is the moniker for the system the NCAA uses to select and seed the field for the NCAA Tournament. Its entire process is explained on CHN here.

One criterion of the Pairwise is "Record vs. Other Teams Under Consideration." The definition of a TUC, however, has changed over the years. Since 2006, it's been defined as teams ranked in the Top 25 of the RPI (Ratings Percentage Index, i.e. the NCAA's formula for factoring strength of schedule into a team's record). Now, the committee has reverted the definition back to its prior definition.

Going off the current Pairwise, it extends the amount of Teams Under Consideration from 25 to 34. (See: complete RPI)

The consequence is that, because of the arbitrary nature of picking one definition of TUC vs. the other, the Pairwise looks different now than it did yesterday. It's like an exaggerated version of the "TUC Cliff."

(The "TUC Cliff" is a term used to describe what happens when teams fall in and out of TUC status. When this happens, teams' Records vs. TUC will fluctuate, sometimes drastically, thus affecting their placement in the Pairwise. The 2006 change was meant to mitigate this effect, but it still existed.)

The most dramatic beneficiary is Western Michigan, which moves from No. 16 up to No. 11 due to the re-definition. New Hampshire moved from No. 9 to No. 6.

Conversely, the team most adversely affected is Maine, which went from No. 10 to No. 16 under the re-definition."

[Bear55]

So things changed but really stayed the same. When are they going to wake up and go with the KRACH ranking system.

The PWR isn't a terrible system because you can play your way in or out of the tournament, if you are a bubble team in or out you deserve your fate. However, these large ranking shifts each week are just don't seem right to me.

If you look at them side by side they are pretty similar and the top 10 are usually the same. Where things get tricky is after the top teams you have a bunch of teams that play different schedules and conferences. The KRACH is heavy based off a teams record and their strength of schedule and is a purely math system. If you win you ranking can't go down, if you lose it can't go up.

PWR

1 Yale

2t North Dakota

2t Minnesota-Duluth

4 Denver

5 Michigan

6 New Hampshire

7t Boston College

7t Notre Dame

9 Wisconsin

10t Merrimack

10t Western Michigan

12 Dartmouth

13 Union

14 Nebraska-Omaha

15 Rensselaer

16 Miami

17 Maine

18t Boston University

18t Alaska

20 Princeton

21 Colorado College

22 Bemidji State

23 Minnesota

24t Ohio State

24t Ferris State

26 Minnesota State

27t Brown

27t Alaska-Anchorage

29 Clarkson

30t Robert Morris

30t Northern Michigan

32 Quinnipiac

33 Michigan State

34 St. Cloud State

KRACH

1 Yale

2 North Dakota

3 Minnesota-Duluth

4 Denver

5 Boston College

6 Michigan

7 Wisconsin

8 Notre Dame

9 New Hampshire

10 Merrimack

11 Union

12 Nebraska-Omaha

13 Maine

14 Dartmouth

15 Western Michigan

16 Miami

17 Boston University

18 Rensselaer

19 Alaska

20 Minnesota

21 Colorado College

22 Bemidji State

23 Minnesota State

24 Alaska-Anchorage

25 Ohio State

26 Princeton

27 Brown

28 Ferris State

29 Northern Michigan

30 St. Cloud State

[cbrooks]

So things changed but really stayed the same. When are they going to wake up and go with the KRACH ranking system.

The PWR isn't a terrible system because you can play your way in or out of the tournament, if you are a bubble team in or out you deserve your fate. However, these large ranking shifts each week are just don't seem right to me.

. The KRACH is heavy based off a teams record and their strength of schedule and is a purely math system. If you win you ranking can't go down, if you lose it can't go up.

+1

[solbes]

I'm just very surprised they changed it in January. Why not wait until the end of the season? I agree there are positives and negatives with the pairwise system. I would not be opposed to the Krach system at all, but who can understand the inner workings of the NCAA? They seem to love to change football bowl games around quite a bit too.

[cbrooks]

I think they should have waited as well. This will bring more drama to the NCAA tourney selection this year.

[Bear55]

Ya this middle of the years stuff has me scratching my head.

[solbes]

I'm not complaining that much. My team moved up a few spots even though I'm not sure they deserve to be tied with UND. Non-cons can make a huge difference for teams. Something apparently UMD learned over last year. Besides a mediocre finish, the non-conference games were why we didn't get in.

If I were Maine I would not be too pleased right now.

[cbrooks]

I wouldn't complain if Maine didn't make it. They dominated UND earlier this year.

[scsavre]

I dont really look into the power ranking thing much, but I did notice its gotta be a mess to figure out.

UND only has a winning record over 2 top 20 teams.

They swept Wisc and 1-0-1 vs NDame.

other wise

1-1 vs denver

1-1 vs UMD oops sorry just notice 2-1

1-2 vs UNO

0-2 vs Maine

1-0-1 Notre Dame

So does this mean that no other teams have better records vs the top 20. I see Denver has about 5 wins and UMD is not better. I think Wis has beaten 1 ranked team. Gophs beat 5.

What a mess. I woulda thought the top few teams were dominating the others. Yale has only beaten CC, Union and Vermont. and the only team left to play is Union. I wouldnt have yale in my top 10 with that garbage.

[solbes]

You get a point for having the better RPI though, so Yale automatically gets one point on every other team. True their strength of schedule is weak, but having the best record trumps this for the most part. UND has by far the toughest schedule and they are only partially rewarded for it.

The top WCHA teams have fared pretty well in non-conference play this year. So this helps all of them out. That's one of the reasons why we see the WCHA ranked so high with UND, UMD, and Denver all crowded near the top nationally.

[cbrooks]

I'm gonna post this every week. So many WCHA teams on the bubble.

Jan 24th

1.Yale

2.UMD

3.UND

4.Denver

5.Boston College

6.Michigan

7.RPI

8.Wisconsin

9.Notre Dame

10.Western Michigan

11.New Hampshire

12.dartmouth

13.Nebraska-Omaha

14.Merrick

15.Union

16.Miami

17.CC

18.Maine

19.Boston U

20.Princeton

21.Minnesota

22.Alaska

23.Ohio St

24.Clarkson

25.SCSU

26.Northern Mich

27.Quinnipiac

28.brown

29.BSU

30.Mankato

31.Michigan St

32.Niagara

25.

14.Merrick

[cbrooks]

Good news for Duluth. Yale lost 3-2 to Union. UMD should be #1 after this weekend.

[solbes]

Good news for all 3 top WCHA teams really. Denver was the big winner, but still is in 2nd place to top ranked Yale. UMD and UND both moved down a spot. We need one more Yale loss tonight to Rennselaer. Then I think all 3 teams would be on the verge of leapfrogging those Lady Bulldogs.

CC came out firing last night eh? Howe was fantastic in net, especially in the first period. 20 shots! I had a good time watching both the Gophers and the Sioux play last night. Convincing win by maroon and gold, I guess so far I was wrong on that one.

I may have ranted about this before, but why does CBS college sports channel only broadcast 2 or 3 WCHA games per year (out of 20+)? I can't tell you how many lame Atlantic or ECAC conference games they show, and almost ignore the best or 2nd best conference in hockey. Too lazy to get on an airplane?

[solbes]

Forgot, two other things. I haven't seen any updates on Genoway's injury? It looked like a knee injury, so hopefully it was just tweaked.

And I was watching the end of Miami vs Notre Dame. They had a shootout. I was like??? Officially they list it as a 5-5 OT tie. Do they award extra points to Miami's CCHA standings only since they won the shootout?

[scsavre]

Stinking Sue cant even win when I want them too. Come on help a gopher out. Whatever happened to that criminal Frattin, the kid was on fire, but nothing for awhile now.

The broadcasting is just more Eastern Favoritism. The NHL is really bad too. I swear they would have the WCHA playoff out there if they could. Thats where they are located so they hire eastern guys to work the games. The coverage is always terrible anyways. I still remember in a game last year when they picked Barribal to be a big impact player in the game, however Barribal hadnt played in over a month.

WCHA placing is going to be very exciting. Darn near Everyone is in the mix for home ice.

What do you think 3 number 1 seeds for the WCHA, It would have to be very convincing because the league is pretty against the WCHA these days. It could make for good crowds though.

[cbrooks]

I haven't taken a look at the pairwise. Denver was the winner there. Atleast a WCHA team got the #1 ranking. UND shouldn't benefit from the Yale lost. They have some work to do.

Solbes there isn't anything current on Genoway lower body injury. If you want to check g@@gle "undhockey period areavoices dot com". You can read some of the UND fans comments. It might be worth your while to check it out.

Good question on the Miami game. That team has to be the big disappointment this year.

[solbes]

Miami may be a dissapointment, but they have a strong chance of producing their first Hobey Baker award winner. Camper or Miele are very strong contenders this year with their leading point production. I wouldn't want to play Miami in the NCAA's, should they make it.

Of course the WCHA could produce another Hobey (7 out of the last 9 years have gone to WCHA). Frattin is on the forefront, one of the FCC guys in Duluth, plus a few other guys. I keep hoping one of the UMD guys goes off the last 2 months here. That would make 5 overall, which would be tops in the nation.

[cbrooks]

I don't think Frattin should get it. He might have the best numbers on UND but he isn't there best player on that team. Its too bad Jaden Schwartz ,the freshman forward from CC, is hurt. He was putting up some solid numbers.

[cbrooks]

I thought yale losing twice would knock them out of first place. I bet them beating CC kept them in first. Jan 30th

1.Yale

2.UND

3.Denver

4.UMD

5.Boston College

6.RPI

7.Wisconsin

8.New Hampshire

9.Michigan

10.Merrimack

11.Weston Michigan

12.Notre Dame

13.Union

14.Dartmouth

15.Boston U

16.Princeton

17.UNO

18.CC

19.Miami

20.Maine

21.Alaska

22.Minnesota

23.Ohio ST

24.Northern Mich

25.Ferris st

26.Mankato

27.Robert Morris

28.Michigan st

29.Quinnipiac

30.Alaska Anchorage

31.SCSU

32.Brown

33.Niagara

I see a few dangerous teams right on the bubble.

[solbes]

Those Yalies had a terrible weekend They played a couple of worthy opponents and choked big time. They have upcoming single road games against Clarkson, Quinnipiac, and Princeton in the next few weeks. Maybe 1-2 losses there and the possibility of them giving up the top spot. I'm not going to hold my breath though.

It looks like there is a strong possibility that UND, Denver, and Duluth all manage to stay in the top 4. BC could threaten, but there is a drop off after that.