Mark Seeley's Weather Talk

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Dec 31, 2004

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYONE!

HEADLINES:

- 2004 Minnesota weather review...

- 2004 National weather review...

- 2004 International weather review...

- Maximum range in daily temperatures...

- Almanac for December 31st

- Manky weather

- Outlook

Topic: 2004 Minnesota weather stories and headlines....

A warmer than normal year, with excess precipitation in many

places. The beginning and ending of the year were bookmarked

by -45 degrees F at Park Rapids in January (the 30th) and at

Embarrass in December (Christmas Eve). Highest temperature in

the state was 97 F at several locations both in June and July.

Precipitation was abundant in many places, with La Crescent

reporting over 48 inches for the year, Winona 47 inches,

and Albert Lea 45 inches. Bricelyn reported 9.22 inches of

rain in one day (September 15), while Alden, west of Albert Lea

reported 13 inches from one storm (Sept 15-16).

Discounting the polar regions of Alaska, Minnesota reported the

coldest temperature in the nation on at least 55 days in 2004.

Cold temperatures in late January and February drove frost deep

into the ground, beyond 60 inches in places. Many septic systems

were frozen and homeowners had to bear the expense of thawing

them out.

A snow burst on the morning of March 8th produced 2-3 inches of

snow in an hour, snarled traffic and caused numerous accidents

in the Metro area.

Over 25 Minnesota communities reported temperatures of 90 F or

higher on April 28th with Benson tying the state record for the

date at 95 F.

A terrific wind storm in the Twin Cities on Mother's Day (May 9th)

brought down many trees, especially in Como Park.

A very cold growing season in Minnesota caused crops to develop

very slowly. There was widespread frost in central and northern

counties on August 20-21. But, the crop season was rescued by one

of the warmest Septembers in history and most crops reached maturity.

For many communities there were more days with 90 F or greater

temperatures in September than any other month of the year, a highly

unusual pattern.

One of the largest and most intense flash floods in Minnesota history

occurred on September 15-16 in parts of Martin, Faribault, Freeborn,

and Steele Counties, dumping up to 10 to 13 inches and flooding every

watershed in the area.

Finally, a freezing rain and drizzle on December 20th across central

Minnesota produced nearly 350 traffic accidents, the most for any

single day of the year.

Topic: 2004 National Weather Stories and Headlines....

Alaska recorded its warmest ever summer with 90 F plus readings in

the months of June, July, and August. There were also more than

the usual number of thunderstorms.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center reports that

2004 was a record year for number of tornadoes in the United States.

The preliminary count is over 1700 breaking the record of 1424 set

in 1998. There were new record monthly totals reported in August

(173), and September (247). Despite this high frequency in tornadoes

there were only 35 deaths nationally due to such storms, a

testamonial to the improved storm warning system of the National

Weather Service.

The Atlantic hurricane season was an active one with 15 named tropical

storms, nine of which affected the United States. Four hurricanes

visited Florida (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne). This produced

the most costly hurricane season with estimates running as high as

$42 billion. A downstream consequence to American agriculture as a

result of Hurricane Ivan will be the introduction of Asian soybean

rust as a major crop disease.

Lingering drought in the western states did not abate in many areas

and aggravated another very active wildfire season.

Christmas week snows blanketed Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky. The same

system even brought Arkansas and the New Orleans area an exceptionally

rare White Christmas.

Topic: 2004 International Weather Stories and Headlines...

A January cold wave in South Asia, primarily India and Bangladesh,

was blamed for over 600 deaths as much of the homeless population

was exposed to temperatures in the 30s F.

Australia suffered through one of the worst February heat waves ever,

with temperatures soaring to 113 degrees F.

A very rare hurricane formed in the South Atlantic off the coast of

Brazil in March. By the end of the month it struck the coastal

region near Santa Catarina, as a tropical storm named Catarina.

Peru, Chile, and Argentina suffered through a cold, snowy winter

(June and July) reporting over 50 deaths due to the snow and cold.

A rare August 20th hard freeze caused nearly $1 billion in crop

losses to farmers in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, Canada.

Japan suffered through its worst ever tropical storm season, sustaining

ten storm landfalls. In October Typhoon Ma-on with winds of 109 mph

struck near the Tokyo area, the strongest storm there in 10 years.

(P.S. I recognize that the significance of the above pales in

comparison to the recent tsunami disaster in Indonesia and the

coastal regions of the Indian Ocean, but that disaster is distinctly

geologic in nature and not atmospheric)

MPR listener question: I heard you mention during the Christmas

Eve Midday program that the all-time state temperature records

for Christmas Day are 62 degrees F at Faribault in 1923 and -50 F

at Big Falls in 1933, a range of 112 degrees for a single day.

What is the largest range in daily temperature records for the state?

Answer: The largest range in statewide daily temperature records can

be found in the months of February and March which for both warmth

and cold can be greatly modified by the presence or absence of snow

cover on the Minnesota landscape. The largest range in temperature

I can find is for March 18th. In 1921 Canby (Yellow Medicine County)

registered a temperature of 84 degrees F on that date, while in 1939,

Sawbill Camp (Cook County) reported a low of -48 degrees F on the

same date. This is a range of 132 degrees F on the same date!

Twin Cities Almanac for December 31st:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F

(plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 8 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for December 31st:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 50 degrees F in 1904; lowest daily maximum

temperature of -12 degrees F in 1968; lowest daily minimum

temperature of -24 degrees F in 1973; highest daily minimum

temperature of 34 degrees F in 1904; record precipitation of 0.48

inches in 1911; and record snowfall of 7.2 inches in 1977.

There have been 30 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891.

Greatest snow depth on this date was 18 inches in 1969 and 1996.

The worst wind chill conditions occurred in 1968 with a reading

of -47 F.

Average dew point for December 31st is 9 degrees F, with a maximum

of 43 degrees F in 1965 and a minimum of -34 degrees F in 1967.

All-time state records for December 31st:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 58 degrees F at St Peter (Nicollet County) in 1921 and at

Winona in 1965; the all-time low is -57 degrees F at Pokegama Dam

(Itasca County) in 1898. The heaviest snowfall statewide on this

date occurred in 1996 when Two Harbors reported 18.4 inches,

concluding a month in which they had over 48 inches of snow. On

this date in 1887 Grand Meadow reported 11 inches of snow, that

melted down to 1.50 inches of precipitation, a state record for

the date.

Words of the week: Manky weather.....

This is a British expression for the type of weather that brings

persistent, low overcast skies, high humidity, sometimes fog,

and generally murky conditions. We have certainly had our share

of this type of weather during December. Manky is sometimes used

as a adjective to indicate something is dirty or unpleasant.

Outlook:

Cloudy with a chance for snow in western sections on Saturday,

perhaps light snow and freezing drizzle elsewhere. Snow likely

on Saturday night, lingering in the eastern sections early Sunday.

Then cooler temperatures will settle over the area for much of

next week. There will be another chance for snow Monday night

through Wednesday. It looks like the first full week of January

may bring some accumulating snowfalls.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Jan 7, 2005

HEADLINES:

- Cold start for the New Year

- Snow cover around the state

- Quirky weather story

- Remembering the 1873 Blizzard

- Dangerous weather for next week?

- Almanac for January 7th

- Blue norther

- Outlook

Topic: Cold start to January....

Very cold arctic air dominated the state this week with many

low temperatures readings well below zero. Embarrass reported

the nation's low on both January 3rd and the 5th with

observations of -31 F and -43 F, respectively. On January 6th,

Cook, MN reported the lowest temperature in the nation with

-36 F. Additionally, the January 5th low of -39 degrees F at

Grand Forks, ND set a new record, while -34 F at International

Falls tied the record low value.

With the cold air and relative absence of snow cover in many

places the depth of ground frost increased and now ranges

from 20-30 inches in places.

Topic: Snow depth around the state....

Greg Spoden of the DNR-State Climatology Office provides the

following early January assessment....

As of January 5, snow cover was minimal across most of the

southern one-half of Minnesota. A major storm moving through the

Midwest....dropped one to six inches of snow on the far southern

tier of Minnesota counties. Snow depths were four to eight inches

north of a line from Fergus Falls to Moose Lake. Most communities

north of U.S. Highway 2 report snow depths exceeding 12 inches.

Along the Lake Superior highlands, snow depths range from 18 to

24 inches. The January 6 snow depth ranking map will show that

snow cover in most of the southern one-half of Minnesota ranks

below the 20th percentile when compared with other January 6 snow

depths in the historical record. In some southern Minnesota

communities, seasonal snowfall totals through early-January are

among the lowest in the modern record.

Those who want to keep track of snow cover this winter can go

to the State Climatology Office web site for weekly updates...

http://www.climate.umn.edu/doc/snowmap.htm

Topic: Quirky weather news....

The Christmas snow that fell across southern Texas was so unusual,

some observers think it might be marketable.....Associated Press

reported earlier this week that a man in Brownsville was selling

a basketball sized snowball on hsolist for $5000...so far the highest

bid was $5.50. Brownsville had not seen a measurable snowfall

since 1895. Another citizen in Corpus Christi was selling a bowl

of snow collected there. No takers on that one......

Topic: Remembering the blizzard of 1873...

On this date in 1873 a lethal blizzard hit southern Minnesota and

northwestern Iowa, killing scores of pioneer settlers of all ages.

It was estimated that over 70 Minnesota settlers lost their lives,

though most counties were sparsely populated at the time.

The storm moved over the region on a Monday afternoon which began

as a rather mild January day with temperatures from 30 to 32 F.

Observers noted the approach of a large, dark cloud system from

the NW, moving very rapidly over the prairie landscape. The

well-known meteorologist Bruce Watson studied this storm and

reported that..."the clouds sloped to the ground, and where they

intersected the ground, they were white, with smoke like swirls.."

evoking an image of a moving wall of snowflakes. When the storm

hit it almost immediately brought visibility down to just a few

feet, and snow accumulated rapidly on top of an already snow

covered landscape. People caught in the open had to scramble for

some kind of shelter. Many were put up in town or on the nearest

farmstead. Trails and roads were closed down for days by huge

drifts.

The New Ulm Smithsonian weather observer reported that the storm

posed a serious threat in a matter of minutes because in addition

to the snow, the wind blew the already existing foot and a half

of snow cover all over the countryside. It snowed and blew on

the 7th, 8th, and 9th finally coming to an end about 11 pm on

Wednesday. Nine inches of snow was recorded at New Ulm with

a drop of 43 degrees F in temperature and estimated wind chill

values as low as -45 degrees F. The Minneapolis observer reported

8 new inches of snow with a temperature drop of 51 degrees F,

and an estimated wind chill of -40 degrees F. Few blizzards of

such suddenness and ferocity have occurred in Minnesota history.

The Governor, Horace Austin, and the Minnesota Legislature reacted

by appropriating $5000 for a relief fund which was distributed to

survivors in 34 Minnesota counties. Memories of this blizzard were

as frightening and vivid to this generation of Minnesotans as those

who experienced the famous Armistice Day Blizzard of 1940. Evidence

for this can be found in many historical documents and accounts.

MPR listener question: Wintry weather was certainly in the headlines

this week across the central U.S., but on Tuesday Knight Ridder

newspapers carried a story about an even more extreme winter

weather pattern for next week, some meteorologists suggesting that

the coldest temperatures in years may descend upon us. Can you

comment?

Answer: I saw the story which emanated from the Climate Prediction

Center's weekly hazards assessment that was released on Tuesday

afternoon. California and the west will undoubtedly get abundant

rainfall and snow as a result of the strong low pressure system

coming off the Pacific Ocean. The strength and track of this

storm system is still uncertain, but it may come our way by

Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Should this happen we would be

in for a great deal of wind and some significant snowfall.

The other feature highlighted in the article was the invasion of an

arctic air mass that crossed the north pole from Siberia. This too

may bring extremely cold air to Minnesota. Some forecast models

estimate a central high pressure in this air mass of 1050 mb, or

31 inches on the home barometer, and lows of -40 F or colder. The

state record high pressure value is 31.11 inches at Collegeville,

MN on January 21, 1922. That air mass brought temperatures of -50 F

to northern Minnesota. Of more recent vintage, remember that when

the state record low of -60 F was set at Tower on February 2, 1996,

the central pressure of the arctic air mass was about 1044 mb, or

30.8 inches on the home barometer.

But much can change over the next several days. Watch the weather

maps daily to see if the arctic high pressure system maintains its

continuity or breaks down before the middle of next week.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 7th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 21 degrees F

(plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 5 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 7th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 52 degrees F in 2003; lowest daily maximum

temperature of -9 degrees F in 1912; lowest daily minimum

temperature of -27 degrees F in 1912; highest daily minimum

temperature of 34 degrees F in 1965; record precipitation of 0.30

inches in 1989; and record snowfall of 6.0 inches in 1873.

There have been 23 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891.

Greatest snow depth on this date was 18 inches in 1969. The worst

wind chill conditions occurred in 1912 with a reading of -47 F.

Average dew point for January 7th is 5 degrees F, with a maximum

of 37 degrees F in 1965 and a minimum of -33 degrees F in 1976.

All-time state records for January 7th:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 59 degrees F at New Ulm (Brown County) in 1933 and at

Amboy (Blue Earth County) in 2003; the all-time low is -54 degrees

F at International Falls in 1909. The heaviest snowfall statewide on

this date occurred in 1994 near Finland (Lake County) when Wolf Ridge

reported 36 inches, which happens to be the state record snowfall for

24 hours. The state record for precipitation (liquid equivalent)

on this date is 2.50 inches at Hutchinson in 1999.

Words of the Week: Blue Norther

Texans have certainly felt the bite of winter recently. Fast moving

cold fronts from the north during the fall and winter seasons are

called blue northers. Historical explanations for this name are

varied. Some say the sky is dark blue under a polar high pressure

system that decends from the Panhanlde area. The air mass is so

dry it prevents the formation of clouds. Others say that the drop

in temperature is so severe that people turn blue in the cold.

Variants of the term include "blue whistler" for the strong winds and

aeolian sounds they make, or "blue darter" for the speed of the

frontal passage.

Outlook:

Near normal to above temperatures over the weekend with a chance for

light snow in the north and perhaps somemore freezing rain or drizzle

in the south. Warming trend for Monday and Tuesday, but with increasing

clouds, wind, and chances for precipitation. Mid week looks quite stormy,

with significant snowfall for most areas and strong winds.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Jan 14, 2005

HEADLINES:

-Snow depths increasing, help stabilize soil temperature

-Blizzard anniversaries

-19th Century weather signals

-Consecutive days below zero F

-Almanac for January 14th

-Regime shift

-Outlook

Topic: Snow depth increasing around the state....

Repeated bouts of flurries and light snow have provided a little

bit deeper blanket of snow across many areas of the state this week.

Parts of western and central Minnesota picked up 3 to 8 inches

early in the week, with St Cloud reporting a new record snowfall

on the 12th of 6.2 inches. This fell on top of a paltry 1-2 inches

that had existed over the recent holiday season. The added depth

should help stabilize the penetration of soil frost with the onset

of arctic air for the weekend. In many places frost depths have

reached well beyond two feet, and shallow soil temperatures have

fallen into the teens F. But the added snow cover should prevent

them from declining even more. However, areas missed by the

recent snow, are likely to see an increase in frost depth of at

least one foot if not more by Sunday.

Topic: Significant Blizzard Anniversaries

Last week we mentioned the famous Minnesota blizzard of January

7-10 of 1873. This week is the 30th anniversary of Minnesota's

Storm of the Century, a blizzard which occurred on January 10-12,

1975. This storm produced record low barometric pressure values,

(28.40 inches at Grand Portage), snowfalls ranging from 6 to 23

inches, winds in excess of 50 mph, windchill values of -40 to

-60 degrees F and zero visibilities. Fortunately, it was a well

forecasted storm with National Weather Service meteorologists

giving up to 14 hours notice on expected blizzard conditions.

Up to 35 deaths were blamed on the storm and it took up to 11 days

to clear many blocked roads with snow drifts over 20 feet. As many

as 168 passengers were stranded on a train in Willmar until the

tracks could be cleared. The American Red Cross provided food

and shelter to nearly 17,000 people who were either stranded or

had lost power at home.

This week is also the 117th anniversary of the 19th Century's

most lethal blizzard in Minnesota, that of January 12-13, 1888.

Known as "The Children's Blizzard" it is described by author David

Laskin in his new book by the same name. Like the blizzard of 1873,

this blizzard struck after a mild morning period (temps in the 30s F)

during which people had set off for school or to do outdoor chores.

Many ended up being trapped out in fields, on the road or at schools.

Dangerous windchill conditions persisted for many hours with very

little visibility due to blowing snow. There were about 200 deaths

associated with the storm, both in Minnesota and neighboring states.

Many were school children trying to get home from school. The

mercury dipped to -37 degrees F in St Paul following the storm, and

the very next week it hit an all-time record low of -41 degrees

F, unsurpassed in the modern weather records of the Twin Cities.

Topic: 19th Century Weather Signals for Great Lakes Shipping

During the 19th century the Weather Service instituted a system of

flag and pennant signals to provide tows and shipping vessels with

a warning of expected dangerous weather conditions. A square white

flag alone indicated fair weather, a square blue flag rain or snow.

A white flag with a black square in the center indicated the

approach of a cold wave. A red flag with a black center indicated

the approach of a severe storm. Pennants displayed with the flags

indicated the expected wind direction. A red pennant was used for

easterly winds, and a white pennant for westerly. If the pennant

was above the flag, favors a northerly quadrant, while the pennant

below the flag favors a southerly quadrant.

These weather signals were displayed continuously during daylight

hours, but no nighttime signals were provided.

MPR listener question: I moved to the Twin Cities from Alabama

in 1999 and have been told repeatedly that the coldest week of

the year is the 4th week of January (22-28). Is this true?

Also when was the last time we averaged below zero temperatures

for several days?

Answer: Based on average daily temperature values, the 4th week

of January is the coldest in the Twin Cities over the past 100

years of record. This is not uniformly true across the state

however. At Duluth, for example, the coldest week historically

is the 3rd week of January (15-21).

Concerning the last spell of several days below zero F in the

Twin Cities, we recorded three consecutive days below zero F

in 1996, from February 1st to the 3rd. The average high was -13 F

and the average low was -28 F. Back in 1994 we had a spell that

lasted five consecutive days, from the 14th to the 18th of January.

The average daily high was -8 F and the average daily low was -22 F.

The longest ever such spell occurred from January 1st to the 7th

in 1912, when the average high was -8 F and the average low was

-21 F over seven consecutive days.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 14th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 23 degrees F

(plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 5 degrees F (plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 14th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 49 degrees F in 1944; lowest daily maximum

temperature of -16 degrees F in 1972; lowest daily minimum

temperature of -26 degrees F in 1963 and 1972; highest daily

minimum temperature of 32 degrees F in 2001; record precipitation

of 0.34 inches in 2001; and record snowfall of 4.4 inches in 1999.

There have been 28 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891.

Greatest snow depth on this date was 17 inches in 1970 and 1984.

The worst wind chill conditions occurred in 1972 with a reading

of -48 F.

Average dew point for January 14th is 7 degrees F, with a maximum

of 37 degrees F in 1947 and a minimum of -38 degrees F in 1972.

All-time state records for January 14th:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 57 degrees F at Browns Valley (Traverse County) in 1987;

the all-time low is -50 degrees F at Cook and Cotton (St Louis

County) in 1965. The heaviest snowfall statewide on this date

occurred in 1923 at Campbell (Wilkin County) when they recorded

12 inches. The state record for precipitation (liquid equivalent)

on this date is 1.60 inches at Milan (Chippewa County) in 2001,

which fell as rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow.

Words of the Week: Regime shift

This term has perhaps been used historically to describe changes

in political or military leadership rather than changes in the

natural world. In the modern scientific context it refers to

rapid reorganization and behavioral alteration of ecosystems,

more often than not brought on by a change in climate. These

shifts may last for years, decades, or centuries. Sometimes the

climate change is associated with extent and quantity of sea ice,

atmospheric pressure patterns and winds, precipitation, or

temperature. All of these can alter the environment enough to

change biological species composition, abundance, competition,

etc.

Outlook:

Bitterly cold weekend coming up (white flag with a black square

signal in the old days)...may have a number of days where

the temperature remains below zero F in places. Some moderation

in temperature will be in evidence on Monday, with readings above

zero F in southern counties. Then a chance for snow on Tuesday,

Wednesday and Thursday next week. Temperatures will continue to

average cooler than normal, but not so drastically.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Jan 21, 2005

HEADLINES:

-Heavy lake-effect snows this week

-New seasonal climate outlook

-New state record low temperature set on January 17th

-Remembering the blizzard of 1917

-The Metro Area's coldest morning ever on this date in 1888

-Consecutive hours with below zero F temperatures

-Minnesota places with polar-like -50 F temperatures

-Almanac for January 21st

-"on the chute"

-Outlook

Topic: Heavy lake-effect snow in northeastern MN....

Starting on Wednesday night this week, ENE winds off Lake

Superior brought heavy snow to parts of Lake, Cook, and St

Louis Counties. These conditions persisted most of the day

on Thursday. Snowfall rates of up to 2 inches per hour

were reported by some observers. The Wolf Ridge Environmental

Learning Center outside Finland, MN (Lake County) reported

over 15 inches of snowfall and a snow depth of over 50 inches..

need to break out the snowshoes there....

Topic: New Seasonal Climate Outlook....

On January 20th the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released the

new seasonal climate outlooks, including the period from February

through April.

For Minnesota the climate outlook suggests equal chances for

above or below normal temperature and precipitation during

the coming three months. The recent outlooks do favor above

normal temperature and precipitation for the balance of

January however.

Topic: New state record low temperatures set early in the week..

Embarrass (St Louis County) reported morning lows of -48 F on

January 16th and -54 F on January 17th, Sunday and Monday of

this week. These values are new all-time state lows for those

dates, surpassing the -47 F reading at Thorhult on January 16,

1977 and the -52 F reading at Tower on January 17, 1982.

The readings at Embarrass this week were also the coldest in

the 48 contiguous states on those dates, only surpassed by

a low of -60 F at Chandalar Lake in Alaska on January 17th.

Minnesota has reported the coldest temperature in the 48

contiguous states six times so far this month.

Topic: The blizzard of January 21, 1917

This blizzard struck the state on a Sunday and was somewhat

well forecasted, so that many were expecting it and prepared.

It snowed heavily for a long period of time from about 8:00 am

until 6:00 pm. Winds blew with ferocity in western Minnesota,

as gusts up to 48 mph were reported. Tracy, MN reported 24 inches

of snowfall (on their way to a monthly total of 41 inches), while

Redwood Falls reported 22 inches (on their way to a monthly total

of 34 inches), and Glencoe reported 16 inches. Roads were drifted

shut for days, and trains were delayed.

Topic: Perhaps the coldest morning ever in Southern Minnesota..

January 21st, 1888, roughly one week after the famous Children's

Blizzard, saw an arctic air mass settle over southern Minnesota

and sink temperatures to all-time record lows. The core of the

arctic high pressure sytem stood at 30.9 inches on the barometer

(1046 mb) roughly equivalent to the cold outbreak of February

2, 1996. In addition there was abundant snow cover present with

many communities reporting 30 inches or more of snow depth.

Record setting temperatures in the present Twin Cities Metro Area

and southeastern Minnesota included....

-46 F at Ft Snelling

-41 F at the Signal Corps Office in St Paul

-42 F at William Cheney's house in Minneapolis

-47 F at Le Sueur

-47 F at Excelsior

-52 F at Delano

-58 F at Rush City

-47 F at Carelton College in Northfield

-46 F at Red Wing

-50 F at St Cloud

-44 F at Winona

Topic: Remark on consecutive hours below zero F.....

The National Weather Service reported that both Duluth and

International Falls recorded nearly 5 consecutive days of below

zero temperatures following the arctic outbreak of January 13th.

Though this pattern is unusual, it is by no means record setting.

From mid January to late February of 1936 Moorhead, MN reported 36

consecutive days of below zero F readings, while Hallock reported

38 consecutive days. That is truly equivalent to living in a

polar climate!

MPR listener question: Earlier this week it was reported that

Embarrass, MN recorded a low of -54 F and Babbitt, MN a low of

-51 F. How many places in the state routinely record temperatures

of -50 F or colder?

Answer: Not many. In fact, I hesitate to use the term "routinely"

with a temperature of -50 F. Even for Minnesota's coldest places

a temperature reading that cold is at least a bit unusual.

Dozens of Minnesota communities have recorded a temperature of

-50 F or colder sometime in history. The reading of -51 F earlier

this week at Babbitt was a new all-time record low for that station.

The following list shows the weather stations in Minnesota that

have recorded temperatures of -50 F or colder the most number of

times....please bear in mind that they have variable periods of

record (from 10 years to over 100 years) so a comparison is unfair.

Pokegama Dam 30 times

Tower 12 times

Leech Lake 9 times

Embarrass 8 times

Itasca State Park 6 times

Big Falls 5 times

Detroit Lakes 5 times

Roseau 4 times

Twin Cities Almanac for January 21st:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 23 degrees F

(plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 6 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 21st:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 48 degrees F in 1900; lowest daily maximum

temperature of -7 degrees F in 1954; lowest daily minimum

temperature of -29 degrees F in 1970; highest daily minimum

temperature of 35 degrees F in 1934; record precipitation

of 0.81 inches in 1917; and record snowfall of 16 inches in 1917.

There have been 26 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891.

Greatest snow depth on this date was 24 inches in 1982. The worst

wind chill conditions occurred in 1936 with a reading of -47 F.

Average dew point for January 21st is 6 degrees F, with a maximum

of 38 degrees F in 1934 and a minimum of -35 degrees F in 1970.

All-time state records for January 21st:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 62 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1942;

the all-time low is -58 degrees F at Rush City (Chisago County)

in 1888 (with 3 feet of snow on the ground). The heaviest snowfall

statewide on this date occurred in 1917 at Tracy (Lyon County)

when they recorded 24 inches. The state record for precipitation

(liquid equivalent) on this date is 2.20 inches at Tracy and

Redwood Falls from the same storm in 1917.

Words of the Week: "Mercury on the chute"

This is an expression rarely used anymore, but in the first 50 years

of the National Weather Service it was used to describe the onset

of a cold wave, when temperatures fall rapidly and reach levels

that are a threat to agriculture and commerce. Often times when the

mercury in the thermometer was dropping rapidly, meteorologists

would report that the "mercury was on the chute." We have already

had two episodes of mercury on the chute this winter in the Twin Cities

Metro area, one during Christmas week when temperature dropped 36

degrees over a 24 hour period and the other earlier this month from

the 12th to the 13th when it dropped by 41 degrees F.

Outlook:

Some lingering snow flurries in eastern sections on Saturday morning,

with blowing snow elsewhere. Saturday's temperatures will likely

stay colder than normal, with some moderation on Sunday. Warming

trend continues on Monday, with a chance for mixed precipitation by

Tuesday in the southeast and light snow elsewhere. Temperatures

should remain on the mild side most of the week.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Jan 28, 2005

HEADLINES:

-National Weather Service on display

-Snow depth stabilizing soil temperatures

-Preliminary January climate summary

-question about snowy Februarys

-Almanac for January 28th

-the Jevon's effect

-Outlook

Topic: National Weather Service at Mall of America....

This weekend the Mall of America will host the Annual Government

on Display Expo showcasing the technologies and services

provided by over 40 of our federal agencies, including the

National Weather Service. Their booth will be located in the

Sam Goody Rotunda. The NWS booth will feature a Mini-Dopplar

Radar, a tornado simulator, NOAA Weather Radio, and a mock up

of a river control model. If you have an interest in weather

this is the place to go either on Saturday or Sunday.

Topic: Snow depth has stabilized soil freezing depth....

The recent snowfalls have sufficiently blanketed most of the

Minnesota landscape to help stabilize the depth of freezing in

the soil. Some recent frost depths taken around the state

range from 22 to 40 inches, with the shallower depths in areas

that have had deeper and longer snow cover so far this winter.

The following are reports of frost depth earlier this week...

Crookston 27 inches, Morris 25 inches, Lamberton 22 inches,

Waseca 28 inches, and St Paul 40 inches.

Topic: Preliminary January Climate Summary.....

Average monthly temperatures for January will be as much as 3 to

4 degrees F cooler than normal in northern and western areas of

Minnesota, near normal in the south. This correlates well with

where most of the snowfall occurred during the month. Temperature

extremes for the month were 53 degrees F at Pipestone on the 25th

and -54 degrees F at Embarrass on the 17th.

Most observers reported above normal precipitation for the month,

some places in excess of 2 inches, including Duluth. Speaking

of which the National Weather Service in Duluth reports nearly

45.5 inches of snowfall for the month, very near the record amount

for January of 46.8 inches set in 1968. In addition Babbitt

(northeastern St Louis County) and Wolf Ridge Environmental

Learning Center near Finland (Lake County) reported over 40 inches

of snowfall for the month. Many places reported at least 20 inches.

Wind gusts of over 40 mph were observed around the state on the

1st, the 18th, and both the 21st and 22nd. All produced much

blowing and drifting snow.

MPR listener question: Though last Friday's snowstorm caused

problems for many Twin Citians, it raised the hopes for some

of us who like to cross country ski. I am hoping that February

will bring a good deal of snow to the Twin Cities. What's

been the snowiest February here?

Answer: In 1962 February brought 26.5 inches of snowfall to the

Twin Cities, an all-time record for the month. Snowfall in

February has only exceeded 20 inches three times in the past

120 years, and it has exceed 15 inches only twelve times over

the same period. So based on climatology, it is difficult to

be optimistic about abundant snow in February. Still, most

remember that last February brought 19.7 inches.

Twin Cities Almanac for January 28th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 22 degrees F

(plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 4 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for January 28th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 47 degrees F in 1892; lowest daily maximum

temperature of -15 degrees F in 1966; lowest daily minimum

temperature of -26 degrees F in 1966; highest daily minimum

temperature of 34 degrees F in 1892; record precipitation

of 0.56 inches in 1909; and record snowfall of 4.1 inches in 1912.

There have been 30 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891.

Greatest snow depth on this date was 21 inches in both 1979 and

1982. The worst wind chill conditions occurred in 1977 with a

reading of -48 F.

Average dew point for January 28th is 4 degrees F, with a maximum

of 37 degrees F in 1914 and a minimum of -38 degrees F in 1966.

All-time state records for January 28th:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 57 degrees F at Lamberton in 1989; the all-time low is -50

degrees F at Pokegama Dam (Itasca County) in 1902 and also at

Baudette (Lake of the Woods County) in 1966. The heaviest snowfall

statewide on this date occurred in 1949 at Caledonia (Houston

County) when they recorded 12 inches. The all-time state record for

precipitation (liquid equivalent) on this date is 2.0 inches at

Tracy in 2003.

Words of the Week: Jevon's effect

This term refers to the disturbance in the distribution and

amount of rainfall or snowfall caused by the rain gage itself.

William Stanley Jevons, a 19th century English mathematician and

economist proposed in 1861 that the rain gage commonly used

for the measurement of precipitation produces a disturbance

in the air flowing past it, causing an irregularity in the

distribution and therefore the catch collected in the gage.

He showed that the loss of rainfall which would normally

have been caught by the gage is proportional to the wind speed.

Subsequent to his findings, the British developed a rain gage

which was mounted closer to the ground (approx 1 ft above the

surface) and another gage was developed which fit within a

hole such that the lip of the gage was flush with the surface

of the ground. Since that time several devices have been

invented to shield rain and snow gages from these effects of winds

and eddies interacting with the gage.

By the way, this is one of the few historical examples of

an economist making a significant contribution to the field

of climatology. Later in his career, Jevons became famous for

his applications of probability to economics and for his

description of the business cycle. To my knowledge, he is the

only economist recognized in the jargon of climatologists.

Outlook:

Chances for light snow on Saturday and Sunday, then generally dry

most of next week. Temperatures will average warmer than normal

for this time year.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Feb 4, 2005

HEADLINES:

- Foul air

- Odds and Ends

- Very small daily temperature ranges

- Almanac for February 4th

- What's a hydrolapse

- Outlook

Topic: Foul air....

The MPCA posted air quality alerts for the period Sunday

through Thursday this past week, mostly because of trapped

particulates in the lower atmosphere (soot). The poor air

quality was actually region wide, with Iowa, Illinois, and

Wisconsin posting similar alerts. All of these states reported

Air Quality Index (AQI) values ranging from 110 to 150,

indicating unhealthy air for citizens with diminished or

sensitive respiratory function. The Twin Cities actually

reported an AQI of 155, the highest since they implemented

this system of monitoring and forecasting. (see MPCA web site

http://aqi.pca.state.mn.us/hourly/index.cfm)

Trapped between two areas of high pressure, with little wind

movement and blanketed by a strong inversion layer, the lower

atmosphere over the state became more saturated with particulates

(soot) from industrial and auto emissions, as well as other

small particles. The inversion layer aloft was relatively

persistent and strong with temperatures on the order of 4 to

7 degrees F warmer at 4000 to 5000 ft than at the surface.

Such spells of weather are relatively uncommon for Minnesota.

The poor air quality is also associated with a higher incidence

of fog, haze, and warmer than normal overnight temperatures.

All of these were in evidence this week as well. Persistent

cloud cover and fog kept the daily temperature range narrow,

varying over just 3 to 6 degrees during a 24 hour period. The

average daily range in temperature for early February is about

15 to 17 degrees F.

Topic: A few weather odds and ends.....

On this date in 1835, soldiers at old Fort Snelling were

suffering from one of the coldest ever February periods, with

temperatures remaining below zero F for over 50 consecutive

hours, and later bottoming out at -30 degrees F. Wind chills

were probably in the -50 to -60 F range. This arctic outbreak

was both strong and large, later producing freezes in Florida

and Louisiana.

Though most of Minnesota has seen a mild spell dominate this

week, the Ground Hog Day report from Pennsylvania on Wednesday

of this week suggested six more weeks of winter. Our neighbors

just to the north have had a good dose of winter just this week,

with heavy snow and blizzard conditions reported over Manitoba.

Temperatures plummeted to the -30s F, with wind chill values of

-40 to -50 F. Austria and Greece too have seen strong winds

and snow this week, while parts of Russia have been just plain

cold. Kazakhstan reported lows of -40 F.

Those suffering from the winter blahs can take heart. Our journey

through the winter season has progressed over half way between

the winter solstice and spring equinox so that we are gaining

17-20 minutes in daylength each week now. This will become

especially noticeable during the morning and evening commute hours.

Some record high temperatures occurred on Thursday, February 3rd

around the region. The loss of snow cover combined with bright

sunshine, and warm south winds produced the following records..

Sioux Falls, SD 58 F, Little Falls, MN 50 F, St Cloud, MN 48 F,

and Duluth 44 F (tied record high for the date). MSP airport

missed tying the record high by one degree topping out at 50 F.

MPR listener question: It seems this time of year we have stretches

where the air temperature is almost constant for relatively long

periods. Recently, the daily temperature range has been rather

narrow, only a few degrees (examples: International Falls on Jan

31 with a high of 30 F and a low of 28 F, or Duluth on Feb 1 with

a high of 33 F and a low of 30 F). Have we ever had a day when the

temperature was constant all day long, giving a daily range of zero?

Answer: Such days have occurred historically but they are very rare.

For the temperature to be constant over a full 24 hour period, there

must be little wind and sunlight, as well as a relatively strong

inversion layer (with a low cloud ceiling or fog). I cannot find a

single case of a day with constant temperature in the Twin Cities

record. In fact there are only four cases back to 1891 when the

daily temperature range was only 1 degree F, most recently January

16, 1998 when the MSP airport reported a high of 23 F and a low

of 22 F. In all four cases there was low cloud, fog or haze, little

wind, and in some cases all day precipitation going on.

Elsewhere around the state there are a few cases of constant daily

temperature. At Rochester on February 18, 1984 the temperature

remained at 32 degrees F all day long with constant fog, ice fog,

or snow. Duluth too has reported days with constant temperature.

On November 25, 1973 the temperature was a constant 32 F with an

all day fog, while on December 13, 1974, the temperature remained

at 28 F all day with fog and snow.

Though rare historically, days with a daily temperature range of

only 5 degrees F or less tend to occur with a frequency of 10-12

times per year, favoring the months of November, December, January,

February and March. More often than not, this type of weather

produces temperatures that are just a few degrees above or below

the freezing mark (32 F).

Twin Cities Almanac for February 4th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 21 degrees F

(plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 5 degrees F (plus or minus 16 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 4th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 49 degrees F in 1925 and 1990; lowest daily maximum

temperature of -10 degrees F in 1895 and 1907; lowest daily minimum

temperature of -25 degrees F in 1893; highest daily minimum

temperature of 32 degrees F in 1954 and 1991; record precipitation

of 0.34 inches in 1955; and record snowfall of 4.4 inches in 1971.

There have been 28 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891.

Greatest snow depth on this date was 21 inches in both 1969 and

1979. The worst wind chill conditions occurred in 1917 with a

reading of -54 F.

Average dew point for February 4th is 6 degrees F, with a maximum

of 35 degrees F in 1925 and a minimum of -42 degrees F in 1947.

All-time state records for February 4th:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 61 degrees F at Browns Valley (Traverse County) in 1991;

the all-time low is -52 degrees F at Willow River (Pine County)

and Detroit Lakes (Becker County) in 1907. The heaviest snowfall

statewide on this date occurred in 1943 at Ortonville (Big Stone

County) when they recorded 12 inches. The all-time state record for

precipitation (liquid equivalent) on this date is 2.15 inches at old

Fort Ridgely (Nicollet County) along the Minnesota River in 1865.

Word of the Week: Hydrolapse

This is the term meteorologists use to refer to the pattern of

moisture in the vertical atmosphere, measured as the dew point.

Sometimes these changes in moisture aloft will be sudden or

rapid, forming a sharp boundary for cloud formation or dissipation.

For example, earlier this week under low level stratus clouds

blanketing the state, the upper boundary of the clouds was sharply

defined by a dry layer aloft where the dew point dropped by over

20 degrees F. Thus viewed from above, the tops of the clouds

formed a smooth uniform blanket.

Outlook:

Continuing with mild temperatures into the weekend, but with

increasing cloudiness later on Saturday and into Sunday and a

chance for rain and snow. Chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday

as well, along with a good dose of windiness. Colder temperatures

will prevail across the state next week returning the sting of

winter.....bundle up....

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Feb 11, 2005

HEADLINES:

-Birth of the Weather Service in 1870

-New Antarctica weather station

-February cold in Minnesota-a perspective

-Climatology of Valentine's Day

-Almanac for February 11th

-Bust or busted

-Outlook

Topic: Anniversary week for the National Weather Service

135 years ago this week (Feb 9, 1870) the National Weather

Service was born, formed by the passage of a joint Congressional

Resolution proposed by Congressman Halbert Paine of

Milwaukee and signed by President U.S. Grant. The impetus

for this effort initially was to provide coastal and Great

Lakes mariners with better information on what type of weather

they might encounter.

In the 19th Century the National Weather Service was called the

Signal Service and used telegraph lines to distribute daily

forecasts across the nation. These messages were called

"probabilities" or "indications" and were disseminated once per

day. They featured descriptions of sky conditions, pressure, wind,

and temperature expected over the next 24 hours. By 1888 they

expanded the forecast period to 36 hours, and in 1898 to 48 hours.

There were 24 Signal Service offices initially, but this expanded

to several hundered by 1878. Observations were taken three times

per day (early morning, late afternoon, and mid evening).

Today, there are about 120 National Weather Service Offices,

supplemented by thousands of automated weather observations

stations and thousands of volunteer cooperative weather observers.

The same type of information still flows, mostly by wireless

communications systems, and in many cases minute by minute or

hour by hour. If you want to know the weather right now for just

about any place in America, you can generally find it on the web.

Additionally if you want to know the forecast for the next 24 hours,

or even for the next 14 days you can find it for any place in

America on the web. (www.noaa.gov)

Topic: New weather station in Antarctica

A Chinese Polar Expedition Team last month scaled the highest

ice cap peak in Antarctica (Dome A Ice Cap) located at 80:22

degrees south latitude and 77:21 degrees east longitude. They

set up an automated weather station on the peak (13,255 ft)

that will make routine measurements of temperature, pressure,

wind, humidity, etc and transmit them to the Bureau of Meteorology

in China as well as in Australia. This certainly will be one

of the highest and coldest weather stations on Earth...why just

Thursday of this week, the Amundsen-Scott weather station at the

South Pole reported a high of -40 F and a low of -45 F...and bear

in mind it is summer there.

Topic: Minnesota cold February temperatures in perspective.....

Embarrass, MN went down to -25 degrees F this week, not unusual

for that community. But this week back in 1857, the first

measured temperatures of -50 F and colder were recorded in the

Minnesota Territory. The thermometer at Fort Ripley read -50 F

at 6 am on February 10, 1857, while further down the Mississippi

River at Little Falls it read -56 F. The reading at Fort Ripley

remained an all-time record low until -51 F was measured on

January 12, 1912. The reading of -56 F at Little Falls is still

unsurpassed in the record, with the coldest measurement since

being -46 F on February 16, 1936.

Of course Minnesota's two coldest temperatures ever measured

occurred in February: -59 F at Leech Lake on February 9, 1899;

and -60 F at Tower on February 2, 1996

MPR listener question: My wife is a real romantic. It's in her

genes. She says that her grandfather would take her grandmother

out for an evening sleigh ride every Valentine's Day when there

was fresh snow. My wife too loves it when it snows. What is

the climatology for Valentine's Day? How often does it snow?

Answer: In the Twin Cities Valentine's Day is known for being

snowy. There is some form of snow cover nearly 80 percent of

the time and it actually snows on February 14th about 1 year

out of every 4. It snowed 6.4 inches in 1950. It can also be quite

cold. Though the average high and low temperature are 25 F and 8 F,

respectively, it has been below zero 31 times on Valentine's Day

since 1891, bottoming out at -21 F in 1936. By the way that same

year (1936) Valentine's Day brought 22 inches of snow to Grand

Marais. Wonder if anybody got the sleigh out?

Twin Cities Almanac for February 11th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 24 degrees F

(plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 7 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 11th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 51 degrees F in 1961; lowest daily maximum

temperature of -15 degrees F in 1899; lowest daily minimum

temperature of -31 degrees F in 1899; highest daily minimum

temperature of 35 degrees F in 1908; record precipitation

of 0.28 inches in 1940 and 1965; and record snowfall of 4.1 inches

in 1979. There have been 27 measurable snowfalls on this date

since 1891. Greatest snow depth on this date was 20 inches in

both 1967 and 1969. The worst wind chill conditions occurred in

1917 with a reading of -40 F.

Average dew point for February 11th is 9 degrees F, with a maximum

of 36 degrees F in 1908 and a minimum of -35 degrees F in 1899.

All-time state records for February 11th:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 61 degrees F at Luverne (Rock County) in 1977; the all-time

low is -55 degrees F at Leech Lake Dam (Itasca County) 1899. The

heaviest snowfall statewide on this date occurred in 1939 at

Mahnomen when they recorded 14 inches. The all-time state record

for precipitation (liquid equivalent) on this date is 1.36 inches at

Fort Ripley (Crow Wing County) in 1861.

Words of the Week: Bust or busted

In the jargon used by forecasters, this has nothing but negative

connotations....a Bust (with a capital is a forecast, usually for

a significant event like a winter storm or severe thunderstorm,

that does not verify. A forecaster who calls for heavy snow or a

blizzard is really providing a headline that cannot be ignored by

the public. Consequently, when it doesn't happen it is quite an

embarrassment. A busted forecast on the other hand can also refer to

a single weather element. For example, sky conditions and temperatures

may be as predicted, but it will unexpectedly rain, ruining the

forecast.

Outlook:

Partly cloudy and mostly mild over the weekend with many temperatures

in the 30s, 40s, and 50s F. Chance of drizzle, light rain or snow

later on Sunday. Cooling trend on Monday and continuing next week

with a chance for snow on Tuesday. Temperatures will be a few degrees

either side of normal.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Feb 18, 2005

HEADLINES:

-New Seasonal Climate Outlook

-A February Day

-Cold Returns

-Wireless Weather Station

-Proposal for a World Weather Service

-Almanac for February 18

-Xeriscaping

-Outlook

Topic: New Seasonal Climate Outlook..March through May

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued its new seasonal

outlooks on Thursday of this week. For Minnesota, the

western counties are likely to see a trend toward warmer

than normal March temperatures, while the rest of the state

will have equal chances for warmer or colder than normal

temperatures during the period. In regard to moisture,

the outlook favors somewhat above normal precipitation

across the southern tier of counties and equal chances for

wetter or drier than normal conditions across the balance

of the state.

Topic: A wet day in February....

Following a weekend that brought some record setting high

temperatures last week, the skies opened up with rain and

snow late Sunday and into Monday (Valentine's Day) producing

some record setting amounts in places. The following locations

reported new record amounts of precipitation for February 13th.

Rochester 0.40 inches or precipitation and with 2.5 inches of

snow; Sioux Falls set a record of 0.90 inches of precipitation;

Faribault reported a record 0.80 inches of precipitation; New

Ulm reported a record 0.68 inches of precipitation; Lakefield

reported a record 0.65 inches of precipitation; Waseca reported

a record 1.05 inches of precipitation; and Zumbrota reported

a record 0.78 inches.

These values may seem modest, but bear in mind that February

is our driest month historically, and some of these precipitation

amounts are the equivalent of the monthly average!

Topic: Return to cold temperatures......

After a run of five consecutive days with temperatures well

above normal, cold air settled over Minnesota at mid-week

and brought several below zero readings to northern counties.

For just the second time this month, Minnesota reported the

coldest temperature in the contiguous 48 states on Friday

(Feb 18) morning with -36 F at Embarrass.....on the 8th of the

month Roseau had a similar distinction with a reading of -20 F.

Topic: New wireless weather stations....

Among the several new wireless weather stations available

for the home, Oregon Scientific has released one that not

only gives you the temperature outside, but it also serves

as an alarm clock and electronic calendar. With an easy

to read large LCD display, you can glance over with one eye

and decide whether to stay under the covers or get out of

bed and enjoy a nice, perhaps brisk, morning walk.

MPR listener question: (a 7th grader from Apple Valley

wrote with this one) I have heard you compare and contrast

the weather services of a number of countries, and also

heard you say that some countries do not have their own

weather service. Do you think that the world will ever

have one combined weather service that meets the forecasting

needs of everyone?

Answer: Actually, that very topic is being discussed at the

World Earth Observation Summit in Brussels, Belgium this

week. Leaders of government weather services are presenting

a proposal to link their observational networks, technologies,

and communications systems in such a way that they can

provide world wide watch and warning services for severe

weather events, and even tsunamis. It is an ambitious goal,

but given the recent disaster in the Indian Ocean and the

vulnerability of many societies to weather disasters perhaps

they will find ways to finance it and make it come to be.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 18th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 27 degrees F

(plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 11 degrees F (plus or minus 15 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 18th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 58 degrees F in 1981; lowest daily maximum

temperature of -7 degrees F in 1941; lowest daily minimum

temperature of -21 degrees F in 1903; highest daily minimum

temperature of 36 degrees F in 1915, 1998 and 2002; record

precipitation of 0.70 inches in 1961; and record snowfall of 7.0

inches also in 1961. There have been 27 measurable snowfalls on this

date since 1891. Greatest snow depth on this date was 27 inches in

1967. The worst wind chill conditions occurred in 1941 with a

reading of -45 F.

Average dew point for February 18th is 15 degrees F, with a maximum

of 42 degrees F in 1981 and a minimum of -29 degrees F in 1941.

All-time state records for February 18th:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 66 degrees F at Pipestone in 1981; the all-time low is

-48 degrees F at Roseau in 1966. The heaviest snowfall statewide on

this date occurred in 1962 at Worthington (Nobles County) where they

record 16 inches. The all-time state record for precipitation

(liquid equivalent) on this date is 1.80 inches at Black Duck

(Beltrami County) in 2004.

Word of the Week: Xeriscaping

Who's escaping? Just kidding. This term is used to describe

landscape planning and planting practices which strive to conserve

water by mulching, using soil amendments like compost or manure,

and by selecting species with low water requirements such that

they can thrive on natural precipitation for the most part. This

is not a common practice in Minnesota, but it has been tried in

the drier climates of North Dakota, some of the western states,

and especially the desert southwest. In some areas of the country

over half of the residential water use goes to watering landscape

plants and lawns. Xeriscaping has been shown to reduce water

usage by up to 70 percent in some cases.

Outlook:

Continuing cold on Saturday, then warmer and increasing cloudiness

on Sunday with a chance for snow, perhaps 2-6 inches in places. In

some eastern and northern areas snow may linger into Monday.

Generally cool and dry weather much of next week, with some warmer

temperatures by the end of the week.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Feb 25, 2005

HEADLINES:

-Correction to last week's precipitation report

-National Weather Service User Survey

-Dose of Winter for Europe and Asia

-Preliminary February Climate Summary

-Atmospheric Optics

-Atmospheric Pressure Records

-Almanac for February 25th

-Parry Arcs

-Outlook

Topic: Correction on last week's precipitation at Waseca

The new record precipitation value on February 13th (1.05 inches)

reported for Waseca last week was incorrect. The Research and

Outreach Center actually reported 0.60 inches, and though this is

high for the month of February, it is not a record amount.

Topic: National Weather Service User Survey

In the past the National Weather Service has conducted user

surveys for specific products such as aviation or marine

forecasts. For the first time they are conducting a survey

of the general public concerning all of their products.

This is your chance to give them some feedback and make

suggestions. I encourage you to take the online survey at

their web site. It takes about 10-12 minutes to complete.

Go to:

http://www.myfeedback.cfigroup.com/cgi-bin/qwebcorporate.dll?idx=R77JDH

Topic: Dose of Winter for Europe and Asia

While California storms have produced the weather headlines

in America this week, Asian and European nations have

been experiencing a severe dose of winter weather, for some

the worst in nearly two decades. In the Kashmir region

divided between Indian and Pakistan, heavy snowfall has

produced avalanches that have killed scores of people.

Afghanistan has been crippled by heavy snow and severe cold

as well. Across Europe, 4 to 8 inches of snow has fallen

across England and Scotland, while the Czech Republic

reported up to 16 inches. Air traffic was halted at France's

Orly Airport in order to clear snow from the runways and

over 200 flights were cancelled at Germany's Munich Airport.

Elsewhere, 12 inches of snow fell on Vienna and they even

had snow on the beach at Nice on the French Riveria. Good

luck to those taking a winter vacation there!

Topic: Preliminary Climate Summary for February

With more snow likely between now and the end of the month,

precipitation and snowfall totals are likely to go up.

Nevertheless certain climate characteristics of the month

can be highlighted.

Mean February temperature was above normal by 4 to 8 degrees F.

The extreme values ranged from a low of -36 degrees F at

Embarrass on the 18th to a high of 68 degrees F at Lamberton

on the 5th. The reading at Lamberton was within 5 degrees F

of the all-time state high for February of 73 degrees F at

Pleasant Mound in 1896.

Highest wind speeds, ranging between 30 and 40 mph, came on

the 5th, the warmest day of the month. Strong southerly

winds brought a good deal of water vapor as well, with

the dew point reaching as high as 37 degrees F in the Twin

Cities.

Total monthly precipitation for February was generally short

of normal in the northern counties and above normal in the

central and southern parts of the state. Many places reported

over 1 inch, and a few more than two inches. Snowfall values

varied considerably. Several places reported between 10 and 20

inches, including Duluth, Wabasha, Zumbro Falls, Two Harbors,

and Finland. But it looks like the last weekend of this month

may bring further significant snows to some of these areas.

MPR listener question: I was out walking my dog and thought I

saw northern lights, but then realized they were columns of

vertical light showing up over bright sources of light on the

horizon, some coming from a nearby ski hill. Because it was

so cold I wondered if this was due to ice cystals in the air.

Is that the explanation?

Answer: What I think you saw were light pillars from artificial

lights on the ground rather than from moonlight or sunlight.

These vertical shafts of light are indeed seen in cold air

when there are suspended ice crystals near the surface that

reflect the light in specific ways. The ice crystals are

usually horizontally oriented hexagonal plates, whose faces

reflect the unshielded light coming up from below and send it

back downward, making it appear as a shaft. The depth of the

layer of suspended ice crystals can be hundreds to thousands

of feet and consequently the vertical shafts of light can

appear to be quite tall. Like sun pillars and moon pillars,

these shafts of light are more visible in the evening or

pre dawn of the morning when the air is still.

More information on the optical properties of ice crystals

in the atmosphere can be found on the following web sites..

http://www.sundog.clara.co.uk

http://meted.ucar.edu/norlat/snow/micro_ice/1.1.crystal_growth.htm

MPR listener question: What are the state records for lowest and

highest atmospheric pressure and how do they compare to world

record values? What is the associated weather?

Answer: For Minnesota, the highest atmospheric pressure of 31.11

inches occurred at Collegeville on January 21, 1922,accompanied

by a very cold (-22 F), clear, and calm night associated with

an arctic air mass. The lowest pressure of 28.40 inches occurred

at Grand Portage on January 11, 1975, accompanied by strong winds

(40 to 50 mph) and heavy rain (over two inches).

The world record for highest atmospheric pressure is 32.06 inches

on December 19, 2001, at Tosontsengel, Mongolia, under an arctic

air mass that brought temperatures in the -60 to -70 F range.

The lowest atmospheric pressure ever measured was 25.69 inches

on Oct. 12, 1979, in the eye of Super Typhoon Tip, when it was

520 miles northwest of Guam in the northwestern Pacific Ocean.

It brought winds up to 190 mph.

Twin Cities Almanac for February 25th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 29 degrees F

(plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 11 degrees F (plus or minus 13 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for February 25th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 58 degrees F in 1976; lowest daily maximum

temperature of 2 degrees F in 1934; lowest daily minimum

temperature of -23 degrees F in 1967; highest daily minimum

temperature of 42 degrees F in 2000; record precipitation of 0.63

inches in 1944; and record snowfall of 4.8 inches in 2001. There

have been 27 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891. Greatest

snow depth on this date was 27 inches in 1967. The worst wind

chill conditions occurred in 1919 with a reading of -35 F.

Average dew point for February 25th is 14 degrees F, with a maximum

of 40 degrees F in 1930 and a minimum of -30 degrees F in 1967.

All-time state records for February 25th:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 66 degrees F at Beardsley (Big Stone County) in 1958; the

all-time low is -50 degrees F at Leech Lake Dam (Cass County) in

1897. The heaviest snowfall statewide on this date occurred in

2001 at Wolf Ridge Environmental Learning Center near Finland

(Lake County) where they recorded 19 inches. The all-time state

record for precipitation (liquid equivalent) on this date is 2.28

inches at Cass Lake (Cass County) in 1930.

Words of the Week: Parry arcs

First reported and studied by Sir William Edward Parry in the early

19th Century, these arcs of light which sometimes form halos are

seen in the early morning or late evening when the sun is near or

below the horizon. Parry studied them when he was ice bound in

the Arctic Ocean while searching for the Northwest Passage in 1820.

The arc or halo effect is produced by the light that is refracted

through horizontally-oriented column ice-crystals. These crystals

are hexagonal, with angled surfaces that produce prism structures.

They are rare and most often seen at high latitudes. The arcs may

be concave or convex in form.

Outlook:

Partly to mostly cloudy on Saturday with warmer than normal

temperatures. Then rain and snow will develop around the state

late in the day and into Sunday. Significant lake-effect snow may

fall along the Lake Superior landscape Sunday night into Monday.

Most of next week will see temperatures that are cooler than normal,

with a warming trend beginning on Thursday.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[The_Duckslayer]

Ahhhh... so that is where you go to find out what the Scurs have to say. Things that make ya go Hmmmmmm. Take care and N Joy the Hunt././Jimbo

[Dotch]

How do you know it isn't the other way around? Scurs? Methinks you're speaking in tongues...again. Skipping work today? lol!

[The_Duckslayer]

Nope, werkin from home! Ah the joys and curses of the computer age! No fish this morning either! Dang it, I am thinking that I need to get a power auger so that I dont get so [PoorWordUsage]ed out drilling all them holes with no fish in them! Have a good one and N Joy the Hunt././Jimbo

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Mar 4, 2005

HEADLINES:

-March is a wild month weatherwise

-A salute to Don Baker

-Lions and lambs in March

-Almanac for March 4th

-The Water Tower of Europe

-Outlook

Topic: March can be wild......

Minnesota has reported the coldest temperature in the 48

contiguous states on the first three days this month:

-18 F at Cook on the 1st, -33 F at Embarrass on the 2nd,

and -25 F at Tower and Embarrass on the 3rd.

Well we're all familiar with March, probably the most

varied month of weather in Minnesota......and the windiest

celebration day on the calendar, St Patrick's Day on the 17th.

Consider what March has offered to us in years past.....

Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes (14 in 1998)

Severe blizzards including March 14, 1941 and March 4, 1966

-50 degrees F at Pokegama Dam in 1897

88 degrees F at Montevideo in 1910

75 inches of snow on the ground at Grand Portage in 1950

A 29 inch snow storm at Karlstad in 1966

A monthly total of 66.5 inches of snow at Collegeville in 1965

In dry winters prairie and forest fires

In wet winters spring floods

I always hope for a quiet, dull March, but it never happens.

Topic: Honoring a friend and colleague

This Friday, March 4th the University of Minnesota Board of

Regents will honor Dr. Don Baker with the Outstanding

Achievement Award for a lifetime of research, teaching and

service to the university and the greater Minnesota community.

Don is the man who hired me back in the 1970s and also the

one who mentored my professional development.

Don Baker has a 66 year relationship with the university,

beginning as a high school student in 1939.

He founded the climatology program at the university,

serving on the faculty from 1958 to 1994. He published

scores of scientific articles, including the Climate of Minnesota

series, which is still the best description of the state's

climate.

He also founded the St Paul Climate Observatory in 1960. A

feature of the St Paul Campus that continues today to record

all of the most relevant climate data on a daily basis.

It was Don's study of the state's winds in the 1970s and early

1980s that provided the fundamental knowledge to deploy the

wind turbines that generate electricity in western Minnesota.

Minnesota ranks third among states in the utilization of this

sustainable energy resource.

Aside from all of his scientific accomplishments, Don has been

a role model to many university students and faculty members.

He is truly a gentlemen and a scholar of the first order.

Congratulations to him.

MPR listener question: I have always been told if March comes

in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb. What is the

historical performance of this old saying?

Answer: Actually, I examined this old saying using the Twin

Cities climate records and found little evidence to support it.

My criteria were if the month started stormy or bitterly cold on

the first two days, did it end quietly or with pleasant warmth

on the last two days. I used a significant temperature departure

beyond one standard deviation as my yardstick, as well as the

occurrence of precipitation in the form of rain or snow.

Since 1891, I found only 15 cases where the March climate pattern

conformed to this old saying. So that's a rather small percentage.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 4th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 33 degrees F

(plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 17 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 4th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 61 degrees F in 1983 and 2000; lowest daily maximum

temperature of 8 degrees F in 1917; lowest daily minimum

temperature of -26 degrees F in 1865; highest daily minimum

temperature of 50 degrees F in 1894; record precipitation of 0.80

inches in 1984; and record snowfall of 9.6 inches in 1984. There

have been 31 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891. Greatest

snow depth on this date was 24 inches in 1962. The worst wind

chill conditions occurred in 1917 with a reading of -30 F.

Average dew point for March 4th is 16 degrees F, with a maximum

of 53 degrees F in 1983 and a minimum of -17 degrees F in 1978.

All-time state records for March 4th:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 70 degrees F at Currie (Murray County) in 1905 and at

Luverne (Rock County) in 2000; the all-time low is -43 degrees F

at Bagley (Clearwater County) in 1917. The heaviest snowfall

statewide on this date occurred in 1966 at Isabella (Lake County)

where they recorded 26 inches. The all-time state record for

precipitation (liquid equivalent) on this date is 3.54 inches

in that same storm at Isabella.

Words of the Week: "The water tower of Europe"

These words are used to describe the country of Switzerland,

specifically the Swiss Alps which serve as a source region for

many of Europe's great rivers. Many major watersheds in

Germany, France, Austria, and Italy are fed by the spring and

summer runoff from the Swiss Alps. These waters are vital

to the European community in terms of hydroelectric power

generation, agricultural and municipal water supply, and

recreation.

Outlook:

Increasing cloudiness on Sunday with a chance for snow and

perhaps freezing drizzle. Some chance for light snow continuing

into Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise generally a quiet period.

Temperatures will near normal for this time of year. There will

be a better chance for snow later next week.

most of next week.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Mar 11, 2005

HEADLINES:

- Warm March 6th

- Sources of soot

- Climate impact on 2004 crop yields

- Wind characteristics of SW Minnesota

- Almanac for March 11th

- Foley weather effects

- Outlook

Topic: Remarkably warm March 6th.....

Sunday, March 6th brought a teasing glimpse of spring to most

of the state. Southerly breezes and plenty of sunshine

brought us the 3rd warmest March 11th in Minnesota history.

Scores of communites reported temperatures in the 60s, about

20-25 degrees warmer than normal, with both Canby and Fairmont

reporting 70 degrees F. Only 1987 and 2000 brought warmer

temperatures on March 11th.

The warm day produced some interesting human reactions:

tennis players taking to the courts; skiers out in shorts

and short-sleeve shirts, motorcyclists on the highways,

and kite flying in some of the city parks.

Topic: Source of poor air quality in South Asia

Having endured at least two episodes of poor air quality

here in the Twin Cities this winter due to high concentrations

of small particulates (soot) in the lower atmosphere, I was

intrigued by the article in Science magazine last week about

sources of soot in India. It seems that soot is a major

pollutant in that area and much of it comes from the burning

of wood, agricultural wastes, and dried animal manure for cooking.

Conversion to cleaner cooking technologies over time will likely

help mitigate this situation in India. The major sources of

soot in our Minnesota environment are likely fossil fuel

combustion involving power generation, industrial processing,

or transportation, none of which can be mitigated by cleaner

cooking technologies.

Topic: Why such good crop yields in 2004?

With the coolest growing season in quite some time and widespread

frost across the state in August last year, many agronomists

were puzzled by the very high yields achieved by major crops

in the region, notably corn and soybeans. A recent analysis

from the Midwest Climate Center in Illinois attributes much

of the production achievement to improved plant genetics and

farming practices, but also points out an unappreciated climate

feature of last summer that likely contributed to the high

yields as well: MORE SUNSHINE. It seems that clear days were

in great abundance across the region last summer as a result

of the dominance of cool, dry, Canadian high pressure systems.

In fact the combination of cool air temperatures and clear sky

conditions had not been seen to the same extent since 1927!

Historically, most summers with frequent clear days were

associated with summer droughts.

The amount of sunshine in September 2004 was exceptional for

finishing crops as St Paul, Lamberton, and Waseca all reported

solar radiation values for the month that were 10-12 percent

above their respective historical averages. In addition, the

National Weather Service reported over 76 percent possible sunshine

in September compared to a historical average of only 62 percent.

MPR listener question: From a southwestern Minnesota resident,

a question comes about which months are the windiest and

historically what time of year does the most wind erosion occur?

Answer: Using historical data from Marshall, Redwood Falls, and

Windom all three show that based on average wind speeds April

is the windiest month of the year, showing an average between 12

and 13 mph. Across the other seasons of the year, January is the

windiest of the winter months, November of the fall months, and

June of the summer months.

In terms of soil erosion due to high wind speeds, April and

November are historically the months when wind blown soil can

be observed particularly in dry seasons. These are months when

soil is often exposed and unprotected by snow cover. The dominant

trajectory for wind blown soil during these months is from the

northwest, as wind speeds in excess of 23 mph (10 m/s) required

to move soil particles show a statistical frequency spike

during these times.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 11th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 37 degrees F

(plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 21 degrees F (plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 11th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 61 degrees F in 1822 and 1902; lowest daily maximum

temperature of 6 degrees F in 1906; lowest daily minimum

temperature of -27 degrees F in 1948; highest daily minimum

temperature of 45 degrees F in 1977; record precipitation of 1.30

inches in 1990; and record snowfall of 8.2 inches in 1962. There

have been 27 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891. Greatest

snow depth on this date was 22 inches in 1979. The worst wind

chill conditions occurred in 1948 with a reading of -43 F.

Average dew point for March 11th is 20 degrees F, with a maximum

of 50 degrees F in 1990 and a minimum of -34 degrees F in 1948.

All-time state records for March 11th:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 66 degrees F at Marshall (Lyon County) in 1990; the all

-time low is -41 degrees F at Moose Lake (Carlton County) in 1948.

The heaviest snowfall statewide on this date occurred in 1897 at

both New London (Kandiyohi County) and Sauk Center (Stearns County)

where they recorded 16 inches. The all-time state record for

precipitation (liquid equivalent) on this date is 3.00 inches at

Waseca in 1918, this was accompanied by thunder and lightning,

followed by blizzard conditions that left large drifts.

Words of the Week: Foley weather effects

Jack Foley was a Universal Studios motion picture sound effects

legend in the 20th Century. He died in 1967. But he pioneered

sound effects for the motion picture industry, including weather

sounds. Sometimes outdoor scenes were shot to capture images

that were made more stunning or menacing by the weather. But on

occasion the weather would cooperate in producing the proper visual

image, but not the associated sound effects. Jack Foley was able

to go into the post production editing process and produce sounds

that were appropriate to the weather depicted on film, including

thunder, wind, hail, splashing, etc. Today, nearly all weather

sounds are available in recorded clips and can be plugged into various

audio and visual media productions to add effect.

Outlook:

A cool period of weather coming up. Chance for snow and snow

showers over the weekend, in the south on Saturday and north on

Sunday, both days should show a good deal of wind. Then

remaining cool into next week with below normal temperatures.

Another chance for snow on St Patrick's Day (Mar 17) and Friday.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Genofish]

What's the point??

[knoppers]

spring will happen, my guess mid april. I was thinking early ice out this year, but now I am thinking it will be late ice out, mepps

[Dotch]

With little or no snow cover, my guess is you're right about the timing of spring at least in the agricultural part of the state. Would guess ice out here to be sometime during the latter part of the 3rd full week to the last week in March, not unlike the past several years. Soils are saturated however across much of south central and south east MN which could make for slow going for farmers given an untimely rain or two. Let's hope it leaves us alone through pheasant nesting season for a change. Off topic here knoppers, but do you know a guy by the name of Bert Kulhem at Pallisade? Just curious...

[Dotch]

Snowy ol' forenoon today in SC MN. We've got somewhere in the neighborhood of 12" on the ground in greater Bugtussle and the radar looks like more snow for the afternoon. Got the chores done tho and had to come into town to see how bad it is out in the hinterlands. Appears by about 11 bells it might be getting worse enough to go home. Gee, wonder what time the Gophers are on?

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Mar 18, 2005

HEADLINES:

- Remembering March of 1951, the snowiest

- 80th anniversary of the Tri-State Tornado

- Golf in Greenland

- March brings mixed precipitation types

- Almanac for March 18th

- Keck's Swamp Angel of the 19th Century

- Outlook

Topic: March of 1951 is still remembered.....

Much of the weather lore related to Minnesota State High School

Tournaments and troublesome weather dates back to March of 1952,

when up to 14 inches of snow fell during the boys basketball

tournament week making team travel extremely difficult. But in

the preceding year, 1951, March delivered perhaps the snowiest

month of weather ever seen around the state, with heavy snows

before and after the boys high school basketball tournament.

What a month it was. St Cloud reported at least a trace of

snowfall on 23 days during the month, while the Twin Cities

recorded measurable snowfall on 15 days. Alexandria reported

42 consecutive hours of snowfall over the 17th and 18th, while

Marshall and Windom recorded 16 inches of snow over those dates,

with winds up to 50 mph. All of the major highways in Minnesota

were closed, including Hwy 212, Hwy 12, Hwy 10, Hwy 14, Hwy 61,

and Hwy 52.

Some snowfall totals for the March of 1951 included....

Bird Island 41.8 inches Campbell 40 inches

Montevideo 44 inches Morris 46.5 inches

New London 48 inches New Ulm 40 inches

Tracy 40 inches Wheaton 42.3 inches

Willmar 44.6 inches Farmington 43 inches

Grand Meadow 42.5 inches Jordan 45.9 inches

Maple Plain 43.1 inches Minneapolis 40.0 inches

Rosemount 49.8 inches Waseca 41 inches

The statewide average monthly snowfall was nearly 30 inches.

Roads in the Wheaton area were closed for 11 days. Numerous

roofs collapsed as a result of snowload, and the heavy snow

set up spring flooding on Minnesota's major watersheds in

the spring.

Topic: 80th Anniversary for one of America's worst tornadoes

On this date (March 18) in 1925, some residents of Missouri,

Illinois, and Indiana probably thought the world was coming

to an end. The famous Tri-State tornado was crossing those

states, along a 219 mile path over a period of 3.5 hours,

from 1:00 to 4:30 pm. This F-5 storm (winds near 300 mph)

damaged or destroyed 19 communities and killed 695 people.

The vortex varied from 1/2 mile to 1 mile in diameter. It caused

the greatest loss of life of any historically documented

tornadoes in the USA.

Topic: A unique golf experience in Greenland

There is an article in the current edition of Weatherwise

magazine that describes the "northernmost ice-free accredited

18-hole golf course on Earth. It is the Sondie Arctic Desert

Golf Course in Greenland. The 6040 yard, par 72 course was

built in 1990. Located near Kangerhussuaq off the edge of

the Greenland ice sheet. at 67 degrees north latitude, 35 miles

north of the Arctic Circle, this course has a mobile home for a

club house. The course has no turf, but is built on groomed

glacial alluvial sand deposits. You carry around a piece of

Astroturf to place your ball on for every shot, until you putt

on the sandy "greens." In the summer, you can tee off anytime,

because the course never needs watering and the sun is out all

of the time! Be sure to bring sun block and sun glasses.

MPR listener question: Is March the month of the year when we

get the greatest variety of precipitation in the Twin Cities

area? It seems we get about every form of precipitation during

this month.

Answer: Yes, indeed, I agree with you. There are other months

that get more snow, hail, freezing rain, and thunderstorms, but

for variety, based on historical data March can deliver just

about anything.

The average number of days with snowfall in March is 6 to 7;

the average number of thunderstorms is 1; the frequency of

freezing rainfall is once every five years; and frequency of

hail is about one year in ten. The overall frequency for any

form of precipitation during March is about one day in every

three.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 18th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 39 degrees F

(plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 23 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 18th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 73 degrees F in 1842; lowest daily maximum

temperature of 3 degrees F in 1923; lowest daily minimum

temperature of -8 degrees F in 1923; highest daily minimum

temperature of 48 degrees F in 1968; record precipitation of 1.07

inches in 1968; and record snowfall of 9.6 inches in 1951. There

have been 21 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891. Greatest

snow depth on this date was 27 inches in 1951. The worst wind

chill conditions occurred in 1923 with a reading of -37 F.

Average dew point for March 18th is 23 degrees F, with a maximum

of 50 degrees F in 1921 and a minimum of -14 degrees F in 1923.

All-time state records for March 18th:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 84 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1921; the

all-time low is -48 degrees F at Sawbill Camp (Cook County) in 1939,

where they had 63 inches of snow on the ground. The heaviest snowfall

statewide on this date occurred in 1933 at Albert Lea where they

recorded 20 inches. The all-time state record for precipitation

(liquid equivalent) on this date is 2.48 inches at Collegeville

Stearns County) in 1903, delivered by two separate thunderstorms,

one of which included hail.

Words of the Week: Keck's Swamp Angel

Though not a meteorological term, this device is climate related.

In the late 19 Century (a relatively wet period climatically) when

Minnesota farmers were always plagued by wet and ponded soils in

the spring that postponed their ability to get crops planted,

pioneer settler Harry Keck devised a deep plow that would assist in

cutting drainage ditches to allow the excess water to run off.

This device was also used to drain a number of wetland areas in

the state.

It was very heavy and difficult to pull through the soil. He

had to use a team of 20 oxen. But it accomplished its purpose and

was used throughout southern and central Minnesota on wetland soils.

The term Swamp Angel may have been derived because of the enormous

weight of the plow, perhaps approaching the 8 ton weight of the

Swamp Angel cannons used in the Civil War.

Outlook:

Recovery from a very wet, windy, and snowy Friday (10-15 inches of

snow in the forecast for southern counties) will slowly begin

on Saturday, with some lingering flurries and wind. Sunday will

be sunnier and a bit warmer. Temperatures will average a few degrees

warmer than normal next week, with another chance for showers by

Thursday. Daytimes highs in the 40s F will likely make the snow

cover in southern Minnesota short-lived.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Mar 25, 2005

HEADLINES:

- Classes Without Quizzes

- March 18th snow storm

- Hurricane track forecasts

- Easter Sunday climatology

- Almanac for March 25th

- Soundings

- Outlook

Topic: Classes Without Quizzes on April 2nd....

The College of Agricultural, Food, and Environmental Sciences will

be hosting the Annual Classes Without Quizzes on Saturday, April 2nd

from 8:30 am to 2:00 pm on the St Paul Campus. I will be presenting

a lecture at 9:00 am entitled "Torrid, Tornadic, and Traumatic:

Perceptions and Trends in Minnesota's Severe Weather." There will be

other sessions during the morning on pet nutrition, renewable energy,

tax law, woody plants and gardening, dietary supplements, improved

crops, and food safety. The event is open to the public and just $20

for adults, $15 for alumni, and $10 for students. More information

can be found at the COAFES web site: http://www.coafes.umn.edu/cwq

or by calling (612)-624-1745.

Topic: Final comments on snow storm of March 18, 2005

Kiester in Faribault County reported a grand total of 21 inches of

snowfall last Friday, March 18th, breaking the statewide record

for that date, formerly held by Albert Lea where it snowed 20 inches

in 1933. Numerous locations in southern Minnesota reported between

15 and 20 inches, including Rochester which reported an all-time

single date record of 19.8 inches. For several locations, that storm

will be noted as one of the heaviest falls of snow ever in the

month of March, yet coming in essentially a snow deprived winter.

Topic: Hurricane track forecasts to remain as a drawn line

NOAA administrators attending the National Hurricane Conference

this week in New Orleans reported that survey results suggested

that they keep using the narrow black line on a map to depict

their best estimate of a hurricane track. This method was

criticized last year, especially when Hurricane Charely took a

sharp right turn in its path, diverting away from the Tampa, FL

area and striking instead into Punta Gorda. It seems the public

should perceive that any storm path forecast probably has error

bands of 100 miles on either side of the line. Certainly

Minnesotans understand this to be the case with the forecasted

track of winter storms, so why should it not be implied in hurricane

track forecasts as well?

MPR listener question: What is the climatology of Easter Sunday

in the Twin Cities area? I know that the date varies considerably,

but what can you tell us about the historical weather on Easter

Sunday.

Answer: Indeed, the date of Easter has varied from March 23rd to

April 25th, and we can certainly have huge differences in weather

across such a range of dates. On average a March date for Easter

Sunday brings highs in the 40s F and lows in the 20s F. Since

the establishment of the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities

in 1891, Easter Sunday has occurred in March twenty-five times. Of

those dates, eight have been wet, and six have brought snowfall,

the most 2.5 inches on March 31, 1929.

Since 1891, Easter Sunday has occurred in April 89 times. By the

way it has never occurred on April 24th, but has occurred once as

late as April 25th in 1943. Of the April Easter Sundays, 27 have

been wet, and 4 have brought snowfall. Two Easter Sundays have

seen thunderstorms in the Twin Cities area, both 1941 and 1998.

Average daytime highs for Easter Sunday in April are in the 50s

and 60s F, with lows in the 40s.

Climate extremes for Easter Sunday include a high of 88 degrees F

on April 10, 1977, a low of -2 degrees F on March 25, 1894, and

a maximum total precipitation of 0.49 inches on April 13, 1941.

The last dense fog on Easter was in 1993, and the worst wind chill

conditions were in 1894 and 1920 when readings of -15 degrees F

were noted. Looking for Easter eggs was difficult in 1975 as there

was still 10 inches of snow on the ground Easter Sunday, March 30th.

Twin Cities Almanac for March 25th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 45 degrees F

(plus or minus 14 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 28 degrees F (plus or minus 11 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for March 25th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 78 degrees F in 1939; lowest daily maximum

temperature of 12 degrees F in 1955; lowest daily minimum

temperature of -8 degrees F in 1867; highest daily minimum

temperature of 51 degrees F in 1945; record precipitation of 1.43

inches in 1890; and record snowfall of 3.6 inches in 1996. There

have been 14 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891. Greatest

snow depth on this date was 20 inches in 1951. The worst wind

chill conditions occurred in 1894 and 1955 with a reading of -20 F.

Average dew point for March 25h is 24 degrees F, with a maximum

of 58 degrees F in 1945 and a minimum of -12 degrees F in 1955.

All-time state records for March 25th:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 83 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) and Tracy

(Lyon County) in 1939; the all-time low is -31 degrees F at Bigfork

(Itasca County) in 1965. The heaviest snowfall statewide on this

date occurred in 1914 at Bemidji where they recorded 14 inches. The

all-time state record for precipitation (liquid equivalent) on this

date is 3.31 inches at Halstad (Norman County) in 1996.

Word of the Week: Sounding

This term derives from both Latin and Anglo Saxon terms meaning

to submerge something in order to detect depth. In meteorology

the term sounding refers to an upper air observation or a complete

radiosonde report. Balloons equipped with instrumentation are

launched twice each day (12 hours apart) from upper air stations.

There are over 900 such stations scatterd around the world.

They transmit back data about temperature, pressure, wind, and

humidity as they pass through various vertical layers of the

atmosphere. These are referred to as radiosondes. Another type of

balloon is a rawinsonde, which carries no instruments, but is

tracked by either radar or a radio direction finder such that

wind direction and speed aloft can be plotted for various vertical

layers.

Radiosondes provide the basic data that feed into forecast models.

These balloons rise to heights of 80,000 to 100,000 feet before they

burst. A small parachute allows for the instrument package to fall

to Earth and not be destroyed. Sometimes farmers and others find

the instrument package in their fields. There are instructions on

the container to mail the package back to the government so the

instruments can be reconditioned and reused.

Outlook:

A warming trend begins this weekend with highs in the 40s for Easter

Sunday, then even warmer next week. There is a slight chance for snow

showers in the far north later on Sunday. Warm temperatures much of

next week with a chance for showers on Tuesday and Thursday, may be

even some thunderstorms.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Apr 1, 2005

HEADLINES:

- Daylight Savings Time coming up

- Deb Brown retires

- Last call for Classes Without Quizzes

- March climate summary

- When is it too warm to snow?

- Almanac for April 1st

- Awha, is it a baby's cry?

- Outlook

Topic: New Clock and New Sports Season Starts on Sunday

Daylight Savings Time begins Saturday night. Don't forget

to set your clock ahead one hour. For those who like to do

things outdoors in the evening this will be a blessing as

the evening light will be with us until 7:30 to 8:00 pm.

The Major League Baseball season begins on Sunday evening

with last year's champ's the Boston Red Sox visiting the

New York Yankees. The weather in New York for the opening

weekend looks rather stormy but perhaps the rains will have

ended by Sunday night. A full slate of American League

games begins on Monday, including the Twins first game

at Seattle in the afternoon. The nation's weather on Monday

looks like it will be far more cooperative for baseball

games in most places.

Topic: Best Wishes to the Garden Guri, Deb Brown in retirement

I want to express gratitude and best wishes to Deb Brown on the

occasion of her retirement from the Extension Service. She has

been a terrific educator and ambassador for our organization.

I want to also acknowledge that she has been a role model for

me in terms of partnering with the broadcast media and doing

public outreach. I understand that she intends to carry on

with her Mid-Morning monthly program on gardening at MPR...

thank goodness for that.

Topic: Last Call for Classes Without Quizzes on April 2nd....

The College of Agricultural, Food, and Environmental Sciences will

be hosting the Annual Classes Without Quizzes on Saturday, April 2nd

(tomorrow) from 8:30 am to 2:00 pm on the St Paul Campus. I will

be presenting a lecture at 9:00 am entitled "Torrid, Tornadic, and

Traumatic: Perceptions and Trends in Minnesota's Severe Weather."

How timely since we just had the first tornadoes of 2005 reported

in southern Minnesota on Wednesday (March 30) of this week.

If interested, you can still sign up or show up on Saturday.

More information about Saturday's program can be found at the

COAFES web site: http://www.coafes.umn.edu/cwq or by calling

(612)-624-1745.

Topic: March 2005 Climate Summary

Many are grateful to see the month of March end. It was a windy,

cloudy, and cool month across most parts of the state.

March average temperatures ranged from near normal to 4 degrees F

cooler than normal. Extremes for the month were 73 degrees F at

Wheaton and Ortonville on the 29th and -30 degrees F on the 8th

at Embarrass. Minnesota reported the coldest temperature in the

48 contiguous states eleven times during the month.

March precipitation totals were generally less than normal most

places. Over 1 inch less than normal in many northern counties

and a few tenths shy of normal in many southern communites. A few

communites in southern Minnesota reported above normal precipitation.

Thanks to the thunderstorms on March 30th, some areas in the

southeast reported over 2 inches of rain, particularly from Hastings

through Red wing and south of Lake City. Flash flooding was reported

in a number of places, along with hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter.

A section of Hwy 61 in SE Minnesota was closed due to flooding for

a time. Two tornadoes were reported on March 30th as well, the first

two of the year. One occurred in Olmsted County near Chester along

Hwy 14 and took the roof off a barn. The other tornado, yet unconfirmed

was reported near Adams in Mower County and destroyed two barns.

Winds were strong in March, with gusts of 55-60 mph in SW counties

on the 10th associated with a strong cold front, and winds of 50-55

mph on the 30th in SE counties associated with thunderstorms.

As of March 31st there was still frost reported in many soils, but

the top 12 to 18 inches had thawed out and was absorbing moisture

from the recent rains.

MPR listener question: When does it become too warm to snow?

Have there been any cases of snow falling at surface air temperatures

in the 40s F?

Answer: I had not previously considered this question and since

we are nearing the end of the snow season, it is quite relevant.

Examining the National Weather Service hourly climate data for

the Twin Cities I can find a number of cases when snow has fallen

with air temperatures in the mid to high 30s F. In fact we have

accumulated snowfall as much as 5.5 inches in air temperatures of

33-34 degrees F.

The warmest temperature I can find with snowfall occurring was

41 degrees F on May 2, 1976. The cloud ceiling was low, as was

the dew point which was only 22 degrees F. So the snow was

falling through relatively dry air out of the cloud base.

Nevertheless, the snowflakes didn't melt right away and accumulated

to a depth of 1.2 inches on the ground. May snowfall is very rare

in the Twin Cities and this one undoubtedly put the brakes on

the gardening activity.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 1st:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 47 degrees F

(plus or minus 10 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 29 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 1st:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 82 degrees F in 1882; lowest daily maximum

temperature of 22 degrees F in 1896; lowest daily minimum

temperature of 9 degrees F in 1975; highest daily minimum

temperature of 51 degrees F in 1999; record precipitation of 0.54

inches in 1967; and record snowfall of 4.6 inches in 2002. There

have been 15 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891. Greatest

snow depth on this date was 10 inches in 1975 and 1985.

Average dew point for April 1st is 27 degrees F, with a maximum

of 61 degrees F in 1903 and a minimum of -2 degrees F in 1975.

All-time state records for April 1st:

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 85 degrees F at Winona in 1986; the all-time low is -21

degrees F at Thorhult (just north of the Red Lakes in Beltrami

County) in 1975. The heaviest snowfall statewide on this date

occurred in 1985 at Hastings where they recorded 15 inches. The

all-time state record for precipitation (liquid equivalent) on this

date is 2.17 inches at Red wing in 1998.

Word of the Week: Awha

This is the name of the storm god in Polynesian culture. Obviously

tropical storms visit the Polynesian settlements in the Pacific

Ocean with some regularity and can be very destructive. This word

reminds me of a baby's cry.

Outlook:

Partly cloudy and spring like with highs in the 50s and 60s F for

much of the weekend and next week. Breezy with a chance for showers

in the northeast Saturday, then increasing cloudiness later on Sunday

with a chance for showers and thunderstorms spreading across the state

and lasting into Tuesday. Even warmer later next week.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

To: MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Apr 8, 2005

HEADLINES:

- Water is a theme for April events

- The April blizzard of 1973

- Weather for the Master's Golf Tournament

- Question about sunrise/sunset times

- Almanac for April 8th

- Precipitable water

- Outlook

Topic: Theme of "Water" prevails this month

The importance of water is being stressed at a number of public

venues this month. Cleaning up and better managing Minnesota's

water resources has certainly been stressed by Governor

Pawlenty. In addition, with the United Nations' declaration

concerning the Decade for Action: Water for Life initiative,

water will undoubtedly be featured at a number of Earth Day

activities later this month.

Two public venues coming up next week will stress water's

importance: On Friday, April 15th, Dr. Wayne Skaggs from North

Carolina State University will present "Agricultural Drainage:

Impacts on Hydrology, Crop Production, and Water Quality" as

the keynote address for the Annual Emerging Issues in Soil and

Water Program at the University of Minnesota. Dennis Anderson,

outdoor writer for the Star Tribune will also be making remarks.

The program is at 2:00 pm on the St Paul Campus. More information

at the web site: (http://soils.umn.edu/Emerging_Issues/)

From April 15 to 17 the Eisenhower Community Center in Hopkins,

MN, will be hosting a program called "Bridging the Water Gap."

This program is very diverse and has elements that will appeal to

all ages, aimed at being fun and educational. The importance of

water to our planet and our lives will be featured through talks,

music, art, theatre, and dance. Several well know speakers,

including William Marks, Fred Alan Wolf, Tyrone Banks, and

Masaru Emoto will make presentations. Scientific, artistic,

and spirituality perspectives on water will be shared. More

information can be found at the following web site:

(http://www.aquaessenceresource.org/)

I will be there to give a presentation on water and climate

trends.

Topic: The blizzard of April 8-9, 1973

Following a relatively snowless March in 1973, many Minnesota

farmers had already taken advantage of warm days in the 50s and

60s F to do some spring tillage in early April, when a blizzard

hit across 18 southeastern counties on April 8th. Temperatures

fell from the 40s F into the 20s F with a prolonged period of

heavy snow and winds up to 70 mph, taking visibility down to

zero. Twenty inches of snow fell at Grand Meadow in Mower County,

the most ever for April. Preston and Wabasha reported 17 inches

of snowfall, also the most ever for April. Hokah reported 16

inches and Rochester 10 inches. Highways and schools were closed

from late on the 8th until later on the 9th of April. Additional

springtime activities were delayed up to two weeks.

Topic: Weather for the Master's Golf Tournament

Recent history shows this to be the 4th consecutive year, and

7th in the past 8 years that the Master's at Augusta, GA has

suffered from weather related delays. This is also the 9th

golf tournament in the USA so far in 2005 that has been affected

by rainy weather.

Augusta is a golf course that plays somewhat easier after a

rain because the ball stops where it lands and the putting

greens play slower, allowing for a little better control. The

greens are notoroiusly fast in dry weather.

Rain is in the forecast for Thursday and perhaps some lingering

showers for Friday rounds this year, but it is expected to be dry

and pleasant for Saturday and Sunday. The last time weather

delays mounted up enough to push the final round to Monday was

in 1983.

MPR listener question: A school teacher from Hastings asks how

come the increase and decrease in daylength is not proportionate

between morning sunrise and evening sunset? In other words how

come we don't gain 1.5 minutes of daylength in the morning and

1.5 minutes of daylength in the evening this time of year?

Answer: This is a highly complicated question involving the Earth's

elliptical orbit, the inclination of the Earth's equatorial plane,

and their impacts on the daily transit speed of the sun across the

sky as well as its declination, distance above or below the equator.

The net result in the month of April is that we gain a total of

about 80 minutes in total daylength during the month, but the

contribution from an earlier sunrise is 46 minutes, while the

contribution from a later sunset is 34 minutes.

Two primary features of importance are the Equation of Time and

the daily changes in the sun's elevation above the southern horizon.

The Equation of Time calculates the difference between noon on our

clock and sundial noon, when the sun is directly over the central

meridian of our time zone (CST), a geographic area that is about 700

to 800 miles across. In April this differences ranges up to 8 minutes.

Also in April the sun's elevation is changing daily and this too

has an effect. Much more on this topic can be found at the U.S.

Naval Observatory web site:

http://aa.usno.navy.mil/faq/docs/dark_days.html

Twin Cities Almanac for April 8th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 51 degrees F

(plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 32 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 8th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 83 degrees F in 1931; lowest daily maximum

temperature of 30 degrees F in 1928; lowest daily minimum

temperature of 8 degrees F in 1865; highest daily minimum

temperature of 55 degrees F in 1988; record precipitation of 0.73

inches in 1906; and record snowfall of 5.0 inches in 1980. There

have been 12 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891. Greatest

snow depth on this date was 4.0 inches in 1975.

Average dew point for April 8th is 26 degrees F, with a maximum

of 58 degrees F in 1903 and a minimum of -4 degrees F in 1997.

All-time state records for April 8th

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 92 degrees F at Canby (Yellow Medicine County) in 1931;

the all-time low is -12 degrees F at Sawbill Camp (Cook County)

in 1939. The heaviest snowfall statewide on this date occurred

in 1904 at Moorhead (Clay County) where they recorded 13.2 inches.

The all-time state record for precipitation (liquid equivalent)

on this date is 2.45 inches at Dawson (Lac Qui Parle County) in

1894, much of it falling as heavy wet snow.

Word of the Week: Precipitable water

This is an expression of the total atmospheric water vapor contained

in a vertical cross-sectional area, commonly from the surface to the

300 mb height level (approximately 30,000 ft). It is expressed in

inches, the height to which the condensed water vapor would stand as

a liquid accumulation in a rain gage. Average values range from 0.1

to 0.2 inches in the winter months up to about 1 inch in the summer

months. Extreme values during the convective thunderstorm season

can range up to 2.5 inches in our region. The range in April values

can be from 0.25 to 1.25 inches. This is often referred to by

meteorologist as a measure of the extreme precipitation that might

fall from a given storm. However, total rainfall can often exceed

maximum precipitable water estimates when thunderstorms are slow

moving or regenerate over the same area of the landscape. An extreme

example in April occurred at Morris, MN on April 26, 1954 when

thunderstorms kept regenerating overhead and produced 6.90 inches of

rainfall which flooded many parts of the community.

Outlook:

Breezy and warm on Saturday giving way to increased cloudiness and

a chance for showers and thunderstorms later on Saturday and into

Monday. This is the time of year to be careful about fires. Low

humidities and high winds across a drying landscape present a fire

danger both on the prairie and in the forests, at least until things

really green up. There will be a chance for showers again later next

week with temperatures averaging several degrees warmer than normal.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

Looks like the weather may begin to warm into next week perhaps stretching into the opener. Stay tuned...

To: WeatherTalk for MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, Apr 29, 2005

Headlines:

- A correction about April frosts

- Preliminary Climate Summary for April, 2005

- Arbor Day

- The frequency of summer climate types

- Almanac for April 29th

- Interception coefficients

- Outlook

A Correction: Concerning April frosts...

Last week in reply to an MPR listener question, I wrote

that there has never been an April in the Twin Cities

metro area when no frost (temperature of 32 F or colder)

was recorded. This is true, but only in the context of

the modern National Weather Service records for the Twin

Cities that date back to 1891. Charles Fisk, Twin Cities

weather historian, points out that the old Ft Snelling

climate records show that in 1839 there was no April frosts.

In fact April of 1839 remains the warmest April ever recorded

in the Twin Cities area with a mean monthly temperature of

58 degrees F (next warmest was 1915 with 56 F). There were,

however, two May frosts in 1839, one on the 3rd and one on

the 14th.

Topic: Preliminary Climate Summary for April.....

A wild ride in April....near record setting early warmth,

then 9 consecutive days of below normal temperatures to

finish the month, including a record low of 28 degrees F

at Mankato on the 27th.

Average temperatures for the month were still 3 to 6 degrees

F above normal in most places, ranking as the 8th warmest

April of all time statewide, and the warmest since April of

1987. Extremes were 87 degrees F at Moorhead on the 18th,

and just 8 degrees F at Embarrass on the 24th. In fact,

Embarrass reported the lowest temperature in the 48 contiguous

states just three times in April.

Precipitation for the month was near normal or above normal

in most counties. Wettest areas were generally in southern

Minnesota. St James reported over 4.50 inches for the month,

while Mankato reported nearly 4.25 inches. Daily rainfall

records were set at a few locations. A new record for the

19th was set at International Falls with 1.59 inches and at

Winona with 2.41 inches. A new record rainfall was also set

at St James on the 12th with 2.03 inches. Snowfalls occurred

in some northeastern counties, ranging from 0.2 inches to

1.5 inches.

April was a windy month. Strong winds accompanied both the

warm and cold temperatures. On April 22nd several communities

reported wind gusts over 40 mph and on the 25th the Fargo-

Moorhead area had winds over 50 mph.

A modest amount of planting occurred across the agricultural

landscape. As the month ended most farmers will still waiting

for drier soils.

Topic: Happy Arbor Day

Today marks the 133rd celebration of Arbor Day, founded by

J. Morton Sterling in Nebraska in 1872. Governor Pawlenty

and DNR Forestry Director Mike Carroll will host a ceremony

Friday afternoon on the Capitol lawn at 1:30 pm to talk about

the value of trees.

Trees are a huge asset to the Minnesota landscape, not just

for their beauty or ability to provide wildlife habitat.

Climatically, trees provide a beneficial moderation of sun,

wind, and rain. They also improve air quality by filtering

dusts and other particulates. If you have got space on your

property consider planting a tree.

MPR listener question: You mentioned that the outlook favors

another cool-wet summer. How often do we get cool-wet summers

in Minnesota? What about the other extremes, warm-dry,

warm-wet, and cool-dry, how often do these types occur?

Answer: The answer depends on how we define these climate types.

One approach is to take the state data base for the past 110 years

(1895-2004), and partition the growing season months of May to

September into the warmest third, coolest third, and middle third.

Then do the same sorting on the growing season rainfall values,

wettest third, driest third, and middle third. Now we can look

for the combinations that match the types you mentioned.

There have been 14 warm-dry growing seasons, the last ones coming

in 1988 and 1989. There have been 13 cool-wet growing seasons,

the most recent just last year. There have been 11 warm-wet

growing seasons, the last ones coming in 2002 and 1999. And there

have been 12 cool-dry growing seasons, the last one coming in 1974.

The other 55 growing seasons in the statewide climatic record

have recorded either near normal temperature, near normal rainfall,

or both.

The most recent 20 growing seasons (May-September) are listed below

and coded to show the prevalent patterns of temperature and rainfall.

Codes used include C=cold, W=warm, d=Dry, w=wet, and NN=Near normal.

Year Temperature Rainfall Year Temperature Rainfall

1985 C w 1986 NN w

1987 W NN 1988 W d

1989 W d 1990 NN NN

1991 W w 1992 C NN

1993 C w 1994 NN NN

1995 W w 1996 NN d

1997 NN NN 1998 W NN

1999 W w 2000 NN NN

2001 W NN 2002 W w

2003 NN d 2004 C w

Cool-dry is a growing season climate combination we have not seen in

over 30 years.

Twin Cities Almanac for April 29th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 62 degrees F

(plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 43 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for April 29th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 92 degrees F in 1952; lowest daily maximum

temperature of 35 degrees F in 1909; lowest daily minimum

temperature of 22 degrees F in 1958; highest daily minimum

temperature of 61 degrees F in 1952; record precipitation of 1.30

inches in 1991; and record snowfall of 6.6 inches in 1984. There

have been 6 measurable snowfalls on this date since 1891. There

was a 2 inch snow depth reported on this date in 1994.

Average dew point for April 29th is 37 degrees F, with a maximum

of 66 degrees F in 1942 and a minimum of 7 degrees F in 1958.

All-time state records for April 29th

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 93 degrees F at New Ulm and Pipestone in 1910, at Pine River

in 1952, and at Wheaton in 1934. The all-time low for this date is 3

degrees F at Babbitt (St Louis County) in 1958. The heaviest snowfall

statewide on this date occurred in 1956 at Windom where they recorded

14 inches. The all-time state record for precipitation on this date

(expressed as liquid equivalent) is 3.25 inches at Orr (St Louis

County) in 1940.

Word of the Week: Interception coefficient

This term is used in micrometeorological research and modeling for

two purposes. With respect to solar radiation (sunshine), it denotes

the amount that is intercepted by the plant canopy with depth. The

topmost part of the canopy intercepts the most, and then the lower

leaves receive diminished amounts. With respect to precipitation this

term represents the amount of rainfall that is intercepted by a plant

canopy with depth. The leaf size, orientation and density of the plant

canopy obviously dictates much of this. Tree canopies provide great

protection from the erosive forces of heavy thunderstorm rains..yet

another reason for planting trees.

Outlook:

Generally a dry weekend, with below normal temperatures. There is a

chance for rain and snow showers in the central and northeastern

counties. A warming trend will begin by Wednesday and bring a chance

for showers by the end of next week as daytime highs stretch into the

60s F.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]

[Dotch]

Hmmm...alot of good this will do for the opener forecast! Check out www.climate.umn.edu for information closer to the sacred date.

To: WeatherTalk for MPR's Morning Edition

From: Mark Seeley

Re: Topics for MPR's Morning Edition, Friday, May 6, 2005

Headlines:

- No WeatherTalk next week

- Cold start to May

- Alfalfa weather injury

- 40th anniversary of Twin Cities tornadoes

- Metro area variability in low temperatures

- Almanac for May 6th

- Irish weather words

- Outlook

ANNOUNCEMENT: NO MINNESOTA WEATHERTALK NEXT WEEK (MAY 13)

I will be away next week and no Minnesota WeatherTalk commentary

will be available.....to keep up on the latest weather

developments please browse the Climate Journal section of our

web site at.....www.climate.umn.edu

Topic: Cold start to May....

The first three days of May averaged about 14 to 16 degrees

cooler than normal, with blustery winds and snow in some

areas on the 1st and 2nd. Most of the snow occurred as

flurries or brief showers, however some areas reported

measurable amounts. Red Lake Falls measured 0.5 inches,

Marcell Forestry Station in Itasca County reported nearly

1 inch and Spring Valley in southeastern Minnesota reported

0.4 inches.

Several cold temperature records were tied or broken in the

first few days of the month. La Crosse, WI reported a new record

cold maximum temperature on May 2nd with a high of only 39 F.

Embarrass reported a new record low of just 8 degrees F on

May 3rd, the coldest reading in the nation on that date.

Record lows on May 3rd also occurred at Madison (Lac Qui Parle

County) with 19 F, at Marshall (Lyon County) with 21 F, at

Grand Meadow (Mower County) with 21 F, and at Preston

(Fillmore County) with 18 F which tied the coldest temperature

ever measured in May there.

Some fruit growers irrigated overnight earlier this week to

protect plant crowns and emerging buds from severe frost

damage.

Topic: Tough times for alfalfa growers....

Earlier this spring as vegetation was greening up, some alfalfa

growers in central Minnesota counties reported winterkill.

This was primarily due to the absence of protective snow cover

during the severe cold that occurred during Christmas week and

again in mid-January, though some could have occurred from ice

sheeting (smothering) during March. As if that was not enough,

the severe cold temperatures of late April and early May when

overnight lows dipped into the teens and 20s F produced some

frost damage to alfalfa. This may have produced some visible

damage, but most stands should recover. Thankfully, no further

threat of frost is seen in the forecast through the 3rd week of

the month.

Topic: 40th Anniversary of the Worst Twin Cities Tornadoes

Today marks the 40th anniversary of the worst ever outbreak

of tornadoes across the Twin Cities area. Six tornadoes

inflicted over $350,000,000 in damages (today's dollars)

across an 11 county county area, including the Twin Cities.

They all occurred between 6:30 and 9:30 pm. There were 13

deaths and 683 reported injuries. Over 400 homes were

destroyed, another 1200 damaged. Over 250 mobile homes were

lost, along with 241 farms. Locally 65 businesses were damaged

or destroyed and over 27,000 victims were aided by the Red Cross.

Ten planes were also destroyed at the Anoka County Airport.

Communities damaged significantly by these tornadoes included

Chanhassen, Deephaven, Mound, Spring Lake Park, and Golden

Valley. Fridley recorded the touchdown of three tornadoes.

This outbreak included four F4 tornadoes (winds > 206 mph),

one F3 tornado (wind > 158 mph), and one F2 tornado (winds

> 112 mph).

Though the temperature that day only reached a high of 78 F,

the dew point hit an all-time high for May 6th of 66 degrees F,

a measure of the latent energy in the atmosphere that is

nearly 30 degrees above normal.

Many lives were saved as a result of tornado warnings put

out by the National Weather Service, through the siren

system, and broadcast by the local radio and television

stations. It was the first time the civil defense sirens

were used for such a purpose.

More detail about this outbreak of tornadoes can be found

at the National Weather Service Forecast Office web site...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/May6Tornadoes.htm

MPR listener question: Locally within the Twin Cities metro area

it seems that overnight low temperatures can vary considerably.

What causes these large variations and how big have they been.

Answer: This has been noted for generations. Sometimes overnight

lows around the 7 county metro area have varied by 10 to 15 degrees

F. Most recently this week on the morning of May 3rd, minimum

temperatures around the area varied considerably...here are some

reported lows that morning......

MSP airport 29 F Anoka County airport 21 F Lakeville 24 F

Rosemount 25 F Maple Lake 30 F N. St Paul 25 F

This variation is caused by a number of factors including, elevation

differences, the composition of the surrounding landscape (concrete,

builldings, fields of vegetation, wind obstruction, etc), presence

or absence of moisture, exposure of the instruments, and variable

sky cover conditions (cloudiness). Even the height of the instrument

above the ground can have a significant effect. Measuring the

minimum temperature at 2-3 feet above the ground versus 5-6 feet

on a calm night can produced a difference of a few degrees F.

Twin Cities Almanac for May 6th:

The average MSP high temperature for this date is 65 degrees F

(plus or minus 12 degrees F standard deviation), while the average

low is 44 degrees F (plus or minus 8 degrees F standard deviation).

MSP Local Records for May 6th:

MSP weather records for this date include: highest daily maximum

temperature of 89 degrees F in 1896 and 1934; lowest daily maximum

temperature of 35 degrees F in 1931; lowest daily minimum

temperature of 25 degrees F in 1989; highest daily minimum

temperature of 67 degrees F in 1896; record precipitation of 1.51

inches in 1939; and record snowfall of 0.2 inches in 1947.

Average dew point for May 6th is 37 degrees F, with a maximum

of 66 degrees F in 1965 and a minimum of 14 degrees F in 1989.

All-time state records for May 6th

Scanning the state climatic data base: the all-time high for this

date is 98 degrees F at Grand Meadow (Mower County) in 1934. The

all-time low for this date is 12 degrees F at Alborn (St Louis

County) in 1944. The heaviest snowfall statewide on this date

occurred in 1938 at Roseau where they recorded 10 inches. The

all-time state record for precipitation on this date (expressed

as liquid equivalent) is 3.48 inches at Minneota (Lyon County)

in 1983.

Word of the Week: Irish (Gaelic) weather words....

Since I will be in Ireland next week, I thought it appropriate to

share a few Irish weather words....not that I can speak the language,

but perhaps I will know when my Irish friends are referring to the

weather if I remember a few of these.....

Weather is "Aimsear" (pronounced am-shir)

Hot is "te" (pronounced cheh)

Cold is "fuair" (pronounced foo-er)

Wind is "gaoth" (pronounced gwee)

Storm is "stoirm" (pronounced stherm)

Who knows what kind of weather I will encounter, but so far the

weather has been warmer and drier than normal for May in Ireland.

Outlook:

Continuing spring-like temperatures into the weekend, but with a

chance for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. In

fact, Mother's Day will probably start out dry, then cloud up in

the afternoon with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Lingering showers in the east on Monday with cooler temperatures.

Chance for showers and thunderstorms again late on Tuesday through

Thursday next week.

Dr. Mark Seeley

Professor and Extension Climatologist/Meteorologist

Dept of Soil, Water, and Climate

University of Minnesota

St Paul, MN 55108

Ph. (612) 625-4724

FAX (612) 625-2208

E-Mail [email protected]