PWR

[cbrooks]

Got to start looking at this. The NCAA takes 16 teams for the NCAA tourney. Have to take the autobids into consideration. The autobids goes to the winner of Atlantic conference and ECAC(ivory league). So you have to aim for the top 14 spot to have atleast a chance to get in. There's always other factors that develop as well.

Right now I would say 4 teams at the most will be in the tourney. I'm thinking Minnesota and UMD are safe. I'm also think CC is gonna choke. I bet Denver gets in. UND and UNO are gonna have to win 5 of the last 6 and have a strong finish in the final five to get in.

UNO remaining schedule vs UND remaining schedule

[email protected]@UND

[email protected]@Denver

[email protected]@UND

Does anybody see any other scenios playing out here?

[Bear55]

Honestly I think the gophers can easily play themselves out of a spot, they have been jumping between 7-14 the past few weeks. They are starting to make me nervous.

[cbrooks]

They haven't been playing there best hockey lately. The game I watch with Denver on Friday I thought Minnesota outplayed Denver in that 5-3 lost. Anything is still possible but Minnesota will make the tourney more than likely. One thing you can say this year is there isn't a huge diffence between the top six teams. Anyone can take the Broodmoar trophy this year.

This week I like Denver. It seems every week a new team comes out and makes you revalute everyone. I'm waiting for that team that gets hot and stays hot. Remember how Denver's goalie Sam Britan played last year at this time. see if that happens again. Denver scares me, there starting to get healthy too.

[Bear55]

We tried to un-healty them, seems to have backfired.

[scsavre]

Hopefully the gophs get back on track. They are paying a hot beaver.I say the gophs loose 2 more out of the 6. I see dogs loosing a couple too tho.

[scsavre]

Ferris state ranked 1 in the pwr, I bet that's never happened before

[fishing tech]

Being #1 this year has not been a good thing. No one has been able to hold on to that spot more then a couple of weeks.

Only the one at the end of the year matters.

[cbrooks]

pairwise 2-14

1.Ferris St(CCHA)

2.BC(hockey east)

t3.BU(hockey east)

t3.UMD(WCHA)

t5.Michigan(CCHA)

t5.Umass-Lowell(hockey east)

7.Denver(WCHA)

8.Maine(hockey east)

t9.Northern Mich(CCHA)

t9.Union(ECAC)

11.Merrimack(hockey east)

12.MSU(CCHA)

13.Miami(CCHA)

14.Minnesota(WCHA)

t15.Ohio St(CCHA)

t15.Cornell(ECAC)

18.Notre Dame(CCHA)

19.Western Mich(CCHA)

20.LSSC(CCHA)

21.Colgate(ECAC)

22.CC(WCHA)

23.BSU(WCHA)

24.UNO(WCHA)

25.Harvard(ECAC)

[solbes]

Here's what I see looking at the PWR today:

Dogs: Tied for 3rd with RPI of .5510. It does not appear that UMD can catch Ferris State in RPI, so only room to move up to 2nd. Need to win 5 games out of 6 to do so. Winning 4 would keep thier RPI roughly the same. Likely move down in rankings with 3 or less wins. Duluth could flip negatively with Denver, Minnesota, Michigan State, and Notre Dame. Need 1 win out of 6 to have good shot of advancing. 2 should put them in.

Gophers: 14th in PWR so on the bubble. Downside, I only see them flipping comparisons negatively with 2 teams, Ohio State who's been on a wicked slide and Miami. On the upside there are a lot of teams that might be leapfrogged with flipped comparisons by tourney time: Union, Northern Michigan, Duluth, Merrimack, Maine, and Denver. Those are the teams you want to lose if you're cheering for Donny's boys. Winning 4 of 6 remaining games would just slightly improve their RPI and they should advance. Winning 5 would move them up, passing most of those teams. Winning 3 would require some wins in the WCHA playoffs to likely advance.

Sioux: Currently tied for 15th with 3 teams. Downside they could flip with Cornell and Notre Dame passing the Sioux. Upside they could flip with Miami only with 4 wins of 6. Winning 5 of 6 should flip comparisons with Ohio State, Northern Michigan, Michigan State, Merrimack, and Miami. I would say winning 4 would require some quality wins in the WCHA tourney. Winning 5 should get them into the tourney.

Not going to go through Denver's chances, but they are in between the Dogs and Gophers currrently. So it appears that the WCHA will have 3 teams in the tourney, possibly 4 with the Sioux. CC, Bemidji, and UNO would likely need to win out or win the tourney to advance.

[cbrooks]

WCHA non-conf records

Minnesota 4-4-1

wins-Sacred Heart(twice),Vermont(split),Niagara

loses-Notre Dame, Northeastern,Vermont, and Mich St(& tied)

UMD 6-1-1

wins-Nortre Dame(split), Western Mich(twice),Alabam-Huntsville(twice)

Denver 5-3

wins-BC, Princton,Union, Air Force, and Alabama Huntsville(split)

loses-BU, Miami

CC 3-2-1

wins-Union, RPI(twice)

loses-Air Force, Cornell(tied also)

UNO 3-4-1

wins-Mercyhurst, Alabama-Huntsville(split), Quinnipiac(& tied)

loses-Colgate,AA, Alaska-Fairbanks

UND 4-1-2

wins-Air Force, Maine(& tied), Harvard(& tied), Clarkson

Lose-BC

Mich Tech 3-5

wins-American In't(twice), St Lawrence(split)

loses-Northern Mich(twice),MSU, BC

BSU 6-2

wins-LSSU(split), Miami(split), Alabam-Huntsville(twice), Bowling Green(twice)

SCSU 3-4-1

wins-Alaska, New Hampshire(& tied), Western Mich(split)

loses-AA, Northern Mich(twice)

Mankato 4-4

wins-Alabama-Huntsville(twice),RPI(split), St Lawrence(split)

loses-UMass-Lowell(twice)

Wisconsin 5-1

wins-Northern Mich(split), Meryhurst(twice), RIT(twice)

AA 3-0-1

wins-SCSU, UNO, Meryhurst

two non-conference games left for AA against Alaska. That series only matters that I can tell to UMD and CC since there the only two that have loses against AA in league play.

[Bear55]

]Ferris state ranked 1 in the pwr, I bet that's never happened before

That has to be a first, they did have a pretty good team about 10 years back, Kunitz from Pittsburg was on that team. You have to remember Ferris bouncing the Sioux out of the NCAA's in 2002? They were in the same regional as the Gophs, we did work them over pretty good on our way to the title.

[cbrooks]

When I say the rankings this morning I couldn't believe that CC and UNO are that fair out. Those non-conf games are more important than the inter conf play. I feel a little better about where UND is in this mess. I think 4 wins is doable. So if they just make it to the final five there chances are really good for making the NCAA tourney? Of course there's always other unseen factors that can arise...right?

[solbes]

Those non-conf games are more important than the inter conf play. I feel a little better about where UND is in this mess. I think 4 wins is doable. So if they just make it to the final five there chances are really good for making the NCAA tourney? Of course there's always other unseen factors that can arise...right?

Yes I've been saying that for awhile. So much importance for non-conference games. Your record vs Teams Under Consideration and Common Opponents are highly influenced by non cons. Duluth got barred from the tourney back in '09/10 because they didn't take care of business in beating the non cons, well plus some terrible late season play.

I think 4 wins is doable for North Dakota if they sweep their home ice opponent (likely Tech, CC, or UNO). That would be a boost to RPI. Then winning at least the play-in game. I would think winning the semi would easily qualify them even if they lost the final.

[solbes]

Linked below is a nice HSOforum showing probabilities for teams making the NCAA's. I haven't dug into it deeply yet to see how they calculate a %. NCAA Playoff calculator

[cbrooks]

Nice find Solbes. This will make it alot easier than trying to keep track of everybody else.

[cbrooks]

I think UNO has the toughest road to get into the NCAA tourney. They have Minnesota and then Denver. CC has UMD and Mich Tech. On second thought CC scheduleis probably just as tough after watching Tech play this weekend. keep an eye on these two teams.

[scsavre]

I dont think UND is going to make it this year.

Gophs

Dogs

Pioneers

Might be the only ones from WCHA this year. I suppose ND and Denver can duke it out this weekend. I would think with Denver only losing 8 times to TUC teams that they would be looking good.

[cbrooks]

There could be 4 teams in the WCHA. As it shows in the link that Solbes posted on the other page, UND has a 50% of getting in. I think if UND gets swept there chances of making it is pretty grim. Alot is riding on this weekend. There tie last night did not help.

[scsavre]

I don't get these stupid pwr rankings. Gophs went from 14th to 8th by beating a unranked team. Seems if you loose a game your gonna fall 5 spot and if you win a couple u move up 5 spots. I guess we will no more on Sunday.

I didn't understand hat HSOforum

[Bear55]

The Gophs have been jumping from the 12-14 range to the 7-8 range every time they win or lose a series. It's a little scary to see those wild jumps, time to go on a winning streak and lock in a top 8 spot.

[cbrooks]

The big factor with the pairwise is your nonconfrence record and also your league's overall nonconf record(which WCHA didn't fair too well in this year). Minnesota has a 4-4-1 record. If the Gophs could have pullled off a win against Notre Dame and Michigan St they would in 1st or close to it.

[solbes]

Looks like UNO and Bemidji are essentially out. There is still a path if they win out, but they will need a lot of help. Winning F5 has to be their goal now.

North Dakota and CC are very much still in the mix and control their own destiny over the last 4 games.

Gophers and Dogs are holding on tight. I would expect them to both make it.

[solbes]

Current rankings:

1) Minnesota Duluth

2) Boston College

3) Michigan

4) Ferris State

5) Boston University

6) UMass Lowell

7) Minnesota

8) Miami

8) Union

10) Maine

11) Mich State

11) Northern Michigan

11) Denver

14) North Dakota

14) Merrimack

16) Cornell

16) Western Michigan

18) Ohio State

18) Notre Dame

20)Lake Superior

21) Colorado College

If you're an NCAA pairwise nut like me, you might enjoy these two good links that lay out some predictions/observations. It's crunch time for bubble teams:

College hockey news link

Sioux Sports blog link

[cbrooks]

Need New Hampshire to beat Maine to help UND.

[Bear55]

As of today, after this weekend thing could look much different.

1 Boston College

2 Michigan

3 Minnesota-Duluth

4t Miami

4t Boston University

6t Union

6t Ferris State

8 Minnesota

9 Massachusetts-Lowell

10 Maine

11t North Dakota

11t Denver

13 Cornell

14t Michigan State

14t Western Michigan

16 Northern Michigan

17 Merrimack

18 Notre Dame

19 St. Cloud State