Long Range Weather

[copterjohn]

http://wxcaster.com/conus_0012_us_models.htm

1000-500 Thickness/MSLP/6HRPrecip: This is probably most useful to you all. It shows the position of the lows/highs, and you can determine wind direction, speed and front position. Remember that computer models do not explicitly forecast convection since the grid is too large, but rather general precipiation. Of the wx models, the NAM/WRF tends to move systems a bit too quickly. Output to 84 hours and higher resolution. The GFS has less resolution, but is generally more consistent. It runs out to 180 hours. There is also a panel to look at output to 384 hours, but that is usually wishful thinking.

The Nogaps is the Navy's computer model and tends to overblow precip, but you can compare it with others for frontal placements.

Of interest to us right now is the Sunday period for possible strong storms, and a more interesting scenario on Tuesday which peaks my attention for some higher end severe weather...although this time of year, everything has to be in place at the right time, and the timing of model this far out is probably +/- 10-12 hours at best.

I plan my fishing days off best I can around the fronts coming and going, so you folks can start to play with it and ask questions if you want a short briefing on some of the products and what they mean.

Finally, your local weather office will "discuss" the models each day and pick the one they feel is closest to reality. This is a must read if you fish with the forecast. Go to this link and pick the office closest to you. Grand Forks does the Detroit Lakes area. Twin Cities handles the central lake country. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/localFcsts.php#Discussions

CopterJohn