The AL Central; a legitimate discussion

[pikehunter]

I come to this particular forum looking for lively discussion on baseball from those who follow the AL Central as closely as I do. But, alas, all the good baseball threads are gone now, hijacked by those who would rather talk about the prices of their cars, or how much they hate another team.

With that in mind, it's with good intentions I start a new AL Central thread, in hopes that, in this thread, we can keep the discussion to baseball. If you want to rip each other, and call names, that's cool. Start your own thread, or post it in another - this one is for actual conversation about all that concerns the AL Central.

When the inevitable happens to this thread and someone tries to push it down the road all the others posts have gone, all I ask is that you ignore it.

So, let's get it started.

I'll admit, the Sox are starting to scare me a bit, as they just won't cool down. That said, they've gotten lucky a few times and haven't had to face any real adversity (injuries, etc.)yet. My gut feeling is that at some point of the season, every team has to clear a hurdle, and Chicago hasn't yet.

So, the question is this: The Twins have 19 games left before the All-Star Break and are 7.5 back of the Sox. What reasonable margin will make you feel better about the Twins chances at the break? How many wins do you think it will take to win this division?

[Eric Wettschreck]

7.5 back right now is nothing to worry about IMO. Look at the previous years. Hopefully history will repeat itself. Every team will have peaks and valleys throughout the season. Just so happens the Twins are in a valley right now.

As happens to all teams, injuries will come to the Sox. No, I'm not wishing someone to get injured, that's just the way it goes. Twins are banged up right now. They will make it.

Yup, the Sox are strong right now. I'll give them that credit. But the Twins are all about the long haul. What is it, like 90 games left? Lots of ball to play yet.

[crappieflop1212]

Great idea PikeHunter.

I am too worried now. It doesn't look as if the Twins can keep pace right now. I am worried about those Indians more than anyone. I still think the Sox will have a skid. Although with their pitching, I don't know if it will be as bad as previous years. But the Indians, they are looking legitimate. As far as your question. I will say it will take 94 wins. Just a guess.

[pikehunter]

If the Twins can get healthy again, I'm not too worried, but turning it around with this roster would be tough. We're pretty banged up, and was not happy to see that Radke is battling a sore neck.

But, things like this will happen to any team during such a long season - none of which has happened in Chicago, so it may happen in bunches there as well. Cleveland is playing VERY good ball right now, and once they get some of those sticks going, they could be tough.

I think between 95-100 games will win this division, although maybe less when they all start beating each other up late in the season. I definitely would like to see us put together a little bit of a streak here. It would definitely boost morale to get within five before the break.

[Pig_sticka]

Did the twins turn into a bunch of babies?

This year I have seen more little injuries putting people on the dl or resting on the bench than I ever have.

I am all for the new rookies and farm system players coming up but what happened to being a tough player.

Mauer and Morneau who have the talent to be the best tandem in all of baseball need a bandaid or 2 every game.

Hunter, Jones, Silva and Santana are right now the only ones on the whole team that seem to be alittle bit tough.

Maybe it is just me seeing this in the Twins though, but I believe until they start growing up and realizing just because you have a tiny scratch, doesn't mean you cant play ball like a pro.

[pikehunter]

I agree Pig Sticka ... I think the younger guys have been coddled for much of their careers, so it's just a matter of learning how to be a pro. They think that by telling the coach or the trainer that they are doing the right thing, but by doing so every bump and bruise is treated as a possible stay on the DL. I think Torii snuffed that out a couple weeks ago though.

We have had some legitimate injuries as well. Punto just plays to dang hard not to get hurt, Morneau got drilled in the head, and if you saw Abernathy run into that wall, you don't doubt he's hurting. (You also probably laughed pretty hard. Man, that was one of the funniest things I've seen on a diamond.)

Anyway, just bumps and bruises ... we just have to stay the course until we get back in tact.

[Down to Earth]

For the most part the Twins of this year aren't much different than years past, record wise. I would have to research it to clarify, but I thought I read/heard that somewhere not too long ago. The big diffence is the White Sox have started out red hot with very hot pitching and finding the ability to win close games. Should be very interesting the rest of the way, especially with the Indians coming on strong, but it looks like tonight they'll get beat by Boston. I think if the Twins can keep it around 5 games by the break they will be fine if they have a good second half. They have quite a few games left with the Sox come later in the year and will need to win them if they want to win the division.

[Windy City Walleye Hunter]

Pike and Down to Earth,

You all know I am a Pale Hose supporter (insert joke here)

But I think the Sox have numbers on their side this year. The way they have been playing (like the Twins of old) they can go .500 the rest of the year and finish with 94 wins. That means the Twins would have to really catch fire just to catch the Sox. I don't think you have the horses this year on the mound and the offense is not supporting Johan very much this year. I think we may be seeing the Sox in the playoffs this year, hopefully they can last longer than the last time! Later, Windy.

[pikehunter]

That's a scary stat for Twins fans, Windy. Wow. That means it'll probably take over 100 wins to win this division and likely 95 or so to win the AL Wild Card.

I don't think pitching will be the problem though and the Twins compare pretty favorably to the rest of the league. We're lacking one or two professional hitters that will grind it out and put the ball on the right side with runners in scoring position.

Tough one tonight with Loshe vs. Bonderman with a severe need to get back on track. No time to panic ... but worry is starting to become part of the vocabulary.

[rundrave]

what do you guys think the chances will be of the wild card coming out of the central?

I have a feeling some other teams that got off to a slow start will heat up down the stretch?

[crappieflop1212]

I think the wild card might come from out east. The O's red sox and yanks. These good teams will go out and get the best available players before the deadline. The teams in the central are too cheap (with the acception of Chicago) to make any big moves.

[pikehunter]

Pretty tough to tell right now which division the Wild Card will come from. It's tightened up quite a bit. My gut feeling is that it won't come from the East. I think the O's will fold down the stretch (they just don't have enough pitching) and Boston will win the divison. I think the Yanks will finish second in the division, but short of the Wild Card. I know they'll go out and get talent, but what are they going to do, get three new outfielders? They just can't chase it down right now, and until they fix that, it doesn't matter who is on the hill. I think the Twins can get hot if healthy, and the Rangers are highly underated as a wild card contender. (Although who wants to be depedning on someone as old as Kenny Rogers late in the year?) So we'll see.

I did some number crunching on what the White Sox and the Twins have left before the break, and it's pretty even, with a slight advantage to the Sox. Let's hope we can make up four games or so.

Sox:

17 games left before break. (11 at home)

Opponent winning %: .429

Twins:

19 games left before break. (9 at home)

Opponents winning %: .446

[Eric Wettschreck]

AL East is tough right now. Good to see the O's and Sox giving the Yanks a run.

We have what, 11 games I think against the Sox left to play? The Twins gotta win these games and the division games.

I still think we're sitting fairly good. However, we really need the bats to wake up on a consistant basis.

[pikehunter]

Yeah, 13 left against the White Sox; six of which are at the Dome. I think the best hope is to get eight or nine of those, so you're still wanting to get within five and then get hot that time of year.

Just noticed this tidbit: After the All-Star game, the Twins will play the Angels, Orioles, Yankees and Red Sox, sandwiched around a series against the Tigers. All that in like a 2.5 week span. If you want the wild card to remain an option, the squad will have to make a little hay in that very tough stretch.

GO TWINS!

[Eric Wettschreck]

Agreed. But I've always said, if you want to be the champion you have to beat the good teams first.

[crappieflop1212]

Quote:

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I think the O's will fold down the stretch (they just don't have enough pitching) and Boston will win the divison.

---

I was just looking at the O's roster and stats, and you make a good point. Looks like 2 legitimate starters. They could easily tank it, but they have done fairly well so far. We'll see if they can stay healthy. If Badard or Chen gets hurt, they are done for sure.

[pikehunter]

I'd take Bedard, but even Chen you wonder how long he will hold up.

It's going to be interesting to watch the wild card more than past years with the central in the mix. I find it funny that many people think the wild card comes out of the strongest division, when really, it's the exact opposite. With the unbalanced schedule, you play teams within your division so often, that if you have a tougher top-to-bottom division (like the central this year) you may be at a disadvantage. In my opinion, that's the only thing that might keep the central from getting the wild card this year. There aren't any easy series - except KC, who is playing better this year. The other divisions this year get to clean up against the Jays, Rays, A's and Mariners.

You're right on though ... you've gotta beat the good teams if you want to compete come October.

[Windy City Walleye Hunter]

Pike,

I would love the wild card to come out of the Central and up to two weeks ago, I would have bet on it. But now I have to think that the wild card is in fact going to come out of the East. O's, Bo's or those hated Pinstripers always seem to manage to get hot at the end of the year. You are correct about that stretch with the Twinks, it is a killer and if they are going to make a run for the wild card they have to beat some awfully good teams. I'm not sure they are up to it, this year. Windy

[james_walleye]

I seriously doubt with over half the season left and thoughts of how the last 3 years have gone down that the twins have resigned too just chasing a wild card spot, down 9 games or not. Between all-star break last year and the end of the season there was about a 14 game swing from the sux leading at the break too how big the margin ended up for the twins. At some point the twins will get that 9 game deficit down and make it interesting.

[pikehunter]

I'm with you James. There's a lot of baseball left to be played. In fact, most of what I've read says the boys aren't even talking wild card in the clubhouse. They're chasing the White Sox, and only the White Sox right now.

They've slumped before and they'll slump again, you just have to wait it out. Hopefully we pull out of it soon.

[Eric Wettschreck]

Twins will rebound.

Why on earth would they even be thinking wild card??? It isn't even the all star break yet. They are thinking win the division and let the other teams watch scoreboards to see if they made it into the post season.

[james_walleye]

All i know is this, a week ago the lead was 4 games. Thats how fast things can change. And dont think for one second the twins dont have the talent too put on a run and get 4 or 5 games back in a week. That being said, it is time too get things going because you cant fall any farther behind. You cant have another bad week and find yourself 13 back.

[buzzsaw]

whew, your confidence is inspiring... I'm not sure a Knute Rockne speech would help stop this free fall! It's a long season as they say, but it's starting to look like it's going to be an extra long season if you know what I mean. I don't know what to think of the Twins right now... I'll wait to pass judgement for a few more weeks.

[8-Ball]

I'm with Buzz on this one- lets not panic yet. Yeah, they stink right now. ALL teams go through it in a season, at some point. Its how long it lasts, and if a team can recover, that make the difference. We have seen from the recent past that the Twins are a team that can, and will, recover. Another stinker tonight, I can't watch anymore tonight... Who took my lemonade?

[pikehunter]

I think we're all on the same page. A slump is kind of like a bad cold - there's nothing you can do but wait it out. We'll get back to normal soon. Three against the Brewers this weekend while the Sox play the Cubs - and likely see the return of Mark Prior.

The Sox will have a slump too. It's now very important that we capitilize.