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Grouse 10 year cycle


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I grouse hunt and really enjoy it, but the past few years have been rough. and the guys that i hunt with are always telling me that the grouse are at the bottom of there 10 year cycle. It seems though that this has gone on for about 5 years now and im starting to wonder. I dont really know a whole lot about it so im kinda curious how does the cycle work and why does it fluctuate on a regular basis. Just Curious. Thanks.

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I'd say things are looking good this year. There has been a lot more drumming activity up near the Crane Lake area and on the Iron Range than there has been in quite some time.

There are a lot of theories about the cycle. Rabbit populations go up and down as well. Weather, food supply, disease, predator populations all have something to do with it. The MN DNR HSOforum has some info that you can check over with some line graphs and such. Go to Hunting, then Grouse, and then the Reports and there is a lot of info there.......maybe a bit long and boring though. crazy.gif

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Grouse peaks tend to be in year ending in zero or one. If this trend holds true (like it has for 80 years) we should be back on the upswing for numbers of grouse in the woods this fall. You will experience good hunting from 2007-2012, although even in down years there are birds to be found. In down years I will move 1-3 birds per hour of hunting, while in peak years I will move 4-6 on average. When the numbers are down I would treat grouse hunting a lot like fishing, figuring out patterns and what "structure" is holding birds and concentrating on those areas instead of wondering through the woods like you can do in up years. Most biologists agree that the cycle is due to a parasite, which when numbers are high can be spread more quickly through the population of birds, while leaving only the strongest hardiest birds to breed and continue the species. If you are a die hard grouse hunter I would suggest keeping a journal of your hunts, keeping track of what kind of cover, water, food sources are available, then trying to find areas with similiar characteristics. I think you will find that you will encoutner many more birds. Oh yeah if you could pick yourself up a grouse dog it will help out a great deal. Good luck with your hunt of the king of game birds.

here is an interesting article

Most upland bird hunters are familiar with the ups and downs of ruffed grouse populations. Such cycles of abundance and scarcity are typical of all grouses, ptarmigans, and even prairie chickens. The fluctuations are usually blamed on the weather-even sun spots-or on parallel cycles in the abundance and scarcity of predators.

But Peter J. Hudson of the University of Stirling in Scotland had a hunch that predator cycles were more reactive than causative. He believed parasitic worms are more central to grouse cycles than are foxes or hawks.

In his long-term study, Hudson and a team of graduate students medicated 3,000 birds in three different populations of Scottish red grouse. The treated birds thrived, even when most others died during the "down cycle."

After the fallen populations recovered, Hudson left two of his test groups untreated while continuing to medicate the third. Most of the untreated birds perished when red grouse numbers plummeted four years later, but Hudson's medicated birds continued to flourish.

Grouse numbers may still be affected by weather and predators, but the triggering mechanism for declines seems to be parasitic infestations. As Hudson summed up, "This is the first time we've proven what causes a population cycle."

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Some additional comments and observations.

The past two cycle peaks have stalled a little earlier (ie year ending in 8 or 9). If you look at the plot for 97 - 2002 on the web site - you will notice more of a plateau instead of a peak for the state as a whole. Regional peaks occurred in '98.

I still believe that the hatch is a huge factor in fall hunting success. In '99 - '01 the spring/summer hatch season was a little tough on the grouse and potential super seasons were delt a subtle blow. I believe MN missed a million bird harvest on the last cycle peak.

The rainy '00 and '01 season during the peak hatch - stopped the super season from occurring. Still dang good hunting though.

Peak year tends to occur in NW MN first and then move SE across MN into WI and MI.

I have found that the best hunting is when the cycle in on the upswing and the hatch exceptional. Many younger birds in the fall population - yet the "press" is not running at the mouth about getting up North to hunt the peak.

The combination of more birds - less hunters is a good one.

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Good points Britt, the spring hatch will have a major effect on the number of young birds in the woods each fall. I have heard reports of clutches being on the ground already, so pray for warm dry weather and we could be in for the best season in about 6 years. I hope the pheasant numbers continue to increase as well, it leaves more woods for us to hunt.

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I hunt the Chippewa National Forest between Cass Lake, Blackduck, and over to Grand Rapids area, and have seen the numbers going back up, and the way it looks, my oldest son will be able to start hunting with the peak and maybe a few years after that, and that is a good thing to get him hooked on hunting, the same way that my father did.

Even without grouse in the woods, it is still nice to be out there, taking in nature with a man (my dad) that I have hunted with for going on 17 years this fall, and he has shown me many things....and I think he could say the same. I don't know how many more years he has to hunt (health problems), but looks like we might be getting on some good years ahead so he can go out on a bang, and then I can pass that knowledge onto my sons.

Take care, and safe hunting!!

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