Guests - If You want access to member only forums on HSO. You will gain access only when you sign-in or Sign-Up on HotSpotOutdoors.

It's easy - LOOK UPPER right menu.

Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
chub

Interesting read regarding guns......

2 posts in this topic

Another Brady hallucination: More guns, more ‘gun violence’ (Part 1)

4 comments February 15, 4:54 PM

by Howard Nemerov, Austin Gun Rights Examiner

« PreviousNext » A recent USA Today article discussed pending legislation on the open carrying of holstered handguns. It also afforded the Brady Campaign’s president an opportunity to display his knowledge of the situation:

Says Paul Helmke, president of the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, which opposes open-carry laws: "We don't want more people carrying guns either openly or concealed because the more guns you have in a situation, the more likely you are to get gun violence." [Emphasis added]

The following series examines various government datasets to test Helmke’s “more guns, more violence” theory.

Examining the 2007 Brady report card

Nearly every year since 2001, the Brady Campaign has published an annual report card, grading states on how well they have implemented what Brady calls “sensible gun laws.” Curiously, most of these report cards ignore Washington, D.C., which consistently owns the highest violent crime rate in the country: It is included here because its population exceeds Wyoming’s and D.C. has enough autonomy to enact its own gun control laws, like any state.

Brady’s 2007 Scorecard contains detailed criteria for determining a state’s score. Using their criteria, Washington, D.C. would have scored around 83, higher than any state, because it has the strictest gun laws in the country. It deserves note that in 2007 (latest final FBI crime data available), this closest model of Brady’s gun control utopia had 3.0 times the violent crime rate and a 5.5 times higher murder rate than the entire U.S. Therein lies the introduction to Helmke’s dilemma.

The first hint that Brady’s scorecard effectively identifies a state’s anti-self-defense environment is Brady’s definition of “common sense gun restrictions.” For example, states earn two points for not enacting what Brady calls a “Shoot First Law” (aka Stand Your Ground), which Brady interprets to mean that law-abiding citizens can use deadly force “as the first resort” when confronted by criminal attackers. Curiously, there are no corresponding points for how well states punish criminals who use deadly force, a criterion that clearly signals a state’s intention to reduce gun violence.

Further evidence of the pro-criminal bias appears when comparing Brady scores to FBI violent crime rates. Including the District of Columbia, nine of Brady’s “Top 10” states restricted concealed carry for law-abiding citizens. Brady’s “Top 10” averaged a violent crime rate of 505.1 (incidents per 100,000 population) and a Brady score of 55.5. Brady’s “Bottom 10,” all right-to-carry [RTC] states, averaged a violent crime rate of 380.3––38.2% lower than Brady’s “Top 10”––and a Brady score of 4.1. More interesting is that Brady’s “Top 10” had an average murder rate of 7.0, while the “Bottom 10” averaged 5.5.

Looking at the entire dataset, RTC states averaged a 400.5 violent crime rate in 2007, a 4.9 murder rate, and an average Brady score of 9.7. Non-RTC states averaged a violent crime rate of 525.0 and a murder rate of 6.8; 31.1% and 38.5% higher, respectively, than RTC states. Helmke considers non-RTC states much safer from “gun violence” because they average a Brady grade of 48.6, five times higher than RTC states.

Some might argue that the non-RTC states might have had even worse crime rates without their restrictive gun laws. Between 2001 and 2007, the national violent crime rate dropped 7.4%. During that same time period, RTC states saw a 7.6% rate decrease, while non-RTC states saw a 6.7% drop. Between 2004 and 2007, the U.S. saw a 0.8% increase in the violent crime rate; RTC states saw a 0.7% increase while non-RTC states experienced a 1.2% increase.

With “more people carrying guns,” right-to-carry states have become safer relative to states with restrictive laws. It would be interesting to see Helmke’s dataset, but in the meantime, part 2 will examine additional government datasets to test his “more guns, more gun violence” hypothesis.

References

FBI crime data compiled into spreadsheet; email request for Excel workbook.

Every dataset tells a story. For in-depth analysis of anti-rights politicians, see chapter 4 in Four Hundred Years of Gun Control: Why Isn’t It Working?, which deconstructs the gun control agenda and motivates more people to support our civil right of self-defense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Another Brady hallucination: More guns, more ‘gun violence’ (Part 2)

3 comments February 19, 9:43 AM

by Howard Nemerov, Austin Gun Rights Examiner

« PreviousNext » In part 1, we cross-referenced 2007 FBI crime data and Brady report card scores, and found that the higher the Brady grade––more “common sense gun restrictions” according to Brady––the higher the murder and violent crime rates.

While this correlation impacts Brady’s credibility as a reputable source for policy advice, the FBI data cited does not directly correlate gun prevalence to violent crime rates. Fortunately, there is a dataset cited by Brady which addresses this issue.

In a previous article, Brady made much of a 2001 survey by the North Carolina State Center for Health Statistics, as part of their Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System [bRFSS], which asked respondents from all over the country: “Are any firearms now kept in or around your home? Include those kept in a garage, outdoor storage area, car, truck, or other motor vehicle.” This article showed that Brady’s “best” states have low levels of gun ownership, and high levels of violent crime and murder, while Brady’s “worst” states have high levels of gun ownership and low levels of violent crime and murder. There is also fatal injury data from the Centers for Disease Control [CDC], which was cited by another pro-gun control organization. Because the BRFSS and CDC are cited by anti-rights groups as credible data sources in determining the value of gun laws, they will be used here to determine if the relative availability of firearms has anything to do with rates of what Brady calls “gun violence,” which means criminals using guns to commit violent acts.

The CDC fatal injury data enables researchers to divide state-level homicide data into firearms and non-firearms causes. Correlating the CDC and BRFSS data highlights any relationship between levels of gun ownership and homicide rates by mechanism. After sorting states by gun ownership rates, the more guns, less homicide correlation remains with the 2001 FBI data, and is confirmed by the CDC data (see table below). There is also a negative correlation between gun ownership and homicides where the murderer used a firearm: more guns, less firearms homicide. What is more interesting is the negative correlation between gun ownership and non-firearms homicide rates: more guns, less non-firearms homicide.

States with the lowest levels of civilian firearms ownership averaged higher non-firearms homicide rates than the total national rate! Their non-firearms homicide rates alone were higher than the TOTAL homicide rates in states with more firearms!

Finally, correlating with the 2001 Brady report card­––they used letter grades in 2001––confirms that states with higher Brady grades have lower firearms ownership rates and do not trust citizens to carry concealed handguns in public.

So the next time somebody suggests to you that the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence has our safety and well-being at heart because they are the country’s leading proponent in “common sense gun restrictions,” remind them of the following:

· States that Brady considers the safest, based upon their level of restrictive laws, have the highest rates of violent crime and murder, whether that murder is committed using a firearm or not.

· Brady’s definition of “common sense gun restrictions” means that law-abiding citizens have a harder time buying and owning guns, though criminals still use guns more often to kill those same citizens.

· States with the most “common sense gun restrictions” have the highest non-firearms homicide rates in the country because the victims are already disarmed, making other methods more lethal.

· States that Brady says are the most dangerous because there are “more people carrying guns either openly or concealed” have the lowest homicide and violent crime rates, and the lowest levels of firearms homicide.

References

FBI data compiled into spreadsheet; email request for copy.

Every dataset tells a story. For in-depth analysis of anti-rights politicians, see chapter 4 in Four Hundred Years of Gun Control: Why Isn’t It Working?, which deconstructs the gun control agenda and motivates more people to support our civil right of self-defense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0



  • Posts

    • Most of them will be liberals..   Ha ha ha...     Fake news ?   The direct result of a video...   I landed in sniper fire...   The stupidity of the American voter...     Hilborg...   Created, marketed and sold thru fake news to gullible libs across the country.    
    • And you still think something is not screwed up in this country!? I fear a great many people are headed for some very painful disappointments in the next couple years.
    • A 56 percent majority of Trump voters say that if a national media outlet reported that Trump said something untrue, they would be more inclined to believe him than the news outlet.
           
    • Here is some more business fueled by Trump and Uncle Bill type LIVs.   Fake News: How a Partying Macedonian Teen Earns Thousands Publishing Lies by ALEXANDER SMITH and VLADIMIR BANIC   VELES, Macedonia — Dimitri points to a picture on his Instagram showing a bar table decked with expensive champagne and sparklers.  It's from his 18th birthday just four months ago — a lavish party in his east European hometown that he says wouldn't have been possible without President-elect Donald Trump.  Dimitri — who asked NBC News not to use his real name — is one of dozens of teenagers in the Macedonian town of Veles who got rich during the U.S. presidential election producing fake news for millions on social media. The articles, sensationalist and often baseless, were posted to Facebook, drawing in armies of readers and earning fake-news writers money from penny-per-click advertising.  Dimitri says he's earned at least $60,000 in the past six months — far outstripping his parents' income and transforming his prospects in a town where the average annual wage is $4,800. He is one of the more successful fake news pushers in the area.  His main source of cash? Supporters of America's president-elect.  "Nothing can beat Trump's supporters when it comes to social media engagement," he says. "So that's why we stick with Trump."  Even with the presidential contest over and Google and Facebook's plans to crack down on fake news makers, money continues to pour in.  Posts about Hillary Clinton are also a hit — but only negative ones.  "I have mostly written about her emails, what is contained in her emails, the Benghazi tragedy, maybe her illness that she had," Dimitri adds, but now he's moved on to headlines like: "Trey Gowdy Revealed His EPIC Plan To Imprison Hillary Now That Election's Over, SHE IS DONE!"  Dimitri's sole aim is to make his stories go viral.  His most popular headlines during the election included: "JUST IN: Obama Illegally Transferred DOJ Money To Clinton Campaign!" and "BREAKING: Obama Confirms Refusal To Leave White House, He Will Stay In Power!"  The teenager is unrepentant about any influence his stories may have had on swaying public opinion.  "I didn't force anyone to give me money," he says. "People sell cigarettes, they sell alcohol. That's not illegal, why is my business illegal? If you sell cigarettes, cigarettes kill people. I didn't kill anyone." The same weekend that NBC spent with Dimitri, a gunman opened fire in a Washington, D.C., pizzeria. The shooter told police he was motivated by a fake news story. The pizzeria, Comet Ping Pong, was accused online of hosting a pedophile ring run by Democratic leaders. Asked about the incident this week, Dimitri claimed he wasn't familiar with the story nor the people who had spread it online.   A Modern Gold Rush The small, rust-belt town of Veles has found itself in the international spotlight after investigations by BuzzFeed and the Guardian traced more than 100 fake news domain names here.  The fake news bonanza couldn't have come against a more jarring backdrop. Once part of communist Yugoslavia, the Republic of Macedonia has a population of 2.1 million in a landlocked area about the size Vermont. Blanketed by rugged mountains, parts of the country have enjoyed a tourism surge in recent years. But vacationers won't find Veles in many travel guides. The town of 50,000 is almost an hour's drive down a lonely, crumbling highway from the capital, Skopje. Macedonia is landlocked by Bulgaria, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania and Greece. Google Maps Visitors are greeted by a distressed mosaic of red-roofed buildings, densely stacked onto a steep mountainside. Industrial smokestacks add to a wintry fog settling over the valley — though even their output has diminished after several recent factory closures.  Almost a quarter of Macedonians are currently unemployed — a rate around five times higher than in the U.S. But the burdens that weigh on Veles might also explain why it's become a global hotbed for fake news. High unemployment and a close-knit community meant that when Dimitri and others started making money, word quickly spread and everyone wanted a piece of the action.  Most teens here speak fluent English, allowing them to quickly navigate through reams of Western news sites and pinpoint potentially viral content.  Dimitri estimates there are now 300 locals dabbling in fake news, with at least 50 making "decent money," and around a dozen making "a lot." He says he's not quite at the top of the pecking order, but not far off.   But he is no scrappy teenager. Dimitri is bright, with an obvious aptitude for business.  He won't show NBC News his profile on Google AdSense, an online advertising service that allows websites to make money, to protect five other teenagers who asked him not to reveal aspects of their shared interests. He's also wary of revealing his full income, worried it will make him a target for thieves, or worse. However, he does show NBC News a digital receipt from Google showing he earned more than $8,000 from the web giant in September. He says this was just one of several advertising accounts, and claims his most successful streak — in the run-up to the election — saw him rake in $27,000 in just one month.  When asked for comment about the persistence of fake news even after the election, Facebook directed NBC News to a post from CEO Mark Zuckerberg last month in which he laid out the company's plan to tackle the phenomenon.  In an interview with TODAY on Thursday, Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg acknowledged "there's a lot more to do."  Google outlined steps last month that it said would restrict advertising on websites that "misrepresent, misstate, or conceal information." The company did not respond to NBC News' requests for comment on this apparently still-flourishing industry. Dimitri says even after the election, while business is less brisk, his fake news is still highly profitable. Like any business, he's aware of the need to adapt. "This business updates every hour, every ten minutes, every minute," he says. "There are always news ideas, new types of generating new visitors and that's the thing we all want." So while newspapers across the globe are losing advertising revenue, Dimitri's empire of lies is thriving. He says he now employs three 15-year-olds, paying them the equivalent of $10 per day. As well as buying new laptops and paying cash to boost his posts on social media, he has also invested some of his earnings into real estate — a joint venture with his parents, who are more than happy with his success.   The Anatomy of a Lie As with many regular journalists, Dimitri starts his day by trawling the web looking for trending topics that he can harness to drive traffic to his websites. He copies his posts from other fake news websites, including many in the U.S., or takes content from mainstream media organizations before peppering them with invented details. He also posts provocative online polls such as: "Should Trump Deport All Refugees?" and: "Do you consider Donald Trump, the Jesus of America?" Most of this content is published on websites Dimitri has built to look like NBC News, Fox News, the Huffington Post and others. A fake news page run from Macedonia that is made to look like Huffington Post. To the untrained eye, fake headlines such as: "BREAKING: Obama Confirms Refusal To Leave White House, He Will Stay In Power!" look genuine. The only giveaway is the imitation URL.  From then on, it's a case of throwing as much mud at the wall and seeing what sticks. "The most-read news articles are usually the ones containing the click-bait words," Dimitri says. "The click bait words, as you know, are, 'Oh my god, breaking news, wow,' and usually something that has never been aired before. Because if the title just says, 'Today this happened, today that happened,' no one will open that." He and his collaborators post these stories to their Facebook pages dozens of times a day. Again, he would only show NBC News a Facebook page that he runs on his own, which has an impressive 86,000 likes. But he said the six pages run by his collective have amassed more than 3 million likes between them. "Say you produce ten lies a day, [the audience] is not going to believe ten lies, they are going to believe probably one or maximum two," he says. "Usually the lies about [Clinton's] emails and the lies about Hillary. The anti-Hillary posts were really good." Stories from USA Daily News 24, a fake news site registered in Veles, Macedonia. An Associated Press analysis using web intelligence service Domain Tools shows that USA Daily News 24 is one of roughly 200 U.S.-oriented sites registered in Veles, which has emerged as the unlikely hub for the distribution of disinformation on Facebook. Both stories shown here are bogus.  Dimitri says he has set up more than 50 domain names in six months, all in a bid to please Facebook's algorithm and get the maximum number of eyeballs on his posts. He claims in that time his posts have achieved some 40 million page views. "We stay up late and we don't sleep that much — I haven't slept good for a couple of months now," he says. "I have to go to school and then at night I have to work." He and his colleagues see the process as an art. At first they worked on a basis of trial-and-error. Now it comes naturally. "You see what people like and you just give it to them," he explains. "You see they like water, you give water, they like wine, you give wine. It's really simple." The challenge of engaging readers on social media is one familiar to most journalists. They have a formidable opponent in Dimitri and his peers; analysis by BuzzFeed after the election showed that fake news websites actually performed better than conventional press and television.  Dimitri is unequivocal about why the mainstream couldn't compete: "They're not allowed to lie."   Partying to the Tune of Fake News The influx of money has created a thriving party culture in Veles.  On Saturday, one local nightclub was barely keeping up with demand, as dozens of teens and young adults ordered ice buckets filled with large $35 bottles of vodka. In this new era, the purveyors of fake news are the coolest kids in the schoolyard.  "Since fake news started, girls are more interested in geeks than macho guys," says one 17-year-old girl standing at the bar.  The most successful fake-news publishers have "bought themselves houses, apartments, maybe invested in some real estate or in some businesses," according to Dimitri. "They have bought themselves cars, they have bought ... their girlfriends better cars, better places to live," he says. Keen to feed off this gold rush, the nightclub even plans to organize a club night on the same day that Google pays out its advertising money.  A nightclub in the Macedonian town of Veles where teenagers dabbling in fake news go to party. Following Google and Facebook's vow to clamp down on fake news, Dimitri says he knows people have lost tens of thousands after their accounts were shuttered. "When they started to shut down webpages, business went down," says 20-year-old Kiko, a bartender at the nightclub. The impact appears to have been short lived, however, judging by the healthy flow of local currency, the Macedonian denar, being shoved into the club's cash registers. Most people are cagey about admitting any direct involvement in fake news. But Tony, a 40-year-old taxi driver, says that every young person he knows — including his own son — is in on the act. "I've been doing this job for 18 years and I know everyone in the city," he says. "I know kids who are minors, 16 or 17 years old, and they bought BMWs after running these websites." Is he worried about his son making money from selling hoaxes online? "It's better to do this job than to go into the drug business," he says. Also unperturbed is Veles' mayor, Slavcho Chadiev. "Is it criminal activity? Not according to the law of Macedonia," he says during an interview in his office. "All that money went through the state system and everyone paid their taxes." He isn't bothered by accusations that Veles' teens swayed the U.S. election. In fact, he welcomes the idea. "Not as a mayor, but as a man and as a citizen, I'm glad if Veles contributed to the Republicans' victory and Trump's victory," he says.   A view of Veles in November.  Like many Macedonians, he blames recent Democratic administrations in Washington for not doing more to help their country's attempts to join the European Union and NATO. (Greece has blocked these efforts in a dispute over Macedonia's name — the country's official title at the United Nations is the cumbersome Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.) On the flip side, the mayor still remembers fondly when Republican President George W. Bush recognized his country's new title in 2004. What would he do if he encountered one of these fake news tycoons? "I would ask him, 'Are you looking for a job?' Because I have a lack of IT guys," he says, before admitting that the salary of less than $400 might not be attractive. Dimitri says his goal is to earn $1 million, and it's no surprise the young entrepreneur sees Trump as "a small role model." There's only one question that sees doubt creep into Dimitri's cocksure demeanor. When he copies posts from other fake news websites, does he worry he's being used as a pawn to spread propaganda? "When you buy a certain product, you don't know who created it," he says. "You don't know who creates your shoes, and there are rumors that small children in Africa create them." He adds: "Maybe I don't want to find out, because if I find out maybe I'm going to feel bad. Right now I'm feeling OK.
    • I WAS AGAINST IT!!!! If it wasn't for Jay Cutler, Mauer's, would by far be the worst contract in sports history!
    • striker for me...I have had the suit for 3 years now and absolutely love it.  I wear the inner jacket everyday and when I go ice fishing I never worry about being cold as the suit is as warm as can be and I know that if I were to have an unfortunate incident and fell in I will be floating on top! 
    • Goldman Sachs has been smiling all the way to the bank lately...   As noted by market legend Art Cashin, the director of floor operations at UBS and long-time trading veteran, Goldman Sachs, one of the 30 stocks making up the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, has been responsible for a huge amount of the increase in that index. From Cashin’s daily commentary on Wednesday (emphasis added): “The Dow closed up 35 points and almost 23 of those points came from Goldman Sachs (GS). In fact, our good friend and fellow trading veteran, Jim Brown, at Option Investor, points out that GS has rallied $57 since the election. That means that GS has provided 441 of the 1363 points that the Dow has rallied. In case your calculator batteries are dead, that’s about one third of the rally, all due to Goldman.“    
    • The bigfoot blocks the light just fine. I bought used so there were portions of it that were worn and had tiny holes, but even with that I could see great. Making sure your skirt is down properly and covering up the floor make a much bigger difference. I use EVA foam exercise tiles for the floor, light weight and shed the water well.

      This year I went around and patched up a bunch of those, I used something we had lying around called Gesso, but I am guessing white out would have worked fine. Let that dry and then went over it with a sharpie. I doubt it will make a difference in me getting a fish or not, but needed to fill some time with the late ice  .   I am fairly certain this is the style of interior that caused the issue of seeing lines in the hole.
  • Our Sponsors