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LMITOUT

Luckiest Teams in the NFL (updated)

40 posts in this topic

I stumbled upon a HSOforum that has various statistics and calculations and one of the things they figure is "Luckiest Team"

Below are the results of their calculations which show the Jets are the luckiest team having won three more games than they probably should have. The unluckiest team is the Packers who should have almost three more wins. (No, this wasn't from a Packer HSOforum either).

GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site.

RANK TEAM GWP Curr W Exp W Luck

1 NYJ 0.42 9 6.0 +3.0

2 NE 0.45 9 6.5 +2.5

3 TEN 0.68 12 9.7 +2.3

4 BUF 0.27 6 4.0 +2.0

5 DEN 0.42 8 6.0 +2.0

6 MIN 0.49 9 7.1 +1.9

7 NYG 0.66 11 9.4 +1.6

8 DAL 0.54 9 7.8 +1.2

9 SF 0.26 5 3.8 +1.2

10 ARI 0.48 8 6.9 +1.1

11 IND 0.63 10 9.0 +1.0

12 CAR 0.72 11 10.2 +0.8

13 MIA 0.59 9 8.4 +0.6

14 PIT 0.74 11 10.5 +0.5

15 HOU 0.47 7 6.7 +0.3

16 STL 0.12 2 1.8 +0.2

17 SEA 0.24 3 3.5 -0.5

18 BAL 0.68 9 9.6 -0.6

19 TB 0.68 9 9.7 -0.7

20 JAX 0.40 5 5.7 -0.7

21 OAK 0.26 3 3.8 -0.8

22 CHI 0.62 8 8.8 -0.8

23 CIN 0.24 2.5 3.5 -1.0

24 ATL 0.72 9 10.2 -1.2

25 CLE 0.37 4 5.3 -1.3

26 WAS 0.59 7 8.4 -1.4

27 PHI 0.71 8.5 10.1 -1.6

28 DET 0.11 0 1.7 -1.7

29 KC 0.27 2 4.0 -2.0

30 NO 0.65 7 9.3 -2.3

31 SD 0.60 6 8.5 -2.5

32 GB 0.55 5 7.9 -2.9

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WOW,

Interesting stat Limit, let's see, Which team is WAY up the chart at #6 and which team is WAY down the list at #22???

Thought provoking, don't you think? So much for all the Queen lovers gnashing of teeth, wailing and whining!

Have a little Cheese with that Whine, Queen fans!

Windy

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Coming from a guy whose team probably should have jumped all the way up to #1 just on last Monday's win alone that doesn't sting so much.

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Come On Fishy,

That game turned out just like Lovie had it scripted! All the way down to Urlacher bouncing the quarter off his melon to turn it to heads! LOL Have a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year man.

Windy

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i'd have to say the bears are the luckiest team...not even counting the monday game...they always pull the rabbit out and get the win.

my vote for unluckiest would be the lions...alot of the times they are in the game in the end of the 4th quarter then totally lose it...you'd think atleast 1 of them games something lucky would happen for them lol.

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i'd have to say the bears are the luckiest team...not even counting the monday game...they always pull the rabbit out and get the win.

my vote for unluckiest would be the lions...alot of the times they are in the game in the end of the 4th quarter then totally lose it...you'd think atleast 1 of them games something lucky would happen for them lol.

It will this weekend!

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Windy,

Good thing Urlacher has that oversized melon. I am going with Houston and the #15 lucky ranking this weekend.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

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I wonder why LMIT didn't pull out that stat line last year when the Packers were the #1 lucky team.

There is luck in winning the lottery, the coin flip to start overtime and then there is the luck it takes to win games. Give the Bears credit, they found a way to take advantage of the luck that came their way. As did the Falcons last weekend or the Vikes earlier against NO. It takes talent and a ability to take advantage of luck in an NFL contest. Otherwise the Lions would have beat the Vikes this year when they had a +4 turnover margin. Is it coincidence that one of the best game saving QB's ever (Favre) has his team atop the lucky rankings for the second year in a row although he switched teams. The "lucky" team he left went from 13-3 to at best 6-10. The "lucky" team he is now leading was 4-12 and now has them in reach of the playoffs and/or division title. Good teams find a way to win. The Bears have done that, the Vikes hopefully will prove that out one more time and the Pack really suck.

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It is looking that way, Fish. The Queens are hands down the luckiest of the 4 teams in the NFC Central fight, and my beloved Bears are the most unlucky. According to LimitOut's chart so it looks like the Queens will roll and da Bears will be put into hibernation. Might as well not even watch the games! LOL

Windy

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i wish the vikes really were the luckiest of the 4 teams...it seems to me everything that can go wrong always does.

the bears weren't lucky with that blocked field goal it was because the vikes are just that unlucky. LOL

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Quote:

I wonder why LMIT didn't pull out that stat line last year when the Packers were the #1 lucky team.

I'm sure he just happened to stumble on this info recently.....and if you believe that I have some Ocean front property in the Sahara desert for sale....cheap!.. grin

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In response to:

Poster: PierBridge

Subject: Re: Luckiest Teams in the NFL (Through Week 15)

Quote:

I wonder why LMIT didn't pull out that stat line last year when the Packers were the #1 lucky team.

I'm sure he just happened to stumble on this info recently.....and if you believe that I have some Ocean front property in the Sahara desert for sale....cheap!..

Shouldn't you have posted that property in the "Free things" along with the 20' box fan???

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That is a great stat sheet. Detroit is # 28 and haven't won a game. How the heck can there be any luck there.

Stupid stats.

G.C.

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No agenda, just posted the calculations from THIS year thus far.

And, I don't know why it turned into a Packers issue when I'm not even a Packers fan. Yet, I don't find it surprising....

Nice try though. smirk

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LOL...Yep, never any agenda with your posts. Your concern over our being well informed about our team thoughout the season has always come through so well. Thank you for keeping us informed on our team. Keep those uplifting, well meaning posts coming.

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fishy, please go back and re-read the first post and maybe you'll see that there was no motive behind it.

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I was not commenting on that post alone. Your body of work leads many people to certain assumptions.

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Not sure how that first post can lead to any "assumptions".....I just posted some statistics for people to chew on and then in some bizarre fashion it appears paranoia set in that the beloved Vikings were getting picked on. wow.

BTW, what does "our team" mean? This is a football forum, not a Minnesota Vikings forum in case you haven't noticed.

Good luck today!

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Limit,

Don't let them rattle you, man. They are just really nervous. There is this big Green machine that is going to be rumbling into Twinkie town this week and all the Queens fans are watching out overhead as the Eagle soars in for the kill!

That was a great stat you found, no matter what any nervous Queens fans say! Eagles by 21 points!

Windy

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Not sure how that first post can lead to any "assumptions".....I just posted some statistics for people to chew on and then in some bizarre fashion it appears paranoia set in that the beloved Vikings were getting picked on. wow.

BTW, what does "our team" mean? This is a football forum, not a Minnesota Vikings forum in case you haven't noticed.

Good luck today!

LMIT,

Again, my statement had to your history and pattern of posts that led to the assumptions. Your idividual post may have been benign but its kind of like the boy who cried wolf. You actually posted something that didn't include a shot at the Vikes, their fans, their quarterback or backhanded, sarcasm laden compliment, and we didn't believe you.

In saying "ours" as a posessive I was referring to the Vikes that you so lovably pick on.

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