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robert1965

are we in a recession?

28 posts in this topic

it seems like the bad news wont stop. between the job loss, the bail out, gas price. my small painting business, in the last month has come to a grinding halt. every body seems to be hurting, is this just the beginning if so im scared.

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IMO, it will get worse before it gets better. Sorry to hear about the business. I would assume home improvements will be on the bottom of the list for people.

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who in your opinion, can turn the economy around.

Only the one and only Obamassiah. crazy

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I think time is what is going to fix this mess. How much that i couldn't say. I don't think either candidate has the answer.

I think its the matter of letting the market correct itself. Thowing money at it like congres is doing seems to drag out for a further duration. We are all going to get stung by this in some way or another and some worse than others.

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I agree with croixflats on this. It's going to have to fix itself. No president is going to be able to fix this mess.

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it seems like the bad news wont stop. between the job loss, the bail out, gas price. my small painting business, in the last month has come to a grinding halt. every body seems to be hurting, is this just the beginning if so im scared.

I personally think we are in one and don't see an upswing occurring probably until another 4-5 years

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I thought we were in recession long ago,But our government and some on this site say no? it doesnt fit the definition which has to do with how previous quarters went CONFUSING!

The current Govt view aginst websters?????

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It's an economic down turn grin A slip in the gears, a wrinkle in the fabric or is it--------------The trickle down. grin

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Looked it: up some say 2 consecutive quarter drops,some say 3,some say a stagnated economy.Heres a bit I saved look at the years recession was officially noted.Who ran the contry then?

Case Study

After nearly a year of falling commodity prices, rising unemployment, increasing personal and corporate bankruptcies, falling stock prices, and declining public confidence, the National Bureau of Economic Research made it official and on November 26, 2001, declared a recession. The announcement wasn't a surprise to hundreds of thousands of people who had lost their jobs and an even greater number of investors who had experienced substantial losses in the stock market. The bureau's Business Cycle Dating Committee of six academic economists determined the recession commenced in March 2001, when economic activity stopped growing. Although many economists use declines in gross domestic product to define a recession, the NBER Dating Committee examined employment, industrial production, manufacturing and trade sales, and personal income. The country's last previous recession lasted eight months and ended in March 1991. The subsequent ten-year period of uninterrupted growth between March 1991 and March 2001 was the longest in America's history.

Who ran the country between 1992-2000??? Got us out of recession only to drop back in??

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I think time is what is going to fix this mess. How much that i couldn't say. I don't think either candidate has the answer.

I think its the matter of letting the market correct itself.

Time will help, but I see too many resource constraints for EVER providing the GROWTH needed to bail the system out and take us back where we feel we should be. Here is a primer for the upcoming ASPO conference. This simple story is doomer, but doomer with statistical reasoning. I've spent most of my adult life kicking around the math surrounding energy resources and economy, it isn't a good story for us...

"From Below Ground to Above Ground"

Humans live in and from the biosphere. But in the first decade of the

21st Century, 85 percent of the primary energy consumed by the 6.7

billion humans comes from the lithosphere.

About 40 percent of this energy is oil. Another 40 percent comes from

natural gas and coal, and 6 percent more is from uranium.

This represents close to 10 billion tons of oil equivalent, extracted

every year from below ground.

The technosphere, that recent human creation, transforms the

biosphere, with the extraction, transformation, and transport of

useful materials from the Earth crust at a rate of about 33 billion

tons per year. In addition, about 36 billion tons of the accompanying

ores and some 30 billion tons of earth crust cover are extracted. In

total, the 11 billion tons of equivalent oil of primary energy are

needed every year to extract, transform and transport about 100

billion tons of materials, including the energy materials themselves.

Without that energy, these movements will not be possible. With

decreasing energy supplies, the extraction of materials and the

related services will decrease accordingly.

Being a sphere, the Planet is limited in size. It is obvious,but in

this world needs to be continouosly emphasized, that the resources

contained in it are also limited. Geologists in general and the ASPO

community in particular, know very well that the extraction of

resources from the lithosphere is subject to a given pattern that

limits and shapes the extraction rates. It has, more or less, the

form of a bell shaped curve, shown in its logo. It is the Hubbert

curve. Even admitting that the shape of the curve may drift apart in

some cases, from the theoretical one, due to social causes, the

principle is out of question.

And some of us feel that we are reaching the oil peak in our ascent,

and other neighbouring peaks as well, even the present financial

storms and other geopolitical clouds may disguise that cordillera, as

exclusively a monetary problem.

Then, it is a question of flows, diminishing flows, rather than the

end of oil or gas. It is a physical and geological issue, rather than

an economic one. Pouring more paper money into the markets will not

help to realize where we are. Those present frentic movements very

much resemble the classic film scenes of thieves throwing and

dispersing the bank notes of the loot in the middle of a crowd, to

create a momentary convulsion and thus, trying to escape from the

police, while keeping a couple of rolls in the pockets.

As M. King Hubbert said: `There's no monetary mechanism in existence

that can find oil that God didn't put there and the price isn't going

to increase that amount of oil'. The same can be applied for all

other materials that humans demand today in increasing amounts.

And there is a clear evidence that global economic growth and global

energy consumption run parallel and are very directly related,

despite some anomalies in specific countries, which claim

improvements in efficiency, in the GPD/Unit of product or service

ratio, while diverting and outsourcing the burden to third countries

o regions. Technology improvements and higher financial investments

help to delay the peak or plateau of the bell curve or reshape it,

but can neither fight the reality of gradual depletion.

There are also clear indicators that greenhouse and other gas

emissions are also directly related to the fossil fuels, extracted

from the lithosphere and burnt to provide goods and ser-vices to

society.

However, classical economists still work, think and behave as if they

lived on a flat Earth with limitless resources to be made available

by Man's ingenuity and market forces.

Very serious issues are at stake caused by the growing gap between

the available fuel supply, which is subject to natural depletion and

the ever growing demand implied by classical economic theory.

In the same way as a seed takes time to emerge from the ground and

form a plant, we will soon have to face the paradox and the dilemma

of returning to the biosphere and its resources for survival, and

rely more and more on renewable energy resources above ground.

The Sun projects onto the Earth some 8,500 times more primary energy

than we consume, but it is, again, rather than a question of volumes,

a matter of flows and feasible energy capture rates of this as

beautiful as dispersed energy.

We urgently need to determine the extent to which we can maintain the

present socio-political and technological environment with more of

the renewable energy resources from the biosphere and less from the

lithosphere, by using the human ingenuity and technology; or by

reshaping our way of living; or perhaps and better, a wise

combination of both.

We will be analyzing and discussing all these important questions in

detail in the 7th. ASPO International Conference at the World Trade

Center in Barcelona, Spain, on October 20th and 21st.

See the Official program "From Below Ground to Above Ground" at

<http://www.crisisenergetica.org/ficheros/ASPO7-Official-Program.pdf>

Join us by registering at <http://www.aspo-

spain.org/aspo7/registro_en.html>

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Originally Posted By: LMITOUT
hehe.gif

Agreed!!

Did either of you answer the question? Or is this crisis just a laughing matter? It's proven fact that democracts have a much higher return in the market than republicans when it comes to presidents in control. Maybe we should keep giving the rich tax breaks, unregulate the finacial market, and keep this great fiscal policy on track! Keep it up!!

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Did either of you answer the question? Or is this crisis just a laughing matter?

It's the only answer they have. wink

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Originally Posted By: brdhunter
Did either of you answer the question? Or is this crisis just a laughing matter?

It's the only answer they have. wink

crazy

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Originally Posted By: Sandmannd
Originally Posted By: LMITOUT
hehe.gif

Agreed!!

Did either of you answer the question? Or is this crisis just a laughing matter? It's proven fact that democracts have a much higher return in the market than republicans when it comes to presidents in control. Maybe we should keep giving the rich tax breaks, unregulate the finacial market, and keep this great fiscal policy on track! Keep it up!!

hehe.gifhehe.gifhehe.gifhehe.gif

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ANALYSIS

By John W. Schoen

Senior producer

MSNBC

WASHINGTON - Forecasting the economy’s next move has never been easy.

But as an association of business economists and forecasters gather here for their 50th annual meeting, the group faces the most difficult challenge in its history. Amid the worst credit panic since the Great Depression, the rulebook for giving guidance to their companies and clients is pretty much out the window.

But the group is giving it their best shot. In its official forecast released Monday, the National Association of Business Economists said they expect the U.S. economy to come to a halt in the fourth quarter, showing no growth in the last three months of the year. Two-thirds now say the U.S economy is in recession or will be by the end of the year — up from a little over half of those surveyed in May.

And unless the credit markets get back on their feet by the end of the year, the group is looking for a drop of 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter and a half-percent drop in GDP for the first quarter of 2009 — the first back-to-back quarterly reversal since the last recession ended in 2001.

Still, the group is hopeful things will gradually improve next year with the GDP back to 3 percent growth by the last three months of 2009. (The survey was taken during the week of Sept. 8-19, and updated Oct. 1-30)

“If financial conditions fail to improve quickly, near-term economic prospects could deteriorate markedly,” said Charles Varvares, the NABE’s president-elect and president of Macroeconomic Advisors.

The latest evidence of the accelerating slowdown came Friday when employment data for September showed another 159,000 jobs were lost, bringing the total for the year to more the a quarter of a million. Ominously, the losses — which had been concentrated in hard-hit industries like housing and finance — have spread across almost every sector.

With wages stalled, home prices falling, rising mortgage defaults and job losses, the rapidly spreading credit drought is forcing consumers to tighten their belts yet another notch. The latest data suggest the consumer spending is “collapsing,” according to Merrill Lynch economist Alex Patelis.

"U.S. oil demand dropped like a rock in September, down 9 percent in the last three weeks," he said in a recent note to clients. "All the evidence suggests a massive retrenchment of consumer spending in September, which will hit the rest of the world badly in due course.”

Retailers and other businesses that rely on short-term credit to finance inventories are getting hit hard. As that credit dries up, businesses that can't buy fresh inventory from cash flow or savings could run out of options fairly quickly. Car dealers — who maintain high-cost inventories while operating on razor thin margins — have been hit especially hard by the credit drought.

Car dealers were already coping with a slowdown in sales and overcapacity before the credit panic hit. In addition to being shut out of inventory financing, auto retailers are losing sales to customers who are having a harder time getting a car loan, according to Michael Jackson, CEO of AutoNation, the country’s largest chain of car dealers.

“We’ve gone from a credit crisis or credit squeeze to a credit panic," he said Friday. "I’ve been across the country in our stores these past couple weeks, and it is not pretty. The banks are looking for every excuse in the world to say no. And they're saying no to good customers with good credit that would be very good business for them.”

Until recently, about 90 percent of customers with good credit were approved for a loan; that rate has fallen to about 60 percent, said Jackson. For customers with a poor credit record, the approvals rate has fallen from 50 percent to about 10 percent, he said.

Those lost sales are going to bring more job losses at auto manufacturers and suppliers and at car dealerships. Even if credit begins flowing again relatively quickly, Jackson thinks the damage to the industry has already been done.

Car dealers aren't the only ones struggling with the sharp cutback in consumer lending. Retailers slashed 40,000 jobs in September, nearly double the average pace in the prior two months. Mesirow Financial chief economist Diane Swonk expects that number to continue to rise into the critical holiday shopping season.

“Most retailers cannot get funding for their inventories right now for the holiday season,” she said. “They're planning on store closures and not hiring the usual, seasonal hires that they put in. All of that will work against the employment situation and make things worse before they get better going into the holiday season.”

Going into September, the economy was being dragged down my some of the usual suspects: weakness in manufacturing, the slump in housing, and the spike in energy costs. But when trying to assess the impact of a full-blown lending panic, there are few historical reference points to turn to.

“All of a sudden, in the last two weeks, things have deteriorated,” said Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors. “And I think this is due to this credit crunch, this kind of panic. Never in modern-day history have we had a panic-induced recession. If it's confidence, that can be a very quick thing down. And once things get stabilized, we can come back up, and we will make up all our lost ground on the other side.”

That’s the hope anyway. The big unknown is how much damage the structure of the economy will suffer before lending confidence returns. Once businesses close their doors, it becomes much more difficult to start up again. The collapse of several large banks and Wall Street investment firms means there will be fewer lenders when the economy revives.

The outlook also depends heavily on how widely and quickly the credit panic in the U.S. spreads to the global economy. Much of the recent strength in the U.S. has come from a surge in exports driven by a weak dollar; if overseas buyers of U.S. products get hit with their own downturn, that will cut into demand, accelerating the downturn here.

Rising unemployment in Europe could prompt central bankers there to cut their key lending rate. On Thursday, the ECB decided to hold its key rate at 4.25 percent, but hinted at its first rate cut in more than five years. Europe's rate is more than double the 2 percent target rate engineered by the Fed.

Fed officials meet Oct. 29 to decide their next move. Leery of inflation, the U.S. central bank has held its overnight lending rate steady — hoping to unfreeze the lending system instead by flooding it with cash. Now, the panic of the past two weeks may have forced the Fed’s hand. Many Fed watchers believe the Fed will cut rates by another half point at the end of the month, if not sooner.

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Originally Posted By: brdhunter
Did either of you answer the question? Or is this crisis just a laughing matter?

It's the only answer they have. wink

Got some more smiley faces for this graph?

National-Debt-GDP-L.gif

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Originally Posted By: brdhunter
Originally Posted By: Sandmannd

Agreed!!

Did either of you answer the question? Or is this crisis just a laughing matter? It's proven fact that democracts have a much higher return in the market than republicans when it comes to presidents in control. Maybe we should keep giving the rich tax breaks' date=' unregulate the finacial market, and keep this great fiscal policy on track! Keep it up!! [/quote']

hehe.gifhehe.gifhehe.gifhehe.gif

I sure can't find this to be a laughing matter. The above graph doesn't lie.

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But as an association of business economists and forecasters gather here for their 50th annual meeting, the group faces the most difficult challenge in its history.

Gotta love economists and their pseudo science... “If financial conditions fail to improve quickly, near-term economic prospects could deteriorate markedly,” Amazing!!

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sparce, our economy is fundamentaly sound...we aren't bartering yet!

Besides, graphs are for the educated elitist democratic [beep].

When this blows up or blows over, we will all be laughing..cause either its the only thing left to do....or just fear mongering we saw with 2020$ billion hindsight laugh

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OK,here's the deal, a recession is when your neighbors start losing their jobs.

A depression is when you lose your own job.

The third, which is more likely what is going on is when the driveby media tells us there is a recession and everyone just quits spending there money. November 28th will tell the truth!!!

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