Guests - If You want access to member only forums on HSO. You will gain access only when you sign-in or Sign-Up on HotSpotOutdoors.

It's easy - LOOK UPPER right menu.

Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
fishgutz77

HELP ME WITH THE MATH!

64 posts in this topic

Let's see now:

About 96% of mortages in the country are just fine so that leaves 4% tops that have or are near default.

And they are telling us that it will take 700 Billion for AIG, and others and then 200 billion more for freddie and fannie.

those 4% have sent us into this tail spin bail out mode? and it's all because they suffered in rising ARM rates.

Let's lower the interest rates back to 5% and make all the people pay their loans and tell the lending institutions to go eat cake. Someone please help me with the math. It just does not add up when the reality is not all of these loans have failed but they want enough money to secure them all. B as in B and S as in S. What do you think.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The following are extremely rough numbers, and leave a few key factors out...but...

There are somewhere in the neighborhood of 107 million households in the US (estimate...there were just under 106 million in the 2000 census).

The homeownership rate is roughly 67%, so figure that is about 71 or 72 million home-owning households.

If 4% of mortgages are failing, that represents just under 3 million households.

Read: 3 million voters, or more as the average household size is 2.5 people.

Again, extremely rough estimates. Of course, not all of the owned homes have a mortgage; some are paid off. A fair amount of the failing mortgages would be failing, even in a good economy. So I am stretching a bit. But you get the idea. Politicians are using our money to buy themselves some votes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What do you think.

I think on the surface, we shouldn't be having this problem. Personally I feel the real problem that created the overarching crises is the energy market.

Regarding math, didn't you know that all the math is done after the game is done? The math will be done once the professional players sort the creel. Unlike a fishing tournament, the throwbacks are going to be tabulated to determine the losers payup when this stage of the game is over.

If you really want to talk warped math, look at the US government debt and economy growth projections required to solve it with or without tax cuts or increases. That darned exponential function does a terror when trying to apply any reality to it. That is some scary math.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let them fail...Honestly I would love to live through the "terror that lies within" if we don't bail them out. Let's put all the cards on the table and see how they fall. What's the worst that could happen...we go back to living off the land:) Boy would that sort out the strong from the weak!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let's see now:

About 96% of mortages in the country are just fine so that leaves 4% tops that have or are near default.

And they are telling us that it will take 700 Billion for AIG, and others and then 200 billion more for freddie and fannie.

those 4% have sent us into this tail spin bail out mode? and it's all because they suffered in rising ARM rates.

Let's lower the interest rates back to 5% and make all the people pay their loans and tell the lending institutions to go eat cake. Someone please help me with the math. It just does not add up when the reality is not all of these loans have failed but they want enough money to secure them all. B as in B and S as in S. What do you think.

I was with you until you got to the ARM part. VERY few of the foreclosures have to do with rising ARMs, although the media would love for you to believe this. Interest rates are down from 2-3 years ago. Last week I had a client get a 5.5% rate on a 30 yr fixed. The only way an ARM should have gone up with any significance in the last 2-3 years would be if someone did some crazy exotic 1 or 2% loan, which is statistically an insignificant number.

The VAST majority are people that should have never been given a loan in areas you and I would never lend our own money to (NE MPLS, Chicago, Detroit, etc), health issues, divorce, job loss, or people that see that their value is down 30-50% and walk.

I blame the mortgage crisis 50% on government intervention/programs/regulation, and 50% on the banks. But, playing the blame game isn't going to resolve the issue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It makes semce to me to lower the interest rates back to 5% I dont understand why they just dont do that.

I'm sure the banks want their money beig they bet the money, they only had on paper, in the market. I to say let them eat it.

I'm sure they are pushing real hard to get this deal done before the FBI finds anything out. Wasnt it posted on another thread something about section 8 where parties involved would be exempt from prosicution, something on the lines of that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let them fail...Honestly I would love to live through the "terror that lies within" if we don't bail them out. Let's put all the cards on the table and see how they fall. What's the worst that could happen...we go back to living off the land:) Boy would that sort out the strong from the weak!

I agree 100%. This should be the same for all mortgages. No help for those that cant make payments or have an ARM.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just recieved this in an Email. Kind of makes a guy think.

---------------------------------------------------------------

I'm against the $85 BILLION bailout of AIG. Instead, I'm in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a "We Deserve It" dividend. To make the math simple, let's assume there are 200,000,000 bona fide U.S. citizens, aged

18+.

Our population is about 301 million counting every man, woman and child. So, 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up. Now, divide 200 million, 18+ adults into $85 billion - that equals $425,000.00 each! Yes, my plan is to give that $425,000 to every adult as a "We Deserve It" dividend.

Of course, it would NOT be tax free. So, let's assume a tax rate of 30%. Every would pay $127,500.00 in taxes. That sends $25.5 billion right back to Uncle Sam! It also means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket. A husband and wife would have $595,000.00!

What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00?

* Pay off your mortgage - housing crisis solved

* Repay college loans - what a great boost to new grads

* Put away money for college - it'll really be there

* Save in a bank - create money to loan to entrepreneurs

* Buy a new car - create jobs

* Invest in the market - capital drives growth

* Pay for your parent's medical insurance - health care improves

* Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean - or else

Remember this is for every adult U.S. citizen, 18 and older (including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehmann Brothers and every other company that is cutting back) and of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.

If we're going to re-distribute wealth let's really do it! Instead of trickling out a puny $1,000.00 economic incentive.

If we're going to do an $85 billion bailout, let's bail out every adult U.S. citizen!!

As for AIG - liquidate it.

* Sell off its parts.

* Let American General go back to being American General.

* Sell off the real estate.

* Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.

We deserve the money and AIG doesn't. Sure it's a crazy idea, but can youimagine the coast-to-coast block party?!

How do you spell Economic Boom? W-e D-e-s-e-r-v-e I-t d-i-v-i-d-e- n-d! I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion "We Deserve It" dividend more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington, D.C. .

And remember, The Birk plan only really costs $59.5 billion because $25.5 billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Originally Posted By: fishgutz77
Let's see now:

About 96% of mortages in the country are just fine so that leaves 4% tops that have or are near default.

And they are telling us that it will take 700 Billion for AIG, and others and then 200 billion more for freddie and fannie.

those 4% have sent us into this tail spin bail out mode? and it's all because they suffered in rising ARM rates.

Let's lower the interest rates back to 5% and make all the people pay their loans and tell the lending institutions to go eat cake. Someone please help me with the math. It just does not add up when the reality is not all of these loans have failed but they want enough money to secure them all. B as in B and S as in S. What do you think.

I was with you until you got to the ARM part. VERY few of the foreclosures have to do with rising ARMs, although the media would love for you to believe this. Interest rates are down from 2-3 years ago. Last week I had a client get a 5.5% rate on a 30 yr fixed. The only way an ARM should have gone up with any significance in the last 2-3 years would be if someone did some crazy exotic 1 or 2% loan, which is statistically an insignificant number.

The VAST majority are people that should have never been given a loan in areas you and I would never lend our own money to (NE MPLS, Chicago, Detroit, etc), health issues, divorce, job loss, or people that see that their value is down 30-50% and walk.

I blame the mortgage crisis 50% on government intervention/programs/regulation, and 50% on the banks. But, playing the blame game isn't going to resolve the issue.

I agree with you on this. To many people were given loans at very little or even 0% down and now that the house is worth less than they owe they just stop paying, live there for 6-12 months and move out. Why pay for something that is worth less than they owe. And in many cases people took 2nd mortgages on there homes bought cars, boats etc. That is why for so many years the standard DP was 20% so you would have a vested interest in the property and willing to weather the downs. But with our fever to get low income, poor credit etc. people into homes we continued lowering these requirements. Did it get allot of people into homes they otherwise would not be able to afford? Yes. But we also now know the what can happen when the economy slows and those homes do not continue to go up in value very year. I do not even what to get into if it was dem's or rep's fault because we all know it was BOTH.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just recieved this in an Email. Kind of makes a guy think.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Our population is about 301 million counting every man, woman and child. So, 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up. Now, divide 200 million, 18+ adults into $85 billion - that equals $425,000.00 each! Yes, my plan is to give that $425,000 to every adult as a "We Deserve It" dividend.

Sounds good. But can someone verify the math for me. I get $425 per person.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds good. But can someone verify the math for me. I get $425 per person.

Dang, I thought it sounded too good to be true. laugh

Edit:

Well I think I know now why neither Obama or McCain have called me for my opinion on this matter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kid, if it sounds to good it usually is. smile

And we wonder why people are so miss informed when someone would send out an e-mail like with a 1000% error! What's scary is to think how many people just gobbled it up because it was what they wanted to hear.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You are correct. In the above We deserve it plan every man and woman over the age of 18 would get $425. Of course that is before taxes which we would be required to pay, in actuallity we would only get $297.50.

Somewhere there is heart broken math teacher wondering where they went wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The bailout is an estimated $7000 per taxpayer. Not every citizen pays taxes or has a job for that matter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think debating the bail out issue is a little tricky as there are far more half truths and miss stated facts then anything else.

The first post in the thread says that it will take $700 Billion for AIG. That right off the bat is incorrect. The $700 Billion bail out is not tied to the $85 Billion bail out of AIG.

The $700 Billion is designed for all banks to off load their bad debt, mainly mortgages. Financial institutions are being bogged down by this bad debt and sufficating becuase of it.

It is generally a problem of their own making but that doesn't lessen its impact on the US economy or on all of us. I am getting the sense that most of you would rather see nothing done and watch them all go down regardless of the outcome. If that is the case I must assume that you are all very confident that your company has to financial ties to any of the companies that could crumble, which is likely untrue. AIG being one of the biggest insureres in the world I promise you more then one of the people on this forum works for a company that would have felt major impacts from its fall if it were left to fall on its own. Are you all confident that your jobs are 100% safe in an uncertain economy?

If giant companies are allowed to fall sp quickly alot of people will be out of work, likely some of us on this forum. That likely would only create more mortgages that are not being paid off and more bad debt for more companies that can't handle any more. It would truly be a cascading effect throughout the economy.

I get the idea that we would like to see the major corporations that people view to be evil fall and burn but like it or not the economy is too interwoven that one giant company can not fall without it impacting everything downstream. And speaking as someone who lives and works downstream I am not in the mood to see what sort of impact it will have just becuase I want to see corporations fall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is generally a problem of their own making but that doesn't lessen its impact on the US economy or on all of us. I am getting the sense that most of you would rather see nothing done and watch them all go down regardless of the outcome. If that is the case I must assume that you are all very confident that your company has to financial ties to any of the companies that could crumble, which is likely untrue. AIG being one of the biggest insureres in the world I promise you more then one of the people on this forum works for a company that would have felt major impacts from its fall if it were left to fall on its own. Are you all confident that your jobs are 100% safe in an uncertain economy?

If giant companies are allowed to fall sp quickly alot of people will be out of work, likely some of us on this forum. That likely would only create more mortgages that are not being paid off and more bad debt for more companies that can't handle any more. It would truly be a cascading effect throughout the economy.

I get the idea that we would like to see the major corporations that people view to be evil fall and burn but like it or not the economy is too interwoven that one giant company can not fall without it impacting everything downstream. And speaking as someone who lives and works downstream I am not in the mood to see what sort of impact it will have just becuase I want to see corporations fall.

They should fall IMO. Yes I understand that it would create problems in other areas but thats how it should work IMO. If someone loses their job and can not make payments on their house they should lose it. I am not confident that it will not affect me, it probably will. If I lose my job because of RIFs due to bad economy I would expect to lose my house if I were unable to find another job. Thats how finances work IMO. No money = lose house among other things. Bad business decisions = loose company.

Yes, it would be a cascading effect. Companies shouldnt be in business if they cant handle the bad debt. Poorly run companies deserve to go out of business, it just makes sense.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If we let banks fall, what do you think happens to you? I hate bailing out. But I laugh when people say they want to see them fall and fail. What do you think happens to the company you work for when they can't get a loan for goods or services? How about your mortgage when your bank collapses? Think you have enough to pay off your house? Cause if not they'll take it. Cars? Grocery stores? Everything relies on banks. Yep, let em fall and burn em down. Then you might as well move to the middle east cause we'll be below the stone age at that time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sandmannd, I don't believe all banks WILL fail if we sit on our hands and let the smoke and mirrors clear. Some will, not all. I'm pretty certain that America can use (deserves) a credit holiday for a couple of weeks anyhow. I'm sure we could come up with legislation to have the government transfer loans in good standing to another bank under a federal program. I don't see a problem with the big investment houses failing at all. More debt is not the solution to our debt problem. I agree that we need credit for our society to function, however, we don't need this train back on the same set of broken tracks.

What do you think will happen when the dollar becomes so devalued that energy resources are traded in Euros, or worse yet, Yuan? We will be up the creek then, I guarantee it!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They should fall IMO. Yes I understand that it would create problems in other areas but thats how it should work IMO. If someone loses their job and can not make payments on their house they should lose it. I am not confident that it will not affect me, it probably will. If I lose my job because of RIFs due to bad economy I would expect to lose my house if I were unable to find another job. Thats how finances work IMO. No money = lose house among other things. Bad business decisions = loose company.

Yes, it would be a cascading effect. Companies shouldnt be in business if they cant handle the bad debt. Poorly run companies deserve to go out of business, it just makes sense.

Do you know the finances of the company you work for? Do you know if they are mismanaging their debt? Did you select to work for them becuase they have sound financial strategies? I'm guessing not.

Would you still have this attitude if your company is the one that goes under and it becomes a reality that your job no longer exists?

Those of you that preach the "Let them fall" motto seem blissfully unaware of how devestating it would be to the US economy and maybe even to you personally. Why do you want to see it?

And lets clear it up that we are not talking about one average company here or there, we are potentially talking about some of the largest corporations in the world falling. That is a totally different animal then just talking about a typical company that can't turn a profit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to add another dynamic to add to the mix:

What happens to the price of oil if congress approves a $700billion package?

Wasn't it just last week that they announced the bailout of AIG and oil shot up $35 in one day? Will we see $150, $200, maybe $250 oil? Are any of these companies/politicians invested in oil and know this better than I do?

Things that make you go..."hmmmmmm".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well from the tones of these discussion I come to this conclusion that Bart Simpson onces said "You're darned if you do, and you're darned if you don't" However, high oil prices will obstruct the growth of the economy. A collapse of the American economy of the projected magnitude if there wasn't any bailout or loan(however you look at it) might just send the world back to the dark ages.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just to add another dynamic to add to the mix:

What happens to the price of oil if congress approves a $700billion package?

Wasn't it just last week that they announced the bailout of AIG and oil shot up $35 in one day?

Actually it only went up a total of $16 per barrel in one day last week. It was trading as high as +$25 during the afternoon but settled at +$16 by the close of trading. That put oil at around $120 a barrel.

Not that the exact numbers are critical to your point but I thought I would just try to make sure we keep things as accurate as possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So when you invest your money its wise to deversify..RIGHT?

What did AIG DO? I guess they were thinkin bailout cause without them everything fails.No regulation! They got there let them get out. If it were me they'd repossess something,guarnish wages,ruin credit. Why not them! Its our govts fault Their (AIG) fault,Wallstreet mania's fault NOT OURS! Let em eat it!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0