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Teddy goes down


nofishfisherman

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I'm with bigdave my buddies and I haven't been very impressed with Teddy, he can't run the ball, he's fragile, game manager,white throwing gloves makes him look like a clown to me, playoff loss to Seattle etc. he's been very average at best in all games played, dave is right look what Bradford did having been on the roster for 9 days with no training camp with the receivers etc idk, Time will tell but it seems Theodore likely isn't a superstar or top 10 QB and seems far away from that we're just thankful we didn't draft Johnny football so ted looks good, sorta, compared to Manziel. 

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On 9/19/2016 at 4:22 PM, Big Dave2 said:

286 yards, 2 TD's and 0 turnovers in his first game, against a good opponent, with not much more than a week preparation while the running game is averaging 1.4 yds/carry. Has Theodore had a game that good in 2 years?

Passer Rating of 121.2 for Bradford. That is just the 3rd career game in which Bradford has posted a passer rating of 120 or better (this is Bradford's 7th season).

 

Bridgewater also has 3 career games of a 120 or better passer rating, including a 154.4 last season. Bradford's best passer rating ever is 134.6.

 

Don't expect Bradford to play that well every game this season. In fact with that O-line play Bradford will probably struggle quite a few games. Bradford's career indicates that as talented as he is, he has always been inconsistent from game to game. 

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1 hour ago, Nick Kuhn said:

Passer Rating of 121.2 for Bradford. That is just the 3rd career game in which Bradford has posted a passer rating of 120 or better (this is Bradford's 7th season).

 

Bridgewater also has 3 career games of a 120 or better passer rating, including a 154.4 last season. Bradford's best passer rating ever is 134.6.

 

Don't expect Bradford to play that well every game this season. In fact with that O-line play Bradford will probably struggle quite a few games. Bradford's career indicates that as talented as he is, he has always been inconsistent from game to game. 

How many games has Theodore had 278 yds and 2 TDs?

I don't expect ANY QB to be that consistent but Teddy was looking to be consistently bad with a known weak arm. That may work in high school or college but it's not a good combination in the NFL. 

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1 hour ago, Nick Kuhn said:

 

 

Bridgewater also has 3 career games of a 120 or better passer rating, including a 154.4 last season. Bradford's best passer rating ever is 134.6.

 

2 of those games he passed for 153 yds or less. Passer rating can be as misleading as any other stat. If you only throw 1 to 5 yard passes and only attempt 18 of them it's not too hard to have a good looking passer rating. I would rather look at raw production. Yards and touchdowns.

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1 hour ago, Big Dave2 said:

How many games has Theodore had 278 yds and 2 TDs?

I don't expect ANY QB to be that consistent but Teddy was looking to be consistently bad with a known weak arm. That may work in high school or college but it's not a good combination in the NFL. 

Teddy isn't a volume passer, you should know that by now. His arm also isn't weak - his measured maximum throw speed is within 1 MPH of Russell Wilson's. People say that because he underthrew deep balls last year, completely forgetting that his problem his rookie season was overthrowing his deep balls. You also probably noticed he never had a clean pocket on those deep attempts last year. But you can insist he can't make these kind of throws if you want.

VioletEquatorialCockatiel.gif

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3 hours ago, Nick Kuhn said:

Passer Rating of 121.2 for Bradford. That is just the 3rd career game in which Bradford has posted a passer rating of 120 or better (this is Bradford's 7th season).

 

Bridgewater also has 3 career games of a 120 or better passer rating, including a 154.4 last season. Bradford's best passer rating ever is 134.6.

 

Don't expect Bradford to play that well every game this season. In fact with that O-line play Bradford will probably struggle quite a few games. Bradford's career indicates that as talented as he is, he has always been inconsistent from game to game. 

Bradford had like 6 oc's and multiple HC's in his 7 years and played on crappy teams. Teddy has had a strong defense and an elite RB to help him out and the games he won were not because of his arm talent. Put Teddy on the teams Bradford had to play on and shuffle coaches and schemes every year and his stats would be far worse than Bradfords.

 

 

21 minutes ago, Nick Kuhn said:

Teddy isn't a volume passer, you should know that by now. His arm also isn't weak - his measured maximum throw speed is within 1 MPH of Russell Wilson's. People say that because he underthrew deep balls last year, completely forgetting that his problem his rookie season was overthrowing his deep balls. You also probably noticed he never had a clean pocket on those deep attempts last year. But you can insist he can't make these kind of throws if you want.

VioletEquatorialCockatiel.gif

A blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while. The fact is he is not consistently accurate and he knows it.He doesn't trust his arm and thus he takes easy passes rather that taking shots down the field  far too often which is reflected in the fact that he had only 14 TD's last year yet Walsh led the league in attempts in the red zone.

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I'll take Bradford and Asiata over Bridgewater and Peterson all day since it's all we got. Especially now that we have a few receivers like Diggs to throw to all we need now is a kicker and tighter O-Line for some protection.

It may not be another pretty year but the mongrels may just sneak up and bite a few wins like they did with Green Bay. ;)

Edited by leech~~
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11 hours ago, Big Dave2 said:

How many games has Theodore had 278 yds and 2 TDs?

Teddy has done this twice in 29 games (6%)

Bradford has done this 11 times in 64 games (17%)

Bradford had done this twice in his first 2 seasons (26 games) (7%)

I am a Teddy fan but am curious to see where Bradford can lead this team. 

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23 hours ago, O.T.C. said:

I'm with bigdave my buddies and I haven't been very impressed with Teddy, he can't run the ball, he's fragile, game manager,white throwing gloves makes him look like a clown to me, playoff loss to Seattle etc. he's been very average at best in all games played, dave is right look what Bradford did having been on the roster for 9 days with no training camp with the receivers etc idk, Time will tell but it seems Theodore likely isn't a superstar or top 10 QB and seems far away from that we're just thankful we didn't draft Johnny football so ted looks good, sorta, compared to Manziel. 

Oh, I agree, but there is a difference in being a QB that you can win a championship in spite of and someone that can lead you to one. I think the VIkings could certainly win a Championship WITH Teddy at QB, but I am not sure he could win you one.

At the same time there are VERY few QB's out there right now that I could say are capable of doing that.

That has been my point all along. I don't know yet if Teddy will be a superstar, but I think we could certainly win with him and he certainly hasn't lost us games at this point.

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Alabama would beat the bears. Agree BigD, you need to have that cannon arm at times and fit a ball in a small window, why are Rodgers and Brady still studs partly because of that, why was Peyton Manning benched last year because his cannon became a BB gun. Big Ben still cannon. We saw what Bret Favre could do here with WR and a TE that aren't even in the league anymore to my knowledge. Visanthe Shiancoe looked like a star and can't even recall his name went to Seattle after the vikes and favre and barely made the roster, favre made him look like a HOF er. Teddy has deer in the headlights look a little too often, what are we even talking about drop him immediately we can't wait 2 seasons for average teddy. His knee is gone, lets move on the sooner the better.

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PS. No we'll wait on Teddy and if he ever becomes a B+ or better QB we won't have the defense then to contend, that's Viking football we have one piece or the other never the 2 together. We had that record breaking offense with Moss etc. and zero D why we truly couldn't handle Atlanta way back when. Even Chris Chandler could pick us apart with no rush up front. Could Teddy pick anyone apart with no rush up front we have no clear idea yet. What scares me the most about Ted is extra D in the box to stop AP, man coverage and he wasn't lighting anyone up, that was seattles gameplan last year shut down AP and make Theodore beat us throwing and we scored 0 TD's. Blair Walsh was his own worst enemy, made the 50 yard boot to bring us within 3 should've missed that 1 leaving it up to Teddy to score it for a win. So Blair looked bad missing the kick and Theodore got off the hook.

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OTC I'm having a hard time following you, are you talking about the Seattle playoff game?  You can basically take everything you saw in that game and throw it out the window as its meaningless when trying to break down how good Teddy is.  That is not a fair assessment of Teddy or Russel Wilson or any QB that would be playing in those conditions.  The entire advantage in a game like that belongs to the defense.  Trying to throw a football when its -6 is next to impossible (the ball is rock hard, slick as snot and your hands are so cold you can't get any feel or grip) so the D can screw up and still look good after an errant throw.   If you do want to break down that game Teddy out played Wilson.  Wilson did throw a touchdown pass (also had an INT) but Teddy would have also had a TD if his receiver didn't drop a perfectly placed ball.  I was at the game and Teddy hit the WR in stride (I want to say it was Diggs but I don't recall) with a wide open path to the endzone and it bounces off the WR's stone hands.  Almost assuredly a by product of the miserable conditions but a devastating drop none the less.

Now don't take this as me thinking Teddy is God's gift to football.  He's still got plenty of weaknesses and still needs to show vast improvement before he can be considered a franchise QB but I think we need to at least be fair in the assessment. 

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14 hours ago, Nick Kuhn said:

 His arm also isn't weak - his measured maximum throw speed is within 1 MPH of Russell Wilson's. People say that because he underthrew deep balls last year, completely forgetting that his problem his rookie season was overthrowing his deep balls. You also probably noticed he never had a clean pocket on those deep attempts last year. But you can insist he can't make these kind of throws if you want.

 

Quote

Greg Cosell's Film Review: Teddy Bridgewater's strengths, and one weakness

 
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Greg Cosell
Nov 7, 2015, 12:08 PM
 
 
minnesota-vikings-v-chicago-bears-201511
View photos
 
Greg Cosell's Film Review: Teddy Bridgewater's strengths, and one weakness
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Minnesota Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater’s profile is becoming more fully realized with each game: He can efficiently run offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s offense, but he’s limited as a passer.

Bridgewater has limited arm strength for an NFL quarterback. To be effective, Bridgewater needs to be a consistently great decision maker, he needs to be precisely accurate, and he needs to be exceptionally bright and aware. And often, he is all of those things.

 

Quote

Bridgewater has limited arm strength for an NFL quarterback.

 

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Weird that we have combine velocities for the last several years available. Again if Teddy opens it up he has plenty of arm strength. You can argue he isn't accurate on deep throws, which has been true. But you can't argue he doesn't have the arm to get it plenty far downfield. Notice Ponder is near the bottom of the list, and his arm showed when his Hail Mary passes landed at the 5 yard line.

QB Year Pick Velocity
Logan Thomas 2014 120 60
Bryan Bennett 2015 UD 60
Stephen Morris 2014 UD 59
Zac Dysert 2013 234 59
Tyler Bray 2013 UD 59
Kirk Cousins 2012 102 59
Brandon Weeden 2012 22 59
Colin Kaepernick 2011 36 59
Teddy Bridgewater 2014 32 58
Austin Davis 2012 UD 58
Nick Foles 2012 88 58
Ryan Mallett 2011 74 58
Drew Willy 2009 UD 58
Mike Reilly 2009 UD 58
John Parker Wilson 2009 UD 58
Sean Mannion 2015 89 57
Brandon Bridge 2015 UD 57
Tom Savage 2014 135 57
James Vandenberg 2013 UD 57
Chandler Harnish 2012 253 57
Josh Freeman 2009 17 57
Mark Sanchez 2009 5 57
Chase Daniel 2009 UD 57
Paul Smith 2008 UD 57

 

QB Year Pick   Velocity
Marcus Mariota 2015 2 56
Anthony Boone 2015 UD 56
Blake Bortles 2014 3 56
Brett Smith 2014 UD 56
Jimmy Garoppolo 2014 62 56
Jeff Matthews 2014 UD 56
Keith Wenning 2014 194 56
Ryan Nassib 2013 110 56
Cam Newton 2011 1 56
Andy Dalton 2011 35 56
Pat Devlin 2011 UD 56
Colt McCoy 2010 85 56
Levi Brown 2010 209 56
Nate Davis 2009 171 56
Curtis Painter 2009 201 56
Jameis Winston 2015 1 55
Cody Fajardo 2015 UD 55
Geno Smith 2013 39 55
Tyler Wilson 2013 112 55
Russell Wilson 2012 75 55
Case Keenum 2012 UD 55
Scott Tolzien 2011 UD 55
Rhett Bomar 2009 151 55
Joe Flacco 2008 18 55
Kevin O’Connell 2008 94 55
Bryn Renner 2014 UD 54
Tajh Boyd 2014 213 54
E.J. Manuel 2013 16 54
Matt Scott 2013 UD 54
Jake Locker 2011 8 54
Nathan Enderle 2011 160 54
Brett Hundley 2015 147 53
Bryce Petty 2015 103 53
AJ McCaron 2014 164 53
David Fales 2014 183 53
Dustin Vaughan 2014 UD 53
Landry Jones 2013 115 53
Stephen McGee 2009 101 53
Tom Brandstater 2009 174 53
Brian Brohm 2008 56 53
Chad Henne 2008 57 53
QB Year Pick Velocity
Ryan Lindley 2012 185 52
Kellen Moore 2012 UD 52
T.J. Yates 2011 152 52
Mike Kafka 2010 122 52
Jevan Snead 2010 UD 52
Max Hall 2010 UD 52
Zac Robinson 2010 250 52
Tim Hiller 2010 UD 52
Graham Harrell 2009 UD 52
Pat White 2009 44 52
Erik Ainge 2008 162 52
Jerry Lovelocke 2015 UD 51
Shane Carden 2015 UD 51
Colby Cameron 2013 UD 51
Christian Ponder 2011 12 51
Sean Canfield 2010 239 51
John David Booty 2008 137 51
Connor Shaw 2014 UD 50
Ricky Stanzi 2011 135 50
Tyrod Taylor 2011 180 50
John Skelton 2010 155 50
Jarrett Brown 2010 UD 50
Matt Flynn 2008 209 50
Mike Glennon 2013 73 49
Tony Pike 2010 204 49
Dan LeFavour 2010 181 49
Josh Johnson 2008 160 49
Colt Brennan 2008 186 44
Blake Sims 2015 UD 42

 

 

Also weird that we have overthrow and underthrow stats, his rookie year Teddy underthrew the 2nd fewest passes in the NFL. As far as I can tell Football Outsiders didn't publish this for 2015.

 

Quarterback Passes Overthrown Pct. Rk Underthrown Pct. Rk Bad Throw Pct. Rk
Drew Brees 653 44 6.7% 2 25 3.8% 3 69 10.6% 1
Robert Griffin 214 14 6.5% 1 12 5.6% 20 26 12.1% 2
Matt Ryan 623 63 10.1% 7 27 4.3% 8 90 14.4% 3
Ryan Tannehill 589 70 11.9% 18 16 2.7% 1 86 14.6% 4
Ryan Fitzpatrick 311 30 9.6% 6 16 5.1% 15 46 14.8% 5
Tony Romo 434 48 11.1% 11 17 3.9% 5 65 15.0% 6
Jay Cutler 561 53 9.4% 5 32 5.7% 21 85 15.2% 7
Alex Smith 464 36 7.8% 3 35 7.5% 31 71 15.3% 8
Andrew Luck 616 73 11.9% 16 24 3.9% 4 97 15.7% 9
Aaron Rodgers 520 47 9.0% 4 36 6.9% 28 83 16.0% 10
Philip Rivers 569 63 11.1% 12 28 4.9% 13 91 16.0% 11
Ben Roethlisberger 599 62 10.4% 8 35 5.8% 23 97 16.2% 12
Derek Carr 593 65 11.0% 9 32 5.4% 18 97 16.4% 13
Teddy Bridgewater 397 55 13.9% 30 11 2.8% 2 66 16.6% 14
Russell Wilson 451 54 12.0% 19 21 4.7% 10 75 16.6% 15
Eli Manning 600 71 11.8% 15 31 5.2% 16 102 17.0% 16
Andy Dalton 481 64 13.3% 27 20 4.2% 7 84 17.5% 17
Geno Smith 366 47 12.8% 23 18 4.9% 12 65 17.8% 18
Quarterback Passes Overthrown Pct. Rk Underthrown Pct. Rk Bad Throw Pct. Rk
Mike Glennon 202 24 11.9% 17 13 6.4% 25 37 18.3% 19
Shaun Hill 229 30 13.1% 25 12 5.2% 17 42 18.3% 20
Tom Brady 582 64 11.0% 10 43 7.4% 30 107 18.4% 21
Mark Sanchez 309 42 13.6% 28 15 4.9% 11 57 18.4% 22
Peyton Manning 595 76 12.8% 22 35 5.9% 24 111 18.7% 23
Carson Palmer 224 29 12.9% 24 13 5.8% 22 42 18.8% 24
Austin Davis 282 39 13.8% 29 14 5.0% 14 53 18.8% 25
Kyle Orton 445 50 11.2% 13 36 8.1% 33 86 19.3% 26
Joe Flacco 548 72 13.1% 26 36 6.6% 27 108 19.7% 27
Matthew Stafford 599 74 12.4% 21 46 7.7% 32 120 20.0% 28
Josh McCown 323 48 14.9% 33 18 5.6% 19 66 20.4% 29
Drew Stanton 240 29 12.1% 20 21 8.8% 34 50 20.8% 30
Nick Foles 310 45 14.5% 31 20 6.5% 26 65 21.0% 31
Cam Newton 446 76 17.0% 36 18 4.0% 6 94 21.1% 32
Colin Kaepernick 478 80 16.7% 35 22 4.6% 9 102 21.3% 33
Blake Bortles 474 69 14.6% 32 33 7.0% 29 102 21.5% 34
Kirk Cousins 204 24 11.8% 14 21 10.3% 36 45 22.1% 35
Brian Hoyer 437 65 14.9% 34 42 9.6% 35 107 24.5% 36
NFL AVG - - 12.2% - - 5.8% - - 18.0% -

 

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Another one who tries to use statistical metrics to make Teddy palatable. Velocity is an indicator of arm speed not strength. It should indicate that he has a faster release and can get the ball out faster but doesn't mean his arm is a cannon and doesn't mean that it goes where it needs to go. 

As far as the overthrow/ under throw thing, if you are only throwing easy, safe passes the majority of time then your percentage should be high. It doesn't mean he is more accurate on a throw per throw basis but rather that there are throws other QBs attempt on a regular basis that he doesn't. 

 

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In a nutshell what I'm saying is can we even wait on Teddy, will he heal up alright ? Is it worth waiting for, over a Sam Bradford ? He's no Cam Newton. He's Brad Johnson sorta. I think Bradford can do everything Teddy can do and maybe a bit more. Viking superbowl chances come around once maybe twice a decade where we have a team that might make it. The Viking window is always a short one. In our 14 team fantasy football league Ted went undrafted last year, that says a little about him at least when we draft 28 QB's and he wasn't 1 of them. Teddy isn't a runner but mobility is huge, will this knee injury make him lose a step he barely has when he was healthy ? Cut him immediately and AP also, we have to move forward while we have a defense if healthy could be championship caliber rather then hanging onto knee/leg injured guys that play skilled positions. Have we had a knee blowout QB that we waited on to recover from ? And they came back rating at least at B+ or better.  

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Man you guys love to hate. Yeah, I remember a certain left handed throw that was intercepted in that game, it was a terrible decision and Teddy knows it. Interesting tidbit about that: had he just taken a sack there, Teddy would have been the first QB in the history of the NFL to have played a full season without throwing an interception on passes traveling less than 15 yards downfield. You highlighting his one bad decision ignores the several hundred times he made a good decision.

 

Like the Aaron Rodgers too. Did you look on facebook recently? See the little thing where over the last 8 games Aaron Rodgers has been outplayed by Blaine Gabbert? I bet you are wondering how that is possible? Well, that's because it isn't true and just happens to be an example of Simpson's paradox (where combined stats reflect the opposite result of individual stats due to inequivalent sampling).

 

Teddy is also a victim of Simpson's Paradox. But football outsiders can explain that better

Quote

In fact, here is a very interesting split from last season.

 

  • Bridgewater (14th) ranked higher in DVOA with pressure than Carr (17th).
  • Bridgewater (12th) ranked higher in DVOA without pressure than Carr (17th).
  • Bridgewater (22nd) ranked lower in passing DVOA than Carr (13th).

The inclusion of scrambles in the pressure splits (but not in passing DVOA as of now) is not enough to explain a nice example of Simpson's paradox in sports stats. This particular split comes back to Bridgewater being pressured on a league-high 36.0 percent of his plays compared to 20.5 percent for Carr (sixth-lowest). If these quarterbacks were pressured at a similar rate, Bridgewater would likely have the better overall DVOA too.

It shouldn't take too much thinking (or remembering if you happened to watch the games) to realize the offensive line was to blame for a lot more of our issues last season than Teddy was.

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2 hours ago, Nick Kuhn said:

Man you guys love to hate. Yeah, I remember a certain left handed throw that was intercepted in that game, it was a terrible decision and Teddy knows it. Interesting tidbit about that: had he just taken a sack there, Teddy would have been the first QB in the history of the NFL to have played a full season without throwing an interception on passes traveling less than 15 yards downfield. You highlighting his one bad decision ignores the several hundred times he made a good decision.

 

Like the Aaron Rodgers too. Did you look on facebook recently? See the little thing where over the last 8 games Aaron Rodgers has been outplayed by Blaine Gabbert? I bet you are wondering how that is possible? Well, that's because it isn't true and just happens to be an example of Simpson's paradox (where combined stats reflect the opposite result of individual stats due to inequivalent sampling).

 

Teddy is also a victim of Simpson's Paradox. But football outsiders can explain that better

It shouldn't take too much thinking (or remembering if you happened to watch the games) to realize the offensive line was to blame for a lot more of our issues last season than Teddy was.

It depends on your definition of several hundred good decisions. It's been well documented through film that on many plays there were WR's open and instead of trying to throw the ball to them he would instead check down to a shorter pass instead. I don't really care about having a high percentage of short throws, I want a guy who can put a ball into a tight spot all over the field and he just plain can't do that. Yeah, he can hit a short pass with a guy wide open with the best of them but that isn't what makes a QB great. I want to see our QB make a throw where the fans go "How the he!! did he do that?"  He held the ball too long, did not make quick decisions and too often waited too long to get the ball out which led to more pressure than necessary and the line looking worse.

Both Hill and Bradford were under pressure as well and did not have great blocking in front of them but they were decisive, made quick reads, got rid of the ball and sent enough of them downfield to keep the defense honest. 

And it isn't hate at all. He is a fine young man. He is good natured and keeps out of trouble and lord knows we need more young men like that but he is just not the QB that some of the rubes with purple colored glasses see him as. We saw much the same with Tarvaris Jackson and to a lesser extent Ponder. 

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34 minutes ago, fishersofmen said:

Big win for the team today. Not many folks thought they would go into Carolina and leave 3-0. If this offense can get their sh$t together this may be a fun year. Defense is the real deal.

Their Back!

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Edited by leech~~
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