Farmers' Almanac predicts numbing cold this winter

[glenn57]

i think i will wait to see what prof. monday from bemidji state says. hes a guest on kqrs morning show and real early this spring he predicted the weather we had this summer. and to a tee i might add.

[Chad711]

It gets cold here in the Winter? Really?

[Jordyn Kaufer]

it really doesnt get cold..

just a little chilly especially on those days where its "chilly" enough to close school for 2 days!

[LMITOUT]

Remember the days when they didn't call school just because it was cold? You know, when kids were tough and their parents were tougher?

Those were the days.....

[Mudcutter]

make my living in the weather-- forecaster on snowforecast.com-- give it a try-- first year running in the upper midwest--

but to the facts--

Farmers almanac bases their forecasts (supposedly a secret),, but a lot of the info comes from long term patterns. a little to detailed for here, but more in depth tools other than Nino's (la and el)are used. they are just as accurate for temp and precip over the long haul than anyone else- and likely more accurate.

as far as NOAA-- WHEN IS THE LAST TIME THEY PREDICTED A COLD WINTER FOR THE UPPER Midwest??? (this far out) not in my record keeping (8 years). It's simply not in their agenda, (remember, Dr Robert Hansen of Nasa, the king of forecasting the super EL nino's) is closely involved. NOAA is and always will be a patsy of the GW movement. One thing is for sure-- when NOAA predicts something warm.. maybe. But when they predict something cold, WATCH OUT. and another thing,, NOAA doesn't ever give actual numbers, just % of a chance of it going either way. Give us something to grade you on,, like if it's going to be above normal,, HOW MUCH above?? .1F is above as is 10F. they do this to protect themselves from looking to bad.

The atmosphere and weather have nearly infinite variability. NOAA and others try to pretend they have it figured out not only for next week, but in 20 years. They are just as good/bad as what they program their computers with. If they can't get 72 hours right, how are they getting 72 days right?? and the computer models have all been designed with flaws in them-- by humans.

Check into snowforecast.com starting in mid OCT for a fairly detailed outlook of the upcoming winter. a model free (old school) method will be used. Deviations from normal down to the degree along with actual #'s in snowfall will be displayed for major areas around the upper midwest for the wintertime period. The web sites design is for skiing people, but I hope to expand for ice thickness on freezeup for major lakes (snow= bad ice) and snow for major snowmobile areas ASAP.

IN a nut-- expect warm first half with below to avg precip with a cold/snowy 2nd half. First half being Dec-jan 15 and jan 16- end of FEB. Things are trending to the cold and snow moving up and overtaking the warm and less precip of the first half. The month of Sept in the tropics is a big player.

Jeff

[MN Shutterbug]

I heard a few years ago that the Farmer's Almanac's weather predictions are wrong 80% of the time. Do we really want to believe their forecast based on their success rate? We'll know when it gets here.

[half-dutch]

Hey Jeff,

Nice winter forecast: colder and snowier in the second half of winter. Works everytime doesn't it. Well duh!

Sorry dude, give me NOAA over a ski resort any day. NOAA is the same folks that put out the aviation weather for pilots and coastal weather for shipping. I think I'll follow the real pros on this one, the ones whose lives depend on it.

[LMITOUT]

NOAA is the same folks that put out the aviation weather for pilots and coastal weather for shipping. I think I'll follow the real pros on this one, the ones whose lives depend on it.

Lives depend on it? More like their govt funding depends on it.

I primarily use NOAA's weather forecasting but I've seen more horse-bleep forecasts this summer then ever before. Who's running the place anyway? A bunch of summer help? Absolutely horrible.

[harvey lee]

Seems the Farmaers Almanac is never very close. I say we will have ice this winter.

You can go to the bank on that.

[LMITOUT]

Hopefully sooner than later! Last year was great for ice and I wouldn't mind seeing a good old fashioned winter.

[Jordyn Kaufer]

Remember the days when they didn't call school just because it was cold? You know, when kids were tough and their parents were tougher?

Those were the days.....

nahh..

its the girls that arent as tough.

the guys are tougher but the girls.... there pretty wimpy.

but a lot of the girls are hot!

[Mudcutter]

Half-dutch-

for your info-- I supply pilots with the current weather for my "real" job. As far as NOAA,, they are the best in the business for the next 36 hours. That's what they get paid for,, to protect life and propety. Nothing agst them,, but they don't get paid nor have the time to focus on the long term. If you planning a trip a week in the future or 2 weeks in the dead of winter to Lake of the Woods or Lutsen, wouldn't you want a more accurate f-cast then rather then waiting tell it's allready happening??

Also--- as far as winters going like you said-- see JAN 2006 and snowfall for N.MN. The warmest on record. I could site numerous others examples, but NOAA does a great job with storms/ air masses when they are coming,, but not past 48-72 hours.

That's the focus of this site.

JEff

[half-dutch]

Maybe they didn't call off school in the city on the harshest days, but they sure did in the country and that goes back at least into the 50's when I was in grade school, and there isn't a state around that does not limit how many days they can do that and still claim a full school year. In 1962, I actually had to move in with an uncle and aunt in town to get to high school, since the roads were so bad due to excess snowfall that the school buses could only run on particular routes, and the school system had not only run out of snow days, they had to beg for a variance as it was. The county simply couldn't keep enough roads open; they barely got enough for the milk trucks to get to the milkers. A lot of the rest of us were SOL. It isn't just cold that calls school in winter, so does heavy snow. A lot of the gravel went to a sea of mud during snow melt and cut everybody off again.

You can talk about tough all you want, but the bottom line is the kindergarten and first graders who are probably the most easily hurt for the grades. For high schoolers it is the transportation, for the most part. So how tough is your transportation and how tough should your youngest children be, that is really what it's all about.

[Mudcutter]

Half-Dutch,

that's funny you mention 1962. It's one of the analog years (along with 6 others) that we are using for a tool in the toolbox for the upcoming winter. 1962 in FEB is likely what you are talking about-- if you lived in the upper midwest.

Record snowfall in JAN followed by record cold and avg snow in Feb with wind all around the Upper Midwest. This was not to be repeated until the late 70's- and really not seen anything like it other than maybe 82-83 and 96-97.

[half-dutch]

I don't think anybody got this summer right. Exceptionally cool here, but in other places exceptionally hot. We shivered and Seattle cooked. Actually the cool temperatures helped the corn survive the drought in a lot of areas in the state, but it is running something like a month behind normal maturation levels. An early frost date or even a normal one, might be disastrous for the state's farmers. Soybeans are no farther along relatively than the corn is either, and they are even more frost tender.

[Mudcutter]

If you go back to the spring and look at Climate center "forecat" for the Upper Midwest,, you will find two things that stand out;

we are going into a EL Nino (facts were that we were allready in one) and, expect near to above normal temps. Didn't happen.

Just like this early fall/winter. NOAA is still holding on to the idea we are in EL nino and some in NOAA say getting stronger. Not the case. Expect the Nino to decrease quicker than what NOAA says and led to a cooler winter, especially the later half.

This is a reactionary El Nino,, one that is just doing a balancing act, not a true EL NINO.

Look at the tropics-- the least tropical activity global in over 15 years--- obviously not due to warming of the oceans.

[LMITOUT]

Maybe they didn't call off school in the city on the harshest days, but they sure did in the country and that goes back at least into the 50's when I was in grade school, and there isn't a state around that does not limit how many days they can do that and still claim a full school year. In 1962, I actually had to move in with an uncle and aunt in town to get to high school, since the roads were so bad due to excess snowfall that the school buses could only run on particular routes, and the school system had not only run out of snow days, they had to beg for a variance as it was. The county simply couldn't keep enough roads open; they barely got enough for the milk trucks to get to the milkers. A lot of the rest of us were SOL. It isn't just cold that calls school in winter, so does heavy snow. A lot of the gravel went to a sea of mud during snow melt and cut everybody off again.

You can talk about tough all you want, but the bottom line is the kindergarten and first graders who are probably the most easily hurt for the grades. For high schoolers it is the transportation, for the most part. So how tough is your transportation and how tough should your youngest children be, that is really what it's all about.

Nope. I grew up on a farm where we had about an hour bus ride to school and the only time school was called off is if there were blizzard conditions and limited visibility. But, that was in ND where people are tougher, so it wouldn't surprise me if they called it off early just for the cold for MN schools. WIMPS!

Now everyone is soft and they call it off on a drop of a hat.

[JimBuck]

Does it really make sense to send a bus out in awful driving conditions to pick up 30-40 kids to learn for the day? I think the principals and others in charge of school closings are just being a bit more logical with these decisions. Tough or not, nobody wants to receive a call saying there child is in a car accident on the way to school. Trying to drive a school bus full of hyperactive gradeschoolers is not easy and I can only imagine the pressure a bus driver would have in bad weather. I'm not trying to argue, just an opinion. Cheers.

[leech~~]

Hey now, it make's good "John" reading material! I say, when the ice comes. I'm right behind you guys!

[glenn57]

Hopefully sooner than later! Last year was great for ice and I wouldn't mind seeing a good old fashioned winter.

in northern mn there was good/great first ice until the 2nd weekend of dec when 12-15 inches of snow got dumped then it was slushville, especially the small lakes. the bigger ones where somewhat better.

[Mudcutter]

will be out with a winter outlook for the upper midwest (Dec-FEb) focusing on N.MN, N.WIsky,Upper Mich, areas in about 3 weeks. Noaa will issue their outlook around 10/20 for the following 3 months.

It's up to you to judge who's more right or more wrong.

Once again,, this is the first year of us doing a detailed f-cast for this area of the country. I will focus on snow, yes; but more on snow/temps during freeze up of major lakes and later on, trying to get the word out on potential major snowstorms and polar outbreaks from over a week out. Basically, trying to put a more upper midwest perspective on things outside of the major resorts of the Rockies, where previous focus has been in years past with this site.

It's totally FREE-

Give it a look- the upper midwest will be on and running in early OCT.

http://snowforecast.com/ --- check out the promo flick.

JEff

[Mudcutter]

will be out with a winter outlook for the upper midwest (Dec-FEb) focusing on N.MN, N.WIsky,Upper Mich, areas in about 3 weeks. Noaa will issue their outlook around 10/20 for the following 3 months.

It's up to you to judge who's more right or more wrong.

Once again,, this is the first year of us doing a detailed f-cast for this area of the country. I will focus on snow, yes; but more on snow/temps during freeze up of major lakes and later on, trying to get the word out on potential major snowstorms and polar outbreaks from over a week out. Basically, trying to put a more upper midwest perspective on things outside of the major resorts of the Rockies, where previous focus has been in years past with this site.

It's totally FREE-

Give it a look- the upper midwest will be on and running in early OCT.

http://snowforecast.com/ --- check out the promo flick.

JEff

check out the forecast for Lutsen area for the coming storm.

compare it to NOAA---. http://snowforecast.com/LutsenMountains