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  • Posts

    • In my first post.....stressed REPUTABLE polls. Trump twitters everyday about polls saying he is ahead. So on topic what is your number line?

    • I have been looking at houses for the last five years.  Only thing close to what I want is a Yetti and still not totally sold on them.  Two reasons why i have not bought one,  quality and price.  I cannot justify $20k for one especially if its built with poor craftsmanship.  I will buy someday but I can still catch fish out of my portable.


      I think you could get into the market if you can produce a quality product at a fair price.  A lot of good business advice here also.   Unless you have a pile of cash you can afford to lose,  start small and grow as business dictates.

    • 8 hours ago, pushbutton said:

      No......but "brexit" was polling within the 4 percent margin of error before the vote . Cant imagine any one of those 272 in the 8 percent  and above range flipping.  Suppose anything is possible, couldn't ever imagine Trump being considered a serious candidate either. 

      That's not what the stories at the time said.  There was definitely a surprise factor there. 

      And note in the Washington post piece that only 3 of 10 polling organizations called the result within the margin of error.  So, nice try but incorrect.

      Here's why the majority of Brexit polls were wrong



      Why were polls so wrong about Brexit?   Monday, 4 Jul 2016 | 12:17 AM ET | 01:54


      It was a result that forced the ouster of the British Prime Minister, sent shockwaves across financial markets and raised doubts over the fate and composition of the European Union.

      Just how did experts get it this wrong?

      The U.K. EU referendum vote prompted a global massive market selloff as markets were priced in expecting a remain outcome. More than two trillion dollars were wiped out globally, the largest drop on record.

      Leading up to voting day, the vast majority of polls predicted the remain side would prevail, however the final results gave the leave side a victory margin of more than one million votes.

      According to SurveyMonkey's Chief Research Officer, Jon Cohen, young voter turnout and the death of Lawmaker Jo Cox are the likely largest factors in the discrepancy between polls and the final outcome.

      "The Remain campaign was heavily dependent on support among younger voters and they simply didn't show up," Cohen told CNBC.

      The murder of Cox in the days leading up to the vote, triggered new challenges in polling, even though it was difficult to determine how the tragedy would influence polling.

      "After the assassination, the Remain side became more vocal and were willing to share their opinions about Brexit than were leave voters," Cohen said. "It was a very difficult environment to gauge an opinion in."

      John MacDougall | AFP | Getty Images

      A poster featuring a Brexit vote ballot with 'out' tagged is on display at a book shop window.

      Yet many are wondering, how in an age of unprecedented information and data, could the majority of polls predict a wrong outcome.

      "The polls really showed a close-in contest until the very end," Cohen clarified. "But I think we still need to dig in on what happened in those final days to show such a strong movement for Remain that ultimately dissipated on election day."

      The inaccurate Brexit prediction is just one of multiple misses over recent years, including last year's U.K. general election, the Scottish referendum in 2014 and most recently during Bernie Sanders' upset over Hillary Clinton during the Michigan primary......



      Here’s why pollsters and pundits got Brexit wrong

      By Chris Hanretty June 24

      A European Union flag, with a hole cut in the middle, flies at half-mast outside a home in Knutsford Cheshire, Britain. (Christopher Furlong/Getty Images)

      Late Thursday night, voters in the English city of Newcastle chose to remain in the European Union. Pollsters had predicted that voters there and elsewhere in Britain would have voted Remain by a considerable margin. In the end, Remain won by the tiniest of margins, taking 50.7 percent of the vote in Newcastle.

      Over the next six hours, results from across the United Kingdom showed that British voters were tearing up the script and starting again. Not only did they turn out to vote at higher rates than in any previous U.K.-wide referendum, they also voted to Leave at higher rates than most had predicted. In the end, almost 52 percent of voters chose to exit the European Union.


      Before we move on to discussing the consequences of this shock vote, it’s important to think about what this says about our ability to predict, and render intelligible, referendums of this kind. There are four main points to make.

      First, we did not see this coming. For some weeks now, Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks have been tracking referendum forecasts. They consider a wide range of sources, from forecasting models based on polls, to citizen forecasts, to betting markets. None of these methods saw a Leave outcome as the most likely outcome. Ordinary citizens came closest, putting the probability of ‘Brexit’ at 55.2 percent, closely followed by an average of polls at 55.6 percent. The least accurate forecasting method was to infer probabilities from betting markets. Fisher and Horrocks, on their morning of poll update, reported an implied probability of just 23 percent. Ninety minutes after the close of poll, this market-derived probability had fallen to just 11.3 percent.

      Second, this was not a systematic polling failure of the same magnitude as last year’s U.K. general election, where opinion polls badly underestimated the Conservatives’ chance of victory. There are very many ways to combine polls, but a simple average of the last poll released by each polling company predicts that Remain would get 51 percent, three percentage points off the final result. Three of 10 polling companies published final figures which were within the margin of error of the final result. Two of these companies conducted their polling online, and generally online polls — which had provided lower figures for Remain throughout the campaign — were more accurate. Although the polling industry would have preferred to have nailed it “on average,” they have not performed as badly as they did last year, and remain acutely aware of the potential ways in which their polls can fail.

    • BlackLundPro gets his 4th weekly win of the year this week. 3rd, 9th, 11th, and 19th place along with 5 qualifying points from Keselowski earned his team 319 points. Congrats BlackLundPro!


      BlackLundPro - 319

      Huckfin - 310

      juneau4 - 288

      Fishin-Novice - 282

      Jar Jar - 239

      88fan - 223

      cat-man - 223

      musky999 - 219

      jwhjr - 217

      mnwildman - 217

      gregg52 - 205

      fishing star - 204

      yaggie - 190

      Rip_Some_Lip - 189

      Airjer - 149

      SwivelDigger - 137

      Moose - 11


      Total Points

      1  Fishin-Novice  9,068

      2  musky999  8,903

      3  gregg52  8,852

      4  jwhjr  8,767

      5  Rip_Some_Lip  8,702

      6  mnwildman  8,648

      7  88fan  8,607

      8  BlackLundPro  8,546

      9  yaggie   8,499

      10  Huckfin  8,487

      11  fishing star  8,400

      12  SwivelDigger  8,357

      13  juneau4  8,318

      14  cat-man  8,308

      15  Jar Jar  8,280

      16  Airjer  8,195

      17  Moose  6,783

    • 2 hours ago, Bear55 said:

      Nice find.

      Were the stories different?  Or just the headlines?  

      Sometimes stuff changes during a press run at any newspaper.  What was the date? 

      And who pointed it out?   Putin? 

    • Thought it was a possibility  that it was a troll, but never sure.   Heck, half the time I think Juice is a troll.


      I couldn't see any point to this trolling which usually seems to be designed to provoke outrage, unlike its post.  

      Edited by delcecchi
    • And there we have it...

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    • Bryce, 


      By my terms you've been having great shooting!  That might make it even tougher to call it a season but maybe be thankful for what it's been so far.  I'm sure you are but I guess I'm saying the harvest isn't just birds, it's the memories of the seasons that go past that keep that burning desire to see the next one come!


      You'll be out there hitting em again - focus on that.  It should help - I hope it does anyway.

    • 1 hour ago, delcecchi said:

      Huh?  Some confirmation I missed?


      Only for you! Getting a little off on spotting hit and run trolls there Del? :whistle: